DHUnplugged Podcast

September – here we are and the volatility starts. Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to? Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too. Bombing Iran again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - September - here we are and the volatility starts - Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to? - Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too - Bombing Iran again - and again. Markets - Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged - NVDA earnings - price hikes - Employment Report coming this Friday - Dell earnings - WOWWWW! DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com LAKE AMERICA - Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change. - Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names. - Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight. OIL / IRAN - Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation. - Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36. - Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil. - Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ---- OH WAIT>>>> IRAN - FIGHT IS ON - We are back bombing and they are retaliating - We retaliate, they bomb - Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on" - Oil Up ... DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER - Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed. - Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. - Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market. - Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround. BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO - Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back. - Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack. - The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play. - Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions. GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS - Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes. - Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake. - Trilogy Metals soared after a government deal, then gave back much of the move. - A lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement could have implications for similar federal equity deals. CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS - China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year over year in July. - Profit growth slowed from 15.1% in June but remained strong. - Manufacturing profits rose nearly 19%, while mining profits jumped roughly 35%. - Strong factory profits continue to contrast with weak property and domestic-demand signals. DELL EARNINGS GUIDANCE - Earnings we great - Guidance out of control - Dell sees Q3 mid-point EPS of $6.50 vs $4.46 FactSet Consensus; sees mid-point of revs at $49.00 bln vs $41.36 bln FactSet Consensus - Dell sees FY27 mid-point EPS of $25.50 vs $18.99 FactSet Consensus; sees revs mid-point of $192 bln vs $174.05 bln FactSet Consensus TARGET HALLOWEEN BACKLASH - Target pulled a children's clown costume after complaints that it resembled blackface imagery. - The company apologized and said it was reviewing how the product cleared internal approval. - The controversy adds another brand-management problem after several politically charged merchandise fights. LEGO BOOM - Lego first-half revenue jumped 21% to about $6.5 billion. - Net profit rose 32%, while consumer sales increased 22%. - More than 330 new products helped drive demand across Star Wars, Formula 1, Botanicals and other franchises. - Lego continues gaining share while expanding stores and manufacturing capacity. WAIT - WE'RE BOMBING IRAN AGAIN - U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, the first U.S. attack on Iran in several weeks. - Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, restarting direct military exchanges. - Oil jumped more than 2%; Brent moved back above $90 and WTI above $85. - The Strait remains the key issue: roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through it, so actual disruption to tanker traffic matters more than the headlines. IRAN SANCTIONS - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran could face secondary sanctions and loss of access to the dollar system. - Scott Bessent described the campaign as an "economic D-Day." - Treasury sanctioned dozens of people, companies and vessels but initially avoided major Chinese financial institutions. - The expanded sanctions reach oil, shipping, gold, aviation, technology and digital assets. JOBS REPORT / FED TEST - August payrolls hit Friday after July shocked with a 23,000 job decline. - Expectations are for only modest job growth, making revisions and the unemployment rate especially important. - Fed rate-hike odds jumped after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments; a strong jobs number could push them higher. - JOLTS, ADP and ISM data provide several previews before Friday.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Oil Reserves taking a hit. Finally getting to the recent high profile earnings. Market Top Calls (again). ALL TIME HIGHS – Then some consolidation (then highs again). Situational Awareness Update. SpaceX Bounces… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John S. