Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way
From Crypto Voices by Matthew Mezinskis
April 20, 2026 · 1h 13m
About this episode
Matthew Mezinskis discusses Bitcoin modeling with Plan C, focusing on the flaws in traditional assumptions and the importance of methodology in long-term valuation.
In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today. The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections. One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation. Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanC Crypto Voices: Episode 198 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law…
People in this episode
Host: Matthew Mezinskis
Guest: Plan C
Topics covered
- Bitcoin modeling
- power law
- calendar time
- protocol time
- quantile regression
- data weighting
- long-term valuation
Keywords
- Bitcoin
- power law modeling
- calendar time
- protocol time
- quantile regression
- data weighting
- price projections
- valuation
- density bias
- median-based modeling
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