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DHUnplugged #801: Robot Takeover Begins
May 6, 2026
Unknown duration
DHUnplugged #800: 50-50 Market
Apr 29, 2026
1h 03m 55s
DHUnplugged #799: Out of Action Again
Apr 22, 2026
49m 42s
DHUnplugged #798: Market Immunity
Apr 15, 2026
1h 01m 08s
DHUnplugged #797: Transitory War Pricing
Apr 8, 2026
1h 02m 12s
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| Date | Episode | Topics | Guests | Brands | Places | Keywords | Sponsor | Length | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/6/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #801: Robot Takeover Begins | Good overall earnings season – still going strong Economic reports show a mixed picture – but still good enough Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines Markets PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Good overall earnings season - still going strong - Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough - Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam - Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines - EGGS - Breaking News! Markets - Are markets riding tariff refund wave? - Oil shoots up then slips back after Iran tensions rise and fall - New Highs - NAZ100 powering ahead - Huge Capex and OBBBA NEED A NEW CTP - CMG (last time was 2017) Ship Sailing - Seems that under the protection of the USA - a Maersk ship passed through the Strait - But how many can they do a day like this? - Oil down after a huge spike yesterday due to IRAN striking UAE Big Shakeup - US transportation stocks plunged after Amazon announced expanded logistics offerings that will turn it into a major competitor for parcel carriers and air freight companies. - The move is a threat not just to other couriers' grasp on e-commerce, but potentially to more profitable areas such as healthcare, which UPS and FedEx have made a central part of their strategies. - Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment, and parcel shipping to standalone customers, and its announcement "could be a watershed moment for North American freight transportation companies," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker. - FedEx Corp. shares fell 9.1% in their worst day in more than a year, while rival United Parcel Service Inc. dropped more than 10%. -- Logistics firms Forward Air Corp. and GXO Logistics Inc. suffered double-digit declines. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., among other truckers, slid almost 7%. --- FYI - Did you know... last year there was a total of 23.9 BILLION packages shipped in the US. 25% was delivered by Amazon, Fed and UPS delivered a third. Off the Hook - Chump Change - Elon Musk agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that he cheated Twitter shareholders by failing to properly disclose his growing stake in the social media company. - An Elon Musk revocable trust would pay the penalty to end the SEC’s lawsuit, which is still subject to court approval, and Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations. - The SEC said the deal would be the largest penalty the agency has levied against an entity or individual for allegedly failing to file a beneficial ownership report on time, but Musk’s attorney called it a “small fine”. - Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations, according to a filing on Monday. This could be something... - Sonos Inc. shares climbed after reporting revenue that jumped 8% and said that it is filing for tariff refunds totaling $40 million. - The company reported second quarter revenue of $282 million, up 8% year over year, and strong growth in international markets. - Sonos is forecasting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $20 million and $48 million for the current quarter - Are markets riding higher also on the tariff refunds? ---- The US government is paying back up to $166 billion in revenue it collected through sweeping global tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, with the first payments set to go out on May 11. AND - General Motors raised its 2026 guidance after significantly beating Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations following a roughly $500 million benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court decision to terminate and refund certain levies AKA - tariffs. OPEC? - In an unexpected announcement - The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East. - OPEC+ to raise June output quotas by 188,000 bpd - Most members cannot meet targets due to Hormuz closure - Quota increase removes UAE share after it left OPEC+ and OPEC (so just a make-up) - Meanwhile, they cannot meet the iutput as no place to put the oil.... --- This all looks and sounds good but there is no substance. ---- Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day (Biggest in OPEC). USA produces 13 Million .... Spirit Airlines - Goodbye - shutdown Saturday night at 3PM - The administration had floated a last-ditch bailout that would have given the federal government a controlling stake in the airline, but the proposal stalled amid resistance from key creditors, whose approval would have been required for the deal to go through. - Meanwhile, most ticket holders will get refunds. --- Already Jetblue and others are looking to fill the void by offering more flights from airports that Spirit serviced. -- Takes a low cost alternative off the market and potentially will be a negative for consumers - less competition - WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT BY BLOCKING JETBLUE MERGER JC - are you listening?? - Duolingo beats Q1 revenue estimates, driven by 21% growth in paid subscribers - CFO Gillian Munson says investments target long-term user retention - Duolingo aims for 100 million daily active users by 2028 - Guided a bit lower and a strategy shift toward prioritizing user experience and long-term retention over near-term monetization, as it invests in product quality and engagement to build a larger base of paying subscribers. (DUMB?) - Share down 8% CHIPS - Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and beating analysts’ estimates on the explosive growth of its chip business. - Revenue: 133.9 trillion Korean won ($89.96 billion) vs. 132.69 trillion won expected - Operating profit: 57.2 trillion won vs. 55.28 trillion won expected - The South Korean technology giant’s quarterly profit climbed more than 750% from a year earlier to a fresh record. - The company also posted record revenue, up about 70% year over year. AMD Reports Conf Call: AMD paired strong current-quarter execution with a more ambitious long-term AI and server CPU outlook. The biggest positives were the stronger EPYC trajectory, rising confidence in MI450/Helios demand, and the upgraded server CPU TAM view. - The company now sees the server CPU TAM growing more than 35% annually to over $120 billion by 2030, up from its prior long-term view. - The main caution points were second-half PC and Gaming demand pressure from higher memory and component costs. - Margins 55% - Stock up 15% AH Apple Chips Deal? - Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions with Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. about producing main processors for its devices in the US, as a secondary option beyond Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. - The discussions with Intel and Samsung are preliminary and have not resulted in any orders, with Apple having concerns about using non-TSMC technology. - Apple is considering additional suppliers due to supply-chain disruptions, including recent shortages driven by the build-out of AI data centers and higher demand for Macs, with CEO Tim Cook saying the company has less flexibility in the supply chain than normal. - Discussions - yet Intel up 14% on the news (after a 100% run in April) Flashback - 2 weeks - Remember when OpenAi came out with some news that they missed revenue and user growth goals? - Took down tech for a day a couple of weeks ago.... Tech earnings - Overall tech earnings were solid. - Bbig takeaway is that the group (MAG7) are still spending a buttload on expansion into AI etc. Capex $$$$ - Meta was hit on theor outlook (which is why they came back and announced further layoffs) AI Layoffs - Recall - "AI will not take jobs" - More announced this week - Coinbase today - How long until the robots take over? - Recent Announcements AI Job Cuts EGGS - Consumption of eggs is associated with a lower risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer's Disease for those 65 years and older, according to researchers at Loma Linda University Health - Eating one egg per day for at least five days a week reduces risk of Alzheimer’s by up to 27%, researchers found. --- More: Eggs are known to be a source of key nutrients that support brain health. Sabaté said. Eggs provide choline, a precursor to acetylcholine and phosphatidylcholine, both of which are critical for memory and synaptic function, the study stated. Eggs also contain lutein and zeaxanthin—carotenoids that accumulate in brain tissue and are associated with improved cognitive performance and reduced oxidative stress. Eggs also contain key omega-3 fatty acids, and yolks are particularly rich in phospholipids, which constitute nearly 30% of total egg lipids and are essential for neurotransmitter receptor function. LIV Losing Saudi Arabia - LIV Golf will lose its financial backing from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund after the 2026 season, the fund announced Thursday. - "PIF has made the decision to fund LIV Golf only for the remainder of the 2026 season," a representative for the PIF, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told ABC News on Thursday. - "The substantial investment required by LIV Golf over a longer term is no longer consistent with the current phase of PIF's investment strategy," the statement continued. "This decision has been made in light of PIF's investment priorities and current macro dynamics. - Looking for Private Equity to step in Cars - The Beijing Auto Show that opened to the public this week is a showcase for how hypercompetition in China has driven new car prices in the world's largest car market to ?a fraction of the level of the next-largest market, the U.S. - In China, there are more than 200 battery-powered models, including hybrids, for sale at less than the equivalent of $25,000, according to DCar, an information and trading platform. - Plenty at the $10k - $12k level Death Squads - Friday, The White house announced plans to add firing squads, electrocution and gas asphyxiation as alternative methods of executing people convicted of the gravest federal crimes - Only THREE federal executions in the last 50 years Weekly Picks Ideas Worst Stocks this Year Worst Stocks   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE WINNER OF THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for NETGEAR   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 4/29/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #800: 50-50 Market✨ | market analysisinvesting trends+3 | — | SpotifyAmazon Music+1 | IranStraits of Hormuz | SP500NASDAQ+5 | — | 1h 03m 55s | |
| 4/22/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #799: Out of Action Again✨ | stock marketinvesting+3 | — | SpotifyAmazon Music/Podcasts | — | SP500NASDAQ+5 | — | 49m 42s | |
| 4/15/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #798: Market Immunity✨ | market trendsinflation+3 | — | GoldmanJPM+2 | Michigan | PCEinflation+6 | — | 1h 01m 08s | |
| 4/8/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #797: Transitory War Pricing✨ | economicsfood inflation+4 | — | SpotifyAmazon Music/Podcasts | Pakistan | payroll reportfood inflation+6 | — | 1h 02m 12s | |
| 4/1/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #796: Broken Trump Card✨ | market analysisinternational equities+3 | — | — | Iran | marketsinternational equities+3 | — | 1h 00m 01s | |
| 3/25/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #795: Johnny B Good✨ | market correctioncrude oil+4 | — | SpotifyAmazon Music+1 | IranUnited States | market correctioncrude oil+6 | — | 1h 02m 05s | |
| 3/18/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #794: It’s A Drone World After-All✨ | oil pricesmarket manipulation+4 | John Dvorak Jr. | GeminiJSD+1 | Iran | oil pricesmarket manipulation+6 | — | 1h 07m 30s | |
| 3/11/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #793: Mission Accomplished?✨ | oil pricesnatural gas+4 | John Dvorak Jr. | Euro Nat GasOil+3 | Strait of HormuzIran+1 | oil pricesEuro Nat Gas+6 | — | 1h 07m 05s | |
| 2/25/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #792: Disrupter < Disrupters✨ | China marketstariffs+4 | — | FedExApple | ChinaMexico | tariffsChina markets+6 | — | 1h 00m 48s | |
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| 2/18/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #791: AI Overload✨ | AIApple+4 | — | AppleWarner Brothers+1 | China | AI OverloadApple+5 | — | 1h 10m 35s | |
| 2/11/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #790: Hang On!✨ | SilverGold+5 | — | BitcoinSpotify+5 | — | SilverGold+8 | — | 1h 06m 59s | |
| 2/4/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #789: Crash Test For Dummies | WORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn’t change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year’s levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories. — The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns. — FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009. INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   S3XY No More - Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus). - Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are? - Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't? - Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing. But... - Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much. - With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly. - Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla - Tesla shares dropped after earnings FED CHAIR PICK - Drumroll: Kevin Warsh - Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability - Deficit reducer? - More hawkish than market expected? - Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning And then... - Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. -It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record. - It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash. - The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination. - However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10% - GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record - Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago - ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK -- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely? Fed Statement and Rates - Fed out with statement - no change on rates - Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong - Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term Apple Earnings - Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended. - Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers’ iPhone demands. - The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period. - Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion. - “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we’re seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said. - Stock up slightly - no great moves.... Blue Origin - Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies. - The decision reflects Blue Origin’s commitment to the nation’s goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence. - The pause in tourist flights grounds the company’s reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness. - Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 1/28/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #788: TTM and Back | Silver and Gold – Still Going. Big week for earnings. Fed decision on Wednesday. Nat Gas price exploding higher. US Dollar drops hard over past few days. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - What we learned from Davos - President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off - January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying - S&P 500: All-time highs going into earnings Markets - Silver and Gold - Still Going - Big week for earnings - Fed decision on Wednesday - Nat Gas price exploding - US Dollar drops hard over past few days Can't Keep Track Anymore -Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year. - In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS". - South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February - KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news - S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments Davos - 2026 - What we learned - Not much - Same bifurcated view of the world - Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan" - So, no tariffs - (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....) Gold and Silver - Off to the races - Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day - Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move - GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust) - Gold above $5,000 per ounce - - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up| - USD weakness Economy - Still Strong - The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. - Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. - Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter. Amazon - Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan - First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder - CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues ---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point? - Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce - Company still has 1.5 million employees Comeback? - Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned. - Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked - Frontier tried - Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked Booz Cancelled - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times. - The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.” - Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement. - Why does Booz have tax records in the first place? - Stock down 50% since end of 2024 Private Credit - BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy - The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025. - This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter. - The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025. - Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33% Zoom Communications - Valuation of Anthropic stake - The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet. - From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln. - This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo. - Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth. UNH and Health Stocks - DOWN 20% today - The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026. - The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits. - UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers: - - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%. - - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%. Tech Earnings Microsoft (MSFT) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations: Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion - Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth - Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms (META) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations: EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion - Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth - Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy. Tesla (TSLA) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations: EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion - Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago - Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand. - Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap. Apple (AAPL) Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close) Wall Street Expectations - EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth - This is Apple’s most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability. Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter. Company Ticker Report Date Est. EPS Key Focus Area Microsoft MSFT Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $3.92 Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending Meta Platforms META Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $8.17 Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance Tesla TSLA Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.45 Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates Apple AAPL Thu, Jan 29 (AMC) Varies iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout ServiceNow NOW Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.88 Enterprise AI software adoption rates IBM IBM Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $4.28 Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance *AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates) Boeing - The company’s airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts’ expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting. - Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024. The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier. Another MoonShot - U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022. - It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations. - The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week. -Up 68% YTD - Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas Government - Not Again! - Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again - A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026. - The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026 - The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues This is precious - Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party - He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention - Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says - Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says - Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says - THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political. - NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.       Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 1/21/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #787: The Elitists Convene | Here we go again – Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs DAVOS – Elitists are Meeting Suicide Coaches? Hedge funds – finally a good year! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Here we go again - Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs - DAVOS - Elitists are Meeting - Suicide Coaches? - Hedge funds - finally a good year! Markets - Silver and Gold - ATH - Selling off after Greenland threat - Netflix - Saga continues Davos - 2026 - Economic Confab that often brings out the elite (elitists) - Many watch for their key points and do the opposite - Trump going, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi not - Why is Zelensky going? - Kushner, Bessent, Little Marco will be attending with Trump - Did you know - Larry Fink is the interim Co-Chair. - The CEOs that you would expect that love the limelight ) (Jensen, Nadella etc) World Economic Forum Report (Davos) - Due out Wednesday - expected to show that geopolitical confrontation is the top concern this year - Rising Inflation - Economic Downturn - Asset Bubbles - High debt burdens - Any of those could be any year and anyone in the world that is breathing could have made that list WEF List NEXT - Greenland - Sell or Else! - Trump promises 100% that he will impose tariffs and follow through - The tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1 and shoot up to 25% on June 1, Trump said. - Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland - Supposedly in response to EU allies moving troops into Greenland - Greenland protests with - Make America Go Away hats - 200% tariff threatened in champagne and wines (Mad at Macron) Oh - and Gaza - The new Board of Peace - Trump names himself 'Board of Peace' chair under October plan - Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. - Supposedly Putin has said he was also invited to be on the board. - Purpose? Officially, the Board is mandated to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict... Saks - bankrupt - Chapter 11 - Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase Needless Markup (aka Neiman Marcus) - Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. - Amazon The tech company invested $475 million into Saks’ acquisition of Neiman Marcus in December 2024, a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.” - Amazon threatened more “drastic remedies” if Saks doesn’t heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee. - Amazon initially invested because it thought Saks would start selling its products on Amazon’s website and the tech company would offer technology and logistics expertise.| - Amazon's attorneys: “Saks continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owed to its retail partners.” Suicide Coaches - “This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is these AI models became suicide coaches,” Benioff told CNBC’s Sarah Eisen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland. - In 2018, Benioff said social media should be treated like a health issue, and said the platforms should be regulated like cigarettes: “They’re addictive, they’re not good for you.” - “Bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated,” he said Tuesday, “and now you’re kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence.” China - China 2025 new yuan loans 16.27 trln yuan, lowest since 2018 - Dec new yuan loans beat forecast - PBOC announces targeted monetary policy easing - "From the asset side, amid the property market adjustment, the private sector including households and firms showed insufficient willingness to add leverage, while government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage and the economy." - Now what is happening is that $ that used to go into real estate is heading for stocks/risk assets. - Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally. - - Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold. - - - Regulators made the move to rein in potential froth in financial markets, with a fund manager saying it sends a clear signal that they want a slow bull market, not an overheated one. --- Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The move, which applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing bourses, underscores regulators’ efforts to rein in potential froth in financial markets. More China - China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year. - After the one-child policy - now government is pushing or more births - Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949 - Government tactics range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers. Bank Earnings - Generally pretty good! - Yield curve is helping in a big way - steepening - Goldman beats, BAC beast Morgan Stanley bets etc. etc. - Goldman: The company said profit jumped 12% from a year earlier to $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, on gains across its capital markets businesses. - Morgan Stanley: Last Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations on the back of strong revenue from wealth management. Fed Chair - Over the weekend, Hassett thinks Trump is right not to have him in that position (What a sap! Good he is not in running anymore) - Rick Reider and Warsh are front-runners - Who ever kisses the most ass should win - Warsh would actually be a good pick - experience and smart guy that is level headed - Meanwhile - all of a sudden Trump says he is not looking to fire Powell (maybe h wants him to resign) Netflix/Warner Brothers Update - Netflix now plans to pay $27.75 per WBD share entirely in cash to acquire WBD’s streaming platform HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film studio. - In reaction tot he hostile takeover bid from Paramount/Skydance - The last offer was unanimously approved by the BOD - NFLX Earnings ..... --- Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 55 cents, estimated ------Revenue: $12.05 billion vs $11.97 billion, estimated - Stock down AH Inflation (Did we talk about this?) - Even though we are told there is little inflation... - Consumer Price Index increases 0.3% in December - Food, rents were the main drivers of consumer inflation - Underlying inflation rises a moderate 0.2% - Food prices surged 0.7% Planes! - Boeing outsold Airbus last year - First time since 2018 - BA stock made an ATH last week Bond Vigilantes - Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys over finance concerns tied to America’s budget shortfall. - The move comes amid increasing tensions with the U.S. over Greenland as President Donald Trump pushes for control of the island. - AkademikerPension said it plans to have closed its position of around $100 million in U.S. Treasurys by the end of the month. - 10 YR yields moved up again to 4.3% - What if.....??? (Mutual assured destruction?) Hedgies - Hedge fund investors posted gains of about 12.6% last year, the best returns since 2009, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. - Funds run by industry giants such as D.E. Shaw & Co. and Millennium Management posted double-digit returns, with Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II fund scoring a 34% gain. - Hedge funds secured net inflows of $71 billion during the first three quarters of last year, a major reversal after a decade of outflows, with the industry's giants being among the major beneficiaries.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 1/14/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #786: All In A Weeks Work | Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia – USA is the world’s Cop again? More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie – all in week’s work.. Retail investors in control – don’t care about the noise. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia - USA is the world's Cop again? - More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie - all in week's work.. - Retail investors in control - don't care about the noise Markets - DJIA plowing ahead - NASDAQ on fire - what can stop this? - Nuclear stocks back in play - Defense names on the move - Interesting economic news. FIRST - President Donald Trump said drug “cartels are running Mexico,” and suggested the U.S. military could start land strikes against them there. - The comments come on the heels of suggestions that Trump could take military action in Cuba and Colombia, and to annex Greenland. - The Trump administration has reportedly carried out 35 known strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, killing 115 individuals. - I will be going to Mexico later this week for a couple of days..... Retail Ruling - Retail traders have extended a buying spree into the new year, following a record-setting performance in 2025, with purchases in the first four trading days of January hitting the second-highest level in almost eight months. - Individual investors have bought about $10.1 billion of US equities since the start of the year, mainly via exchange-traded funds, far exceeding the 12-month weekly average. - Retail investors' confidence has helped stabilize markets during recent pullbacks, and if they keep snapping up equities, gains in the US stock market are likely to persist, according to analysts. Employment Report - 4.4% Unemployment Rate - Nonfarm Payroll Employment: U.S. employers added +50,000 jobs in December 2025. This came in below economists' expectations (consensus around 60,000–73,000) and was a slowdown from the downwardly revised +56,000 in November. - Unemployment Rate: Edged down slightly to 4.4% (from a revised 4.5% in November), contrary to forecasts of 4.5%. The number of unemployed people remained around 7.5 million, showing little change. - Full-Year 2025 Performance: Total payroll growth for the year was just +584,000 jobs (average monthly gain of +49,000), marking one of the weakest years for hiring since 2020 (impacted by the pandemic). This is a sharp drop from +2.0 million added in 2024 (average +168,000 monthly). -Revisions to Prior Months: -- October 2025: Revised down to -173,000 (from -105,000, reflecting federal government buyouts and shutdown effects). -- November 2025: Revised down by 8,000 to +56,000. -- Combined October–November: 76,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. GDP - HOT - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voting FOMC member) on CNBC says it is very surprising how strong GDP growth is; says labor market is clearly cooling; says inflation still too high; has confidence housing inflation will trend down - Q3 at +3.8% and Atlanta GDP NOW is predicting that Q4 will come in at +5.1% More Eco - Productivity (Prelim Q3): 4.9% vs. 2.5% consensus - Productivity measures output per hour worked. A jump to 4.9% (almost double the consensus) suggests businesses are producing much more per labor hour than expected. Prior was revised up to 4.1% from 3.3%, so the trend is strengthening. WOW! Unit Labor Costs (Prelim Q3): -1.9% vs. +0.8% consensus - Unit labor costs measure labor cost per unit of output. A negative number means costs per unit are falling. Prior revised to -2.9% from +1.0%, so costs have been dropping sharply. -Could be due to technology adoption, automation, or efficiency improvements. Post-pandemic restructuring and leaner operations may have boosted output without adding labor. OOOOOOOPS - White House official says Truth Social disclosure of December jobs report was an "inadvertent release"; says White House will review protocols - CNBC What next? - President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details. - Trump wrote on social media that the American Public will no longer be "ripped off" by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more. - Maybe because of this: Hours before his message on Friday, Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, said on X: “Trump promised to cap credit card interest rates at 10% and stop Wall Street from getting away with murder. Instead, he deregulated big banks charging up to 30% interest on credit cards.” - BUT! Credit card companies will not be forced to issue credit - right? It will hurt people that need credit for business, personal or other needs. Then there was this: - Mortgage rates fell sharply on Friday, a day after President Donald Trump said on social media that he is instructing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. - “This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” he said in the Truth Social post. - Still not clear where the money will come from and hot this actually works with the current structure of Fannie and Freddie - Talk of Fannie/Freddie IPO? --- Both are still still in conservatorship and book value per share still negative - SO WHERE DOES MONEY COME FROM? OHHHHH - How about this - 4PM browbeating for the Defense companies - RTX was in the hotseat (as were others) taking the wrath of Pres Trump saying that they were basically fat and happy and ripping off the taxpayer - No more dividends and no more buybacks was the call - Stocks dropped 5% into the close and then more after - 30 minutes later - conversation changed and the idea of a move from $1T in spending for the defense budget should move to $1.5T in 2027. ----- Where does that money come from? - Stocks JUMPED! Can't Ignore this - Trump suggesting that Corporations and institutional investors cannot buy single family homes - “People live in homes, not corporations,” he said. - The argument is that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans. - It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. - Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%. Then there is this... - DOJ putting he screws to Powell - The Trump administration has ramped up its pressure campaign on the U.S. central bank, threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments he made to Congress about a building renovation project, prompting the Fed chief to call the move a "pretext" to gain more influence over the ?setting of interest rates. - The latest development in a long-running effort by U.S. President Donald Trump to push the Fed to dramatically lower rates had immediate fallout in Washington and on global markets. - Powell came out with a video over the weekend. - Initially futures were down <1% - market opened all all ok... With all of that.... - What are we not seeing any news about? - EPSTEIN FILES Nuclear back in Front - Meta Platforms Inc. is set to become one of the world’s biggest corporate buyers of nuclear power, striking a series of deals to purchase electricity from existing plants and support new reactor projects. - The agreements could end up totaling more than 6 gigawatts — that’s enough to power a city of about 5 million homes. The deals include purchasing electricity from three existing Vistra Corp. plants and support several small reactors that Sam Altman-backed Oklo Inc. and Bill Gates-backed TerraPower LLC are planning to build over the next decade. - Still most of these SMR companies are speculative at best as they have not actually powered anything and have no revenue - YET. Greenland - Where are we on this? - Bribe the Greenlanders? - Military action? - Buy from Denmark? xAI News - Grok - seems to be coming along - been using it more lately - XAI reported a net loss of $1.46 billion for the September quarter, up from $1 billion in the first quarter, according to internal documents. - The company spent $7.8 billion in cash in the first nine months of the year, and its goal is to build AI that is self-sufficient and will eventually power humanoid robots like Optimus. - XAI revenue nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $107 million for the three month period ended Sept. 30, 2025, according to financial documents shared with investors and reviewed by Bloomberg. - From Grok: Worth $230 BILLION after the last money raise of $20 BILLION - Also from Grok; Real value is probably around $40-$80 billion is valued on fundamentals - the market of $230 Billion is moonshot hype. GM Next - GM's $6 billion charge linked to EV investment reduction - Most of the writedown tied to supplier payouts for canceled work - GM is latest automaker to walk back EV plans after federal policy changes - - This is a bad way to do business - Governmenet policy changes quickly Apple and Google - Apple is teaming up with Google to use Gemini models for an AI-powered Siri - Reports swirled in August that Apple was in early talks the search giant to use a custom Gemini model to power a new iteration of Siri. - Apple has mostly stood on the sidelines of the AI frenzy that’s swept up Wall Street since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. - Google now market cap > $4T - - Sooooooo Apple is not going to come up with their own AI   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 1/7/26 | ![]() DHUnplugged #785: January Effect | LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? Upgrades all around the AI trade again… January Effect Defense and Oil Related – Let’s Go! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - CTP Cup - We have a winner! - Kitchen Cabinets rejoice! - Buffett is retired (kind of) - ALL TIME HIGHS - DJIA Leading so far in 2026 Markets - LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? - Upgrades all around the AI trade again... - January Effect - Defense and Oil Related! - Calling BS on Venezuela economic plans Doctor Copper - Copper surpassed $13,000 a ton for the first time due to a renewed rush to ship metal to the US. - The rally has been underpinned by the ongoing threat of import tariffs from President Donald Trump, causing US copper prices to trade at a premium to those on the London Metal Exchange. - The market has been driven by uncertainty over future US tariff policy, with analysts warning that the rest of the world could run short of copper due to low inventories outside the US. - Huge inventory build due to uncertainty Copper Chart Following up on that...Some Questions - Isn't the massive inventory build we are seeing due to uncertainly? - Lots bought before tariffs went into effect - then tariffs reduced... - Will there be a hangover from a the pull-forward like we have seen in the past? Best markets for 2025 Colombia: +80% South Korea (KOSPI): +76% Ghana: +79% Brazil (Bovespa): +34% Japan (Nikkei 225): +26% Europe STOXX 600: +19% China (Shanghai Composite): +18% U.S. S&P 500: +17% U.S. Nasdaq: +21% U.S. Dow Jones: +12% US Dollar - Basket USD is at 8 year LOW - Yen at key intervention level (again) - NO MANIPULATION HERE! -- -- Gold/Silver betting trend continues... - What happened to -> "a strong USD is in the best interests of the USA"? Monday Markets - For no apparent reason....(could it be the Venezuela news???) - Markets JUMPED - Oil and Defense stocks moved! - DJIA up ~ 600 Points ---These stocks were about 500 points of the 600: - GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc - CAT Caterpillar Inc - JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co - CVX Chevron Corp - V Visa Inc ---- GS is 1/2 the DJIA gains for 2026 Here we go... - Elon Musk's Grok is generating sexualized images of women and minors - users are taking pictures of others and telling Grok to "remove their clothes" or "put them in a thong bikini" - review of public requests sent to Grok over a single 10-minute-long period at midday U.S. Eastern Time last Friday tallied 102 attempts by X users to use Grok to digitally edit photographs of people so that they would appear to be wearing bikinis. - Politicians in France ask prosecutors to investigate; India demands answers - Experts have long warned Grok owner xAI about potential misuses of AI-generated content - Ministers in France have reported X to prosecutors and regulators over the disturbing images, saying in a statement on Friday the "sexual and sexist" content was "manifestly illegal." India's IT ministry said in a letter to X's local unit that the platform failed to prevent Grok's misuse by generating and circulating obscene and sexually explicit content. - Guardrails not very tight along the track - Surprised? TESLA - Sales awful - Stock holdingup - BYD Co. outsold Tesla Inc. in Europe’s two largest electric-vehicle markets last year as the Chinese automaker continues its global expansion. - BYD registered more than twice as many new vehicles in December as Tesla did in Germany, and outperformed Tesla in the UK with 51,422 registrations compared to Tesla’s 45,513. - BYD delivered 2.26 million EVs in 2025 to Tesla’s 1.64 million, and has made strong inroads in the UK where Chinese brands have been attracting consumers with cheaper sticker prices. - NVDA announced it is expanding autonomous driving sector INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   Silver and Gold - As we predicted - Gold and silver prices fell Wednesday after exchange operator CME Group again hiked the margins on precious metal futures. - CME Group said in a statement Tuesday that the decision was made “as per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.” - That caused some to sell positions to bring margin requirement in check - - Should be temporary until metals find their margin equilibrium Bitcoin - Starting the year off right - Up 7% in 2026 after a very poor 2025 - Crypto moving as well - Safe haven trade, catch up trade or who-knows-what-the-hell trade? January Effect - The January Effect is a market phenomenon where stock prices—especially small-cap stocks—tend to rise more in January than in other months. - Tax-loss selling in December: Investors often sell losing positions at year-end to offset capital gains for tax purposes. - Reinvestment in January: After the new year, they buy back stocks, creating upward pressure. - Bonus and cash inflows: Year-end bonuses and new investment allocations often hit the market in January. - Small-caps up almost 3% YTD Impressive - Investors fortunate enough to own Berkshire since 1965, when Buffett took over, realized a return of about 6,100,000%, far above the S&P 500's approximately 46,000% return including dividends. - Buffett is now officially retired - said to be one (or the) greatest investors of our time - Buffett, 95, will remain chairman and plans to keep going every day to Berkshire's office in Omaha, Nebraska, about 2 miles (3.2 km) east of his home, and help Abel. - They still have not completely figured out who will run the equity portfolio after Todd Combs left to join JPM Kitchen Cabinet Relief - Steep tariffs on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities have been delayed by the Trump administration. - It’s the latest roller coaster of Trump's tariff wars since he returned to office last year. - The administration is also scaling back on a steep tariff proposed on Italian pasta that would have put the rate at 107%. Let's talk Venezuela - The idea that the US is just going to come in an turn everything rosy is dumb - overly simplistic thesis --- Sets up a bad global potential for overthrowing governments - where does it stop - The idea that US companies are going to go in there and drill and US is going to reimburse for costs? --- The country is allied with Russia and China - not US (at this time) - This is reminiscent of when we opened the doors to Cuba - we opened it up and no one benefited. Maybe this time will be different. - BUT Venezuela owns the largest proven oil reserves in the world, holding approximately 303 billion barrels as of the end of 2024, which is nearly 18–19% of global reserves. So, that is something. VZ Oil Production Drug Price Hikes - Drugmakers plan to raise U.S. prices on at least 350 branded medications including vaccines against COVID, RSV and shingles and blockbuster cancer treatment Ibrance, even as the Trump administration pressures them for cuts - The number of price increases for 2026 is up from the same point last year, when drugmakers unveiled plans for raises on more than 250 drugs. The median of this year's price hikes is around 4% - in line with 2025. -Drugmakers also plan to cut the list prices on around nine drugs. That includes a more than 40% cut for Boehringer Ingelheim's diabetes drug Jardiance and three related treatments. Greenland - What are the odds????? (Prediction Markets are on it! https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/market-details?id=791099793%7C20290101%7C0%7C&detail=contract_details) - “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” In Closing - The "AI NOT LESS PEOPLE WORKING" - Scam - “I would say that we’re actually not hiring fewer people,” AMDs Lisa Su told CNBC’s Jon Fortt on Tuesday from the CES conference in Las Vegas. “Frankly, we’re growing very significantly as a company, so we actually are hiring lots of people, but we’re hiring different people. We’re hiring people who are AI forward.” Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 12/31/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #784: Auld Lang Xiety | Looking at a weird GDP data point. Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks. Gold and Silver – WOW! Closing out the year – a good one too! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - Lots to be excited about and anxious too - Looking at a weird GDP data point - Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks Markets - Gold and Silver - WOW! - Closing out the year - a good one too! - Buyers are still hot to buy any dip - "Diet" pills coming Bitters Making Progress - Chocolate -Dark Cherry -Infusions - https://highdesertbotanicals.com NYE Celebration - Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects: - Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp. - Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs. - Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato. - Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside! - In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month - Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends’ doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck. What a year! - So many themes in 12 months - AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization - Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems. - Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30% - 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names) Top New Year's Resolutions - Exercise More - Eat Healthier - Save More Money/Get Out of Debt - Be Happy/Improve Mental Health - Lose Weight - Spend More Time with Family & Friends - Learn a New Skill/Hobby - Get Organized Active Management (Funds) - Same report annually - A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade. - Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion. - The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007. - BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management ---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning --- Efficient markets, boots on the ground Fat Pill - The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk. - Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month. - The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill. - Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January PowerBall - A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas. - The payout soared after last Monday’s drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday. - The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19 - Odds: one in 292.2 million. Silver - Amazing year! - Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower| - Down 7% on Monday - Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day - Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering.... ----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but..... SoKo Breach - South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month. - That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit - $34 per user NVDA Deal - Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday. - Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that’s been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny. - Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report. - Groq will remain an independent company (?) GDP Consumption - Something is a bit off.... - With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure Q3 GDP Surge Russia/Ukraine - Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace - Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence - Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore? - Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards! - - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits? - While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts) Oil - Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD - Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand) - Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc - What will it take to move up? Best Auto Stock for 2025? - GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009 - Ford up 35% - Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year) - - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now? --- Would she ever say shares are overvalued? More fun stats - A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That’s more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year - Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems like cooling towers or liquid loops. Indirect (off-site) water stems from electricity generation—particularly from thermal and nuclear plants, which require significant cooling resources - ??? Estimates suggest a single standard AI prompt (about 100 words) is linked to around 1.5 liters of water—accounting for the entire chain of consumption. (This is total usage from cooling powr consumption, electricity generation) - Global AI workloads consumed 50–60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025—roughly the annual electricity use of a medium-sized country like Switzerland. - By 2030, AI-related electricity demand could reach 300–500 TWh annually, according to energy analysts—comparable to the entire electricity consumption of countries like France. Over to Iran - President Trump tells reporters that if Iran is building up its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to "knock them down" again --- Wait - I thought we destroyed all of their nuke aspirations??? - - - AND - Iran's currency hit a record low, triggering wave of protests, according to Bloomberg Fed News - Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35% - President Trump still angry at Powell 0threating to sue for incompetence Odd - Tesla Inc. published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting. - The carmaker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. - Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier. - These are estimates published by analysts - Tesla put on its own site - WHY? End of Year Stat - The U.S. national debt is climbing at a rapid pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the growing criticism of massive levels of government spending. - The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors, rose to $38,386,384,190,622.68 as of Dec. 30, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department. - That is an increase of about $5.8 billion daily - ~$18 per person in the US per day increase ($7,300) - or about the monthly price of leasing a small Mercedes - Each person in US owes approx $128,000   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 12/24/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #783: Santa Is That You? | Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison’s personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery’s board had expressed about Paramount’s original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won’t back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok’s US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month’s inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.” Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells’ pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles’ behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump’s executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon’s Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal’s recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 12/17/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #782: Black Hole Economics | SpaceX IPO coming – huge increase in valuation over past 3 months Happy Hanukah – Eight Crazy Nights Now Kevin AND Kevin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Last Chance for CTP Cup 2025 participants - Happy Hanukah - Eight Crazy Nights - Sad News - Rob Reiner - Fed decision is out.... - Overdue eco reports coming this week Markets - Oracle still problematic - SpaceX IPO coming - huge increase in valuation over past 3 months - Another Bankruptcy - cleaning up is not good business - Oh my - Now Kevin AND Kevin - Weight loss game continues - One thing saved for last - a doozie... Tesla - - All time High - Prospect of Robotaxi - Even though sales hitting multi-year lows Wall Street Never Sleeps? - Nasdaq files to extend trading to 23 hours on weekdays - Banks concerned about investor protections, costs, liquidity, volatility risks of nonstop trading - Proponents argue round-the-clock trading benefits global investors - That may create some additional volatility potential SpaceX - SpaceX aims for a potential $1.5 trillion market cap with an Initial Public Offering in 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history - July 2025 tender valuation was $400B - Dec 14th (4 months later) $800B - Starlink is the primary money winner of this deal - Tesla shares climbing even with nothing behind it - seemingly in sympathy for this IPO ---- TESLA does not have ownership of SpaceX - OH - this could be the reason....U.S. deliveries dropped significantly in November—the lowest since early 2022—but this weakness has been overshadowed by the enthusiasm for autonomy. Rob Reiner - A son of legendary Hollywood director Rob Reiner and his wife, producer Michele Singer Reiner, Nick Reiner, is being held on suspicion of murder following their deaths, according to Los Angeles Police Department Chief Jim McDonnell. He’s being held on $4 million bail. - Citing law enforcement sources and family friends, ABC News reported on Monday that Nick Reiner had recently returned to live at his parents' South Chadbourne Avenue home. The move was described as a temporary arrangement intended to help him stabilize. - Not going to discuss the Truth Social post about this tragedy HEADLINE ALERT - "Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs’ as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues" - Copper has gone from 5.77 to 5.30 (July to today) - 6 Tops at this price since 2011 - Not seeing this as per the headline - seems like a Hunt Brothers special from the 1980s - CORNERING THE MARKET ---1980 - Silver went from $11 to $50 then crashed, bankrupting the Hunt Bros - after COMEX changed rules forcing them to cover positions Bankruptcy - After 35 years, the maker of the Roomba robot vacuum filed for bankruptcy protection late Sunday night. Following warnings issued earlier this year that it was fast running out of options, iRobot says it is entering Chapter 11 protection and will be acquired by its contract manufacturer, China-based Picea Robotics. - The company says it will continue to operate “with no anticipated disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support.” - Remember that Amazon - The Amazon buyout of iRobot, maker of Roomba, was announced in 2022 for $1.7 billion but ultimately failed in January 2024 due to significant regulatory pushback, primarily from the EU, over anti-competitive concerns. -- Amazon walked away with a $94 million termination fee Fed Pick - President Donald Trump said Friday that Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of his list as the next Federal Reserve chair, though Kevin Hassett also remains in contention, according to the Wall Street Journal. - Interesting that this comes days after Hassett said that we would not let outside suggestions influence his voting - ---In addition to putting heavier weight on Warsh getting the job, Trump repeated an assertion he has made in the past that the Fed chair ought to consult the president about interest rate decisions. - Also of interest, prediction markets had Hassett at 95% probability - now it moved to 50% - big payday for people in the know. Housing Prices - Average home price is DOWN on year-over-year basis - First time on national level since 2024 - Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher --- Houses are on market longer - - Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%. More Hosing Related - Zillow shares plunged more than 9% on Monday on worries that the online real estate platform could have a big new competitor: Google Search. - Google appears to be running tests on putting real estate sale listings into its search results. Overdue Eco - Black Hole - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday releases its long-awaited combined employment reports for October and November, but a number of key details will be missing after the government shutdown prevented data collection, including October's unemployment rate, resulting in the first-ever gap in that critical data series since inception in 1948. - NICE JOB GANG! - Some of the data will be estimated. - It said it would not publish the headline CPI number or the so-called core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, for October. "BLS cannot provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations," the agency said. Some Updates - Some info coming in are estimates - some delayed - Unemployment at 4.6% - Latest report shows +64,000 added - ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing - both slowed over the last month The Fed - Meanwhile the Fed cuts rates.... - A Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie cut its key interest rate Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. - The FOMC’s “dot plot” indicated just one more reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, amid considerable disagreement from members about where rates should head. - In addition to the rate decision, the Fed also announced it will resume buying Treasury securities. The central bank will start by buying $40 billion in Treasury bills, beginning Friday. - Markets were all over the place on this as it was a little confusing at first - then it seemed that everyone loved (for one day) - Why is the Fed moving up Treasury purchases to "immediately" from a few months from now? - AND - dissension ! A larger group that usual of regional Fed bank presidents signaled they opposed the cut, and six policymakers said the benchmark federal funds rate should end 2025 in a range of 3.75% to 4%, suggesting they opposed the move. - Long bonds have not moved at all on this news. Costco Earnings - Costco beat Wall Street’s fiscal first-quarter sales and revenue expectations. - Sales rose 8.2% and digital sales jumped 20.5% compared with the year-ago quarter. - Costco surpassed Wall Street’s quarterly expectations and posted year-over-year sales growth of 8.2% as the retailer attracted more digital sales and opened new locations. - Earnings per share: $4.50 vs. $4.27 expected - Revenue: $67.31 billion vs. $67.14 billion expected - Costco does not provide year ahead guidance - Shares down from a recent high of $855 Costco Fun Facts - About 4.5 million pies were sold in the three days before Thanksgiving, which is equivalent to roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse. - These were bakery pies (e.g., pumpkin, apple), - Costco had more than $250 million in non-food online orders on Black Friday, a record for Costco’s U.S. e-commerce business. - Approximately 358,000 whole pizzas were served at Costco's U.S. food courts, a 31% jump from last year. (500 pizza's per store) Fat No More - Retatrutide - Eli Lilly said its next-generation obesity drug delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss seen so far in a late-stage trial and reduced knee arthritis pain, clearing the first of several upcoming studies on the weekly injection. - In a 48-week Phase 2 study, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 24% of their body weight. - Recent Phase 3 results showed patients on the highest dose lost an average of 28.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks. - The trials also showed improvements in related health conditions, including knee osteoarthritis pain, blood pressure, and liver fat - This triple action is what makes retatrutide potentially more effective for weight loss than existing medications like Zepbound (tirzepatide), which targets two receptors, or Wegovy (semaglutide), which targets only one. Paypal - PayPal Holdings Inc. applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration’s openness to financial-technology companies entering the banking system. - The payments-focused firm submitted applications to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions to form a Utah-chartered industrial loan company, PayPal said in a statement Monday. - If approved, PayPal Bank would help the firm bolster its small-business lending capabilities, according to the statement, which said the company has provided access to more than $30 billion in loans and capital since 2013. Ford - Management Confused - Instead of planning to make enough electric vehicles to account for 40 percent of global sales by 2030—as it pledged just four years ago—Ford says it will focus on a broader range of hybrids, extended-range electrics, and battery-electric models, which executives now say will account for 50 percent of sales by the end of the decade. - The automaker will make hybrid versions of almost every vehicle in its lineup, the company says. - All in on EVS cost them - Ford expects to record about $19.5 billion in special items, mostly during the fourth quarter. ---- The charges are related to a restructuring of its business priorities and a pullback in its all-electric vehicle investments. Australia - Australia has implemented a groundbreaking ban preventing children under 16 from accessing major social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook, effective December 2025, to protect them from harm, with significant fines for companies failing to enforce it, though messaging apps and gaming platforms are currently exempt. - Reddit is suing - Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Threads, TikTok, X (Twitter), YouTube, Reddit, Kick, and Twitch are all banned for kids under 16. - Thoughts on this? Saved For Last - Of all the eye-popping numbers that Oracle Corp. published last week on the costs of its artificial-intelligence data center buildout, the most striking didn’t appear until the day after its earnings press release and analyst call. - The more comprehensive 10-Q earnings report that appeared on Thursday detailed $248 billion of lease-payment commitments, “substantially all” related to data centers and cloud capacity arrangements, the business-software firm said. These are due to commence between now and its 2028 financial year but they’re not yet included on its balance sheet. - That’s almost $150 billion more than was disclosed in the footnotes of September’s earnings update. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 12/10/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #781: Greenlighting | We are Green-lighting! Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden A Chocolate Craze PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) - Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden - Chocolate Craze Markets - NVDA gets the greenlight - Waiting for the ECO - ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm - Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Inflation - PCE comes in a little lighter than expected - However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago - Inflation still running at around 3% overall - Fed set to greenlight the rate cut Oil and Gas - Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Jobs - Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020. - This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading. Greenlight - No security problems here - Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. - The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors. - It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia’s H20. - This can be gamed ..... - OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ???? China Not With Program - China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC - Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon - China still holds the cards ECO Data Starting to Flow Again - BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026 - Unemployment report released Dec 16th - This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard - - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment Apple Turnover - Not the pastry - In just the past week, Apple’s heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down. - Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well. - All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook Berkshire Too - Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms. - Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October. AI Frames - Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026 - What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably. Mergers - Maybe - Netflix announced Friday it’s reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. - The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share - Others are offering $30 CASH per share - President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear - $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved. Oracle Earnings - Wednesday after the bell - This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing - Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago - Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst Forgot this... - What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion? --- History.... - Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security. - The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off. - Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle. - The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred. - China wins again! So much winning! Private Credit - Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee. The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses. - They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC. - Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks. - Total losses? $208 million Pistachios - Dubai Craze - Milk chocolate shell filled with: - Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note) - Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch - Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH - United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios - Argentina betting on it to continue - adding to their farmland to cover the demand - Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year. IndiGo - In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods. - IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season. - 1000s of flights cancelled - IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support. - As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA) Grok Report - Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow - Photo to video clip - pretty cool - Image generation - FAST! - Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?) - More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+ options - Interesting nd impressive thus far. OMG - Brown Nosing - Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S. - The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour. - Fiat’s announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 12/3/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #780: Code Red | Winner of the CTP Cup for IBIT Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman’s declaration PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Winner of the CTP for IBIT - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 - Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman's panic - Here come the Tariff lawsuits - - Smart Toilets are a thing (And learning the Bristol Scale) Markets - Horses can smell the barn.... Seasonal Trends - PR Teams - full throttle - (This is their Social Media) - Tax planning over the next couple of weeks may see some selling into year end Impressive Results - India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 8.2% in the quarter ended September against a forecast of 7.3% in a Reuters poll and 7.8% expansion in the previous quarter, data released last Friday showed. - The Indian government has cut consumer taxes on hundreds of items and implemented long-delayed labour reforms in the last three months as it tries to keep the domestic economy strong in the face of global uncertainties. - Strongest in 6 quarters - Economists said stockpiling for the festive season as well as expedited exports ahead of the 50% tariff deadline on August 27 might have contributed to the quarterly growth figures. - Manufacturing output rose 9.1% in the quarter ending in September from a year earlier against growth of 7.7% a quarter ago, while construction expanded 7.2% year-on-year from 7.6% a quarter ago. NVDA Spreading Out - Nvidia on Monday announced it has purchased $2 billion of Synopsys common stock as part of a strategic partnership to accelerate computing and artificial intelligence engineering solutions. - As part of the multiyear partnership, Nvidia will help Synopsys accelerate its portfolio of compute-intensive applications, advance agentic AI engineering, expand cloud access and develop joint go-to-market initiatives, according to a release. - Nvidia said it purchased Synopsys’ stock at $414.79 per share (Now at $445) Amazon Ultra Fast Service - The parent company of Instacart fell nearly 4% after Amazon said it’s testing “ultra-fast” delivery of groceries in Seattle and Philadelphia. - These deliveries take about 30 minutes or less, said Amazon. - Doordash and other delivery companies stocks also fell. Microstrategy - Strategy - Stock has been under pressure - Who knows what the company actully does anymore - Leverage Bitcoin play - issuing massive debt and convertibles to but Bitcoin - Stock down 39% this year and 52% 1 -year (Up 400% in the last 5 years) -Bitcoin dropped below $87k this week before staging a recovery bounce. Devil's Metal - Silver has outpaced gold in 2025, with a growth of about 71%, compared to gold’s 54%. - Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion and infrastructure challenges. - While industrial demand for silver is expected to decline slightly in 2025, the metal is increasingly used in electric vehicles, for AI components and in photovoltaics. - Some people are saying that people were having to transport silver by plane rather than on cargo ships to meet delivery demand INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Some Trump Updates: - Reiterates his view that Chair Powell should reduce rates. - Says he's negotiating with Democrats on healthcare. - Plans to give refunds out of collected tariffs. Crying Game - SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son on Monday downplayed the decision to offload the conglomerate’s entire Nvidia stake, saying he “was crying” over parting with the shares. - Speaking at a forum in Tokyo Monday, Son addressed SoftBank’s November disclosure that the firm had sold its holding in the American chip darling for $5.83 billion. - According to Son, SoftBank wouldn’t have made the move if it didn’t need to bankroll its next artificial intelligence investments, including a big bet on OpenAI and data center projects. Are Stocks Overvalued? CAPE RATIO Consumers... Consumer Confidence CODE RED - Chief executive Sam Altman reportedly declared a “code red” on Monday, urging staff to improve its flagship product ChatGPT, an indicator that the startup’s once-unassailable lead is eroding as competitors like Google and Anthropic close in. - In the memo, reported by the Wall Street Journal and The Information, Altman said the company will be delaying initiatives like ads, shopping and health agents, and a personal assistant, Pulse, to focus on improving ChatGPT. This includes core features like greater speed and reliability, better personalization, and the ability to answer more questions, he said. - Herein lies the problem with this entire tech market - what if ChatGPT fades to the sideline with $1.5Trillion promised over the next 5-7 years? - Remember, Google declared a Code Red after the arrival of ChatGPT. AI Takeover - Massachusetts Institute of Technology on Wednesday released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care and professional services. - The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. - The index simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI and corresponding policy. Costco Sues - Costco filed a lawsuit asking for a full refund of tariffs the warehouse club giant has paid since President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs earlier this year. - Costco sued the Trump administration to get a full refund of new tariffs it paid so far this year, and to block those import duties from continuing to be collected from the retail warehouse club giant as a Supreme Court case plays out. - Costco is worried that it would lose the money even if the Tariffs were deemed illegal. Fat Cutting - Eli Lilly said it is lowering the cash prices of single-dose vials of its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound on its direct-to-consumer platform, LillyDirect. - Starting Dec. 1, cash-paying patients with a valid prescription can pay $299 to $449 per month for Zepbound vials on LillyDirect, depending on the dose, down from a previous range of $349 to $499 per month. - The announcement comes just weeks after President Donald Trump inked deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to make their GLP-1 drugs easier for Americans to access and afford. Smart Toilets - This year industry giants Toto Ltd. and Kohler Co. introduced smart toilets capable of analyzing what is in the bowl - Launched in August, the latest model in the Neorest line starts at roughly $3,200. - It uses an LED light and a sensor to read the shape, color, hardness and volume of stool as it drops, and sends data to a smartphone app in less than a minute. - Each toilet can support as many as six users — enough for most households — while some companies have bought multiple units for their employees. Toto aims to sell 7,300 units annually by 2028. - For now the stool-scanning Neorest is available only in Japan. - The app analyzes bowel movements against the Bristol scale, which is commonly used to diagnose constipation, inflammation or diarrhea, and offers simple recommendations such as eating more fiber and drinking more water, or even menu suggestions, like vegetable soup. Bristol Scale Feel Good - Entrepreneur Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, will deposit $250 in the individual investment accounts of 25 million American children in a $6.25 billion philanthropic pledge as part of the Trump administration's Invest America initiative. - $250 each child born after between 2015 and 2025 - The money will go to the accounts of children who live in ZIP codes where the median family's income is $150,000 or less, according to a spokesperson for the Dells. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Here is the list of players: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 11/26/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #779: Rip the Dip | Rough Week – does not phase bulls! Bitcoin – Bottoming? Let’s take a look at Walmart and Target again Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Short Week - Markets closed on Thursday and short Friday (1pm) - Can't have a down week for TDAY! - Too much table talk - Recession News - Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again - Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? Markets - Rough Week - does not phase bulls! - Bitcoin - Bottoming? - NVDA - China Bound? - NASDAQ Weighting Inflation - Still Up There - They are now pressing for a cut in December (How are we handicapping this?) - All of a sudden the parade of Fed speakers - all seem a bit more dovish. Meanwhile - President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries. - oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers. Quantum Stocks GOOD NEWS! - NO Recession risk! - Bessent says inflation due to services economy, not tariffs - Treasury secretary says Republicans should end filibuster in event of another shutdown - Bessent says administration working to lower prices where it can - Banking and insurance, Software development and cloud services, Tourism, Restaurants and hospitality , Professional services (law, accounting, consulting) Rigging it - NEC Director Kevin Hassett emerges as frontrunner for Fed Chair as President Trump nears decision, according to Bloomberg Weird News - Buried in the NVDA earnings report - Remember back in September, the two companies announced a massive partnership that would include a $100 billion investment over time by Nvidia into OpenAI. - Nvidia said in its quarterly financial filing that there’s no guarantee that the company will finalize an agreement with OpenAI. - Soooooo - is this all hot air???? More NVDA - Here we go. Another reversal - President Donald Trump will make a final decision on whether to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips to China. - The decision involves weighing the promotion of economic expansion against protecting national security, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. ------ Read that again - money versus national security - Allowing the sales would mark a significant easing of restrictions imposed in 2022 to prevent Beijing and its military from accessing the most powerful US technologies. Chip in question: H200 - Had some discussions about this - might as well as they will just get it on their own and this way we can control. (On the other hand, they have a long history of outsmarting us) EVEN MORE - NVIDIA issues memo to CNBC: The company said "We are not aware of any claims that NVDA has improperly capitalized operating expenses. Several commentators allege that customers have overstated earnings by extending GPU depreciation schedules beyond economic useful life" | - The tip of the Iceberg - this is what Michael Burry has been pressing..... HPQ Earnings - HP Inc. beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; increases dividend; announces company-wide initiative, includes job cuts - Stock down 6% Amazon - The Spend keeps going... - Amazon.com Inc. says it will spend as much as $50 billion expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government entities. - Amazon Web Services plans to break ground next year on what will ultimately be 1.3 gigawatts of additional capacity across data centers designed for federal agencies, the company said in a blog post on Monday. Google/Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), further reduced its stake in Apple - Google on a ramp since - new Gemini and... - Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, adding to a months long share rally as the search giant has made the case it can rival Nvidia Corp. as a leader in artificial intelligence technology. - Meta is in discussions to use the Google chips — known as tensor processing units, or TPUs — in data centers in 2027, and may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year. - Really smart people at Berkshire? What did they know? NASDAQ 100 - Uninvestable? - Top 10 stocks are over 70% weighting - SP500 top 10 stocks = 38% - This is not a diversified approach any longer - Coming up on next week's TDI Podcast - Howard Silverblatt - S&P Dow Jones - Keeper of the data Something They Don't Want You To Know - “Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Lowest Earnings Growth Since Q1 2023 - With NVIDIA reporting actual results for Q3 on November 19, all the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have now reported earnings for the third quarter. - “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 18.4% for the third quarter. This earnings growth rate is below the average earnings growth rate of 28.8% for these seven companies over the previous four quarters. Novo Nordisk - Pummeled - Shares of Novo Nordisk on Monday fell to a four-year low after the Danish pharmaceutical company said a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet its main goal. - The trial tested whether semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy — helped slow progression for Alzheimer’s disease. -While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in two separate trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression, Novo said in a statement Monday. The goal had been to slow patients’ cognitive decline by at least 20%. - Reminiscent of Pfizer - after Covid shot had noting left... Bitcoin - Live by the sword.... - iShares Bitcoin Trust had $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, according to WSJ - Big month of losses for crypto - not too much mention and support by Whitehouse - Selling started - coincidentally with the pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of the Binance Remember DOGE - DOGE disbanded eight months ahead of scheduled end in July 2026 - Former DOGE employees take new roles in administration - Elon Musk initially led DOGE, promoting its work on social media - bagged out when stock tanked - DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work. Walmart - Walmart raised its sales and earnings outlook last week as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter, driven by double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers across incomes. - The retailer said it expects full-year net sales to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from its previous expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%. - It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63, a slight raise from its prior range of $2.52 to $2.62. - Stock went vertical ---- - Much different story than Target - WMT up 16% YTD - TGT down 37% Beef Prices - Not Going Down - Tyson Foods stock rallying on Monday following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal. - The decision comes as the meat and poultry giant grapples with historically low U.S. cattle inventories, which have severely compressed margins and led to a reported $426 mln adjusted operating loss for its beef segment in FY25.| - Seems that investors like this decisive cost-cutting measure, viewing the capacity reduction as a necessary step toward restoring profitability in a challenging commodity environment. Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package last Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures. - The package includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and representing the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts. - Problem is that the Yen is sliding and intervention is imminent - Inflation issue and they will make it worse with this stimulus Larry Summers? - Epstein Files - IS there any There , There? Talk about a 50 Year Mortgage? - Such a bad idea - and these boneheads think it is smart - 30-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,610.46 Total Payment: $579,767.35 Total Interest Paid: $279,767.35 - 50-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,362.42 Total Payment: $817,449.78 Total Interest Paid: $517,449.78 Thanksgiving Costs 2025 National Average (American Farm Bureau Survey) - 2025: $55.18 for a classic dinner for 10 people (about $5.52 per person) - 2024: $58.08 for the same meal - Change: Down 5% year-over-year This is the third consecutive annual decline since the record high of $64.05 in 2022. Key Drivers Turkey prices dropped sharply: A 16-pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024. Sides are mixed: Dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper (down 14.6% and 9%). Sweet potatoes and veggie trays are much higher (up 37% and 61%). Regional Differences South: $50.01 (most affordable) West: $61.75 (most expensive) Classic Meal for 10 ($55???????) 16-pound turkey (frozen, whole) Stuffing mix (14 ounces) Sweet potatoes (3 pounds) Rolls (12-count package) Peas (1 pound) Cranberries (12 ounces) Carrots and celery (for a veggie tray) Pumpkin pie mix (30 ounces) Pie shells (two, 9-inch) Whipping cream (half pint) Milk (1 gallon) -   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CTP FOR: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 11/19/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #778: Total HorseSh!t | Tariff juggling – just moving them around – no studies, no rationale Big Moves – One of the worst Novembers since 2008 The Big Short – End of a Era? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday - The Big Short - End of a Era? - What is happening to Bitcoin? - THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed Markets - Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale - Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 - Hindenburg Omen - Fed Losing Cred WHY? - If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries.... - President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg - So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we? --- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit More Tariffs - Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028 - Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports - For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat. - Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028. - What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS Fed Update - Markets no longer view December as a sure bet - Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish - Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95% - AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool) More Horseshit! - Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. - Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago - That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. - Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on! - Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time.... StampFlation - The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week. - The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select. BIG - Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. - In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year. - "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter. - Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR - We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much.. - He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th... Softbank - We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings - Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL - New position in INTC - Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months. - Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week - Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades. THC Blues ??? - A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container. == Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year. - 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually) - Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry. - Concern that the blackmarket will grow again - However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations) UK Tax Scrap - British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax. - The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn. - Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea. How Does This Work? - House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico Some Eco ...?? - Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET - What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released Hindenburg Omen - There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades. - According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better. Pied Piper - Losing Followers - OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so - Biggest beneficiary - Oracle - Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip) - Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month. Disney Earnings - Hmmmmm...... - Shares fall 8% as revenue misses - Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube - The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth. - Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A 3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000 Starbucks - Can it get any worse for this company? - Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain’s Red Cup Day sales event. - NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores - The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks. Buffett - Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer. - They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder - Sold homebuilder DR Horton - Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb ---- DPZ chart looks terrible Over to China - Economy not getting any better - Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. - Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September. - Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month. - The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country. Electric Prices - We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running - Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. - Prices are going up in some of the areas that have big data warehouses are climbing faster -Prices, for example, surged by 13% in Virginia, 16% in Illinois and 12% in Ohio. - Did some research - Global data center electricity use is estimated at ~200–250 TWh per year - Global Bitcoin network consumes ~120–150 TWh annually - Remember when the climate activists were all over that? Crypto and Risk - Bitcoin and the other names in the crypto universe are getting smoked - Over the weekend, Bitcoin trading at $96K - YTD trasing about flat --- Is this a precursor to a risk off market? - The S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq indexes are all experiencing their worst start to November since 2008. - Since 1980, November has been the best-performing month for the S&P 500, with an average gain of 2.2%.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING A NEW CTP iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
| 11/12/25 | ![]() DHUnplugged #777: Bifurcation | NEW CTP for IBIT Under/Over – Looks like the OVER Presidential PARDONS and A King’s EVICTION All Excited – Making headway on the Deficit ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - NEW CTP for IBIT - Under/Over - Looks like the OVER - Presidential PARDONS and A King's EVICTION - All Excited - Making headway on the Deficit ! Markets - DJIA hits new ATH - after big moves last week - Buyers stepped in (again) - NASDAQ - lagging as AI trade is questioned - THEREFORE - what is happening is a simple rotation again - ALL IN! Just back from a wedding in NJ - Did some Apple picking, hot cider and donuts! Pardon Me... - President Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of his political allies for their support or involvement in plans to overturn the 2020 presidential election, according to the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney, Ed Martin. - Several others (20+) were pardoned as well including some that plead guilty. Over the Pond - King Charles III on Thursday stripped his disgraced brother Prince Andrew of his remaining titles and evicted him from his royal residence after weeks of pressure to act over his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Buckingham Palace said. - After the king’s rare move, which follows years of shameful scandals, he will be known as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and not as a prince, and he will have to vacate his Royal Lodge mansion near Windsor Castle. Debt - The U.S. government’s gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday, a record number that highlights the accelerating accumulation of debt on America’s balance sheet. - It’s also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic — the U.S. hit $37 trillion in gross national debt in August this year. - “During his first eight months in office, President Trump has reduced the deficit by $350 billion compared to the same period in 2024 by cutting spending and boosting revenue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, adding that the administration would pursue robust economic growth, lower inflation, tariff revenue, lower borrowing costs and cuts to waste, fraud and abuse. - Petersen Foundation: “Along with increasing debt, you get higher interest costs, which are now the fastest growing part of the budget,” Peterson added. “We spent $4 trillion on interest over the last decade, but will spend $14 trillion in the next ten years. Interest costs crowd out important public and private investments in our future, harming the economy for every American.” - Debt Growing by $69,000 per second over the the past year... Stock New - BIG Softbank - Softbank sells entire stake in NVDA - $5.83 Billion - To soften the blow, they said that it as because they are using it to redeploy further into AI - OpenAi to be specific - Also sold part of T-Moblie and using margin loan against ARM to fund the $22.5 BILLION investment in OpenAI - “This should not be seen, in our view, as a cautious or negative stance on Nvidia, but rather in the context of SoftBank needing at least $30.5bn of capital for investments in the Oct-Dec quarter, including $22.5bn for OpenAI and $6.5bn for Ampere,” Rolf Bulk, equity research analyst at New Street Research, told CNBC. - IMPORTANT SO MARKETS DO NOT GET SPOOKED: ?[SoftBank] made a point of saying that it wasn’t any view on NVIDIA. ... At the end of the day, they are using the money to invest in other AI related companies,” he said. Coreweave Earnings - The provider of infrastructure for artificial intelligence companies, reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Monday, but the company delivered disappointing full-year guidance. - The company reported a net loss of $110 million, narrowing from about $360 million in the same quarter last year. - Problem at one of their data centers - basically they are not up and running at potential - Stock dropped 15% (Stock ran up to $185 in June and now at $88 MasterCard and Visa - Visa and Mastercard announced a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants who accused the card networks of charging too much to accept their credit cards, hoping to satisfy a judge who rejected a smaller accord as inadequate. - Monday's settlement would end 20 years of litigation in which businesses accused Visa, Mastercard and banks of conspiring to violate U.S. antitrust laws, including through the card networks' collection of "swipe fees." - The settlement calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which averaged 2.35% in 2024 and typically range from 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1 percentage point for five years. -- Retail Merchants Associations still not happy about this... - Merchants would also get more options to impose surcharges when people pay by card, including an "unfettered" ability to charge up to 3%, according to a court filing. - STILL they charge 20%-35% (The highest variable rate advertised for a specific card is 36% on the First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard Credit Card.) A Head Scratcher - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Thursday that the artificial intelligence startup is on track to generate more than $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate this year, with plans to grow to hundreds of billions in sales by 2030. - The company has inked more than $1.4 trillion of infrastructure deals in recent months to try and build out the data centers it says are needed to meet growing demand. - Question: It is almost impossible for companies with a long track record, stable business and known clientele to project out one year as things change so fast in the economy. How can a recent startup with new technology that is unknown the use in the future project out 5 years? Tesla - The vote is in and Elon got his pay package! - Update: Elon Musk is the richest person in the world as of November 2025, with a net worth that has approached and briefly crossed $500 billion Economy K Shape - U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November as households across the political spectrum worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in history, which has caused disruptions ranging from food benefit payments to grounded flights. - The current level is closing on on the worst in 20 years - Democrats are really in the dumps, while Republicans are upbeat (91 vs 33) - High earners happy - lower earnings very unhappy. - For the economy? Consider that the top 20% of households by income drive 40% of consumer spending Employment - Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. - It was the highest level for any October since 2003 and has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009. - Challenger reports the highest level of layoffs coming from the technology sector amid a time of restructuring due to AI integration. Companies in the sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. - In total, companies have announced 1.1 million cuts this year, a 65% increase from a year ago and the highest level since the Covid pandemic year of 2020. Rate Cuts? - Miran says half-point cut ‘appropriate’ for December, but Fed should at least reduce by a quarter point (What a tool!) - “If you’re making data for what, if you’re making policy for what the data are now, you are backward looking, because it will take 12 to 18 months for that to hit the economy. So you need to make policy now based on where you think the economy is going to be a year to a year and a half from now.” - SOOOOOO - he thinks the economy is slowing over the next 12-18 months? Doesn't that conflict with how great Kevin Hasset Even so.....Can't be all bad... - Levi's will sell its new line of $300 jeans in more stores next year as it looks to boost growth by tapping into strong demand for premium denim, Chief Financial and Growth Officer Harmit Singh told Reuters. - Launched in Asia earlier this year, and in around two dozen stores in Europe and the U.S. since September, the Blue Tab range of higher quality jeans and shirts is part of an ongoing push to broaden the Levi's brand and attract more women. - In Europe, Blue Tab jeans sell for between about 250 and 350 euros ($290-410), compared with between 70 and 130 euros for its Red Tab line. Blue Tab jackets sell for around 700 euros. EV Hangover - Ford Motor is reportedly considering permanently ending production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck amid mounting losses and more challenging market conditions for EVs. - Ford's President, when asked last month by media about Lightning production potentially ending, said the company’s main priority was gas-powered models. - F-150 Lightning sales this year through October are roughly level compared with a year earlier at only 24,577 units. Since going on sale in 2022 in the U.S., Ford has sold less than 100,000 F-150 Lightning models. SAD NEWS - A 208-year-old publication that farmers, gardeners and others keen to predict the weather have relied on for guidance will be publishing for the final time. - Farmers' Almanac said Thursday that its 2026 edition will be its last, citing the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing the book in today's “chaotic media environment.” Access to the online version will cease next month. - The Maine-based publication, not to be confused with the even older Old Farmer’s Almanac in neighboring New Hampshire, was first printed in 1818. For centuries, it's used a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and lunar cycles to generate long-range weather forecasts. Bad News For Stock Insiders? - Nancy Pelosi said she will not seek reelection to Congress. - Pelosi, 85, has served in the House for nearly four decades, presiding over the passage of major legislation and serving as a leading opposition figure against President Donald Trump. Thoughts? - A U.S. appeals court on Tuesday cleared the way for Florida to enforce a law restricting real estate and land purchases by Chinese citizens, rejecting claims it violates federal law and discriminates against Asians. - The law prohibits individuals who are "domiciled" in China and are not U.S. citizens or green card holders from purchasing real estate or land in Florida. It allows non-tourist visa holders and asylum recipients to purchase a single residential property as big as two acres that is at least five miles (8 km) from any military installation. - Republican Governor Ron DeSantis said when he signed the law in 2023 that it would help protect Americans from the influence of the Chinese Communist Party. More China - Apple has confirmed that it removed the popular gay dating apps Blued and Finka from its Chinese iOS store in compliance with an order from the Cyberspace Administration of China. - “Based on an order from the Cyberspace Administration of China, we have removed these two apps from the China storefront only,” the company said, though they clarified that the apps had already been unavailable in other countries. - Grindr, a popular gay dating app from the U.S., was removed from the iOS store in 2022, days after the Cyberspace Administration of China began a crackdown on content it considered illegal and inappropriate. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING A NEW CTP iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter | — | ||||||
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Chart Positions
3 placements across 3 markets.
Chart Positions
3 placements across 3 markets.