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Oil Reserves taking a hit - Getting to the recent high profile earnings - Market Top Calls (again) Markets - ALL TIME HIGHS - Then some consolidation - Lets round out earnings - Situational Awareness Update - SpaceX Bounces... Etsy - Layoffs With Better Numbers - Etsy is cutting about 220 jobs, or 12% of its workforce. - Management said the cuts were not primarily about cost savings or AI. ----- CEO Kruti Patel Goyal stated the restructuring aims to simplify the organization, remove management layers, and speed up decision-making to better compete against massive rivals like Amazon, Temu, and TikTok Shop - Q2 revenue was about $668 million and core marketplace sales improved. - Etsy also authorized another $2 billion share buyback. - Comes after selling Depop to eBay for about $1.4 billion. Polysilicon - Tariffs Plus Price Floors - U.S. policy adds a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon and solar products. - Goal is to protect domestic production from low-cost foreign competition. - U.S. share of global polysilicon capacity fell from about 50% in 2005 to under 2% in 2024. - First Solar and T1 Energy jumped on the announcement. ---- The same playbook - rinse and repeat Chipotle - Salmonella Returns - Minnesota officials linked a salmonella outbreak to jalapenos served at Chipotle. - Chipotle removed the affected pepper supply and switched growers. - Shares fell roughly 8%-10% as investors remembered the company's earlier food-safety problems. - This is on top of the lettuce situation with Sweetgreen- look at STOCK CHART FOR SG Michael Burry - Calling a Major Top - Michael Burry says the market may be near a "major top." - Warned of the possibility of a 1987-style market drop. - He is short names including Nvidia, Palantir, Tesla and semiconductor stocks. - Main concern is stretched valuations and crowded trades unwinding quickly. - This may be the 100th top he has called since the GFC ---- NVIDIA TURNS GPUs INTO AN ASSET CLASS - Nvidia signed preliminary agreements with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure. - The Wall Street firms would create dedicated pools of capital to finance Nvidia-based data centers and compute infrastructure at what Nvidia calls attractive rates for customers. - Jensen Huang: “This is really the first time that technology chips have become an investable asset class.” Nvidia says the compute assets now generate revenue and can increasingly be financed like infrastructure. - Nvidia could backstop as much as 25% of individual investments on a case-by-case basis - potentially up to about $125 billion if applied across the full program. STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE BREAKS 300 MILLION - The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 7 - below 300 million for the first time since January 1983. - The SPR started 2026 around 415 million barrels, meaning more than 100 million barrels have already come out this year as releases were used to offset disruptions from the Iran conflict. - The reserve's authorized storage capacity is roughly 714 million barrels, leaving current inventories at about 42% of capacity. - Oil on the rise last week Earnings and such Toyota - Big Buyback, Better Outlook - Toyota raised its annual operating-profit forecast 13%, helped by the weaker yen. - Announced a share buyback worth up to $6.3 billion. - Quarterly operating profit still fell 9%, hurt by China weakness and higher Middle East-related costs. McDonald's - Value Problem - U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.8%, below expectations and well below last year's 2.5% growth. - Management blamed weak execution of value promotions and fewer digital deals. (and probably because everyone is taking weight loss drugs - see above) - Lower-income customer traffic remains a major pressure point. - McDonald's is bringing back more digital offers and loyalty promotions to drive traffic. Eli Lilly - Weight-Loss Machine - Lilly crushed Q2 expectations as Mounjaro and Zepbound drove most of the growth. - Mounjaro sales hit $9.94 billion; Zepbound brought in $4.93 billion. - Raised 2026 revenue guidance to $85-$87 billion. - Verzenio, its major breast-cancer drug, remains one of Lilly's biggest non-obesity products. - Lilly continues widening its lead over Novo Nordisk in the obesity-drug market. Disney - Parks Keep Printing Money - Quarterly adjusted EPS rose 28% to $2.06, beating the $1.86 estimate. - Parks and experiences revenue increased 10% to nearly $10 billion. - Global park attendance grew 4%. - Disney is selling its 50% stake in A+E Networks to Hearst for an estimated $1.2 billion. Oil - OPEC Adds Barrels, Maybe - OPEC+ agreed to raise September production targets by another 188,000 barrels per day. - The increase completes the rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut dating back to 2023. (In other words - planned so not a surprise) - Actual supply remains constrained because several producers are already pumping below quota. - Any normalization around the Strait of Hormuz could suddenly make OPEC+'s additional barrels much more important. Berkshire Hathaway - Greg Abel Starts Spending - Q2 operating earnings rose 16% to about $13 billion. - Berkshire bought $23.5 billion of stocks and sold just $3.7 billion - its first quarter as a net stock buyer in 14 quarters. - Bought back $4.5 billion of Berkshire shares, versus only $235 million in Q1. - Cash dropped from roughly $380 billion to $365 billion as Abel starts putting the massive cash pile to work. - Important shift: Buffett is still chairman, but this is one of the clearest signs yet of how Greg Abel may allocate capital differently as CEO. Situational Awareness - Nearly Blows Up, Investors Want Back In - The fund lost 67% in July after leveraged AI bets collapsed and forced a major stock sale to Citadel. - Despite the blowup, Situational Awareness was still up about 80% for 2026 because of huge earlier gains. - Bloomberg says Silicon Valley investors are already asking to put more money into the fund. - Situational Awareness is currently telling prospective investors it is not accepting new capital. - The fund has also continued making large private investments even after the near-collapse. --- Most recent was a $400B ---- There is some talk that Citadel made out like a bandit on the rescue Mercedes AMG - The Car Literally Brands You - Two Mercedes AMG owners filed a class-action lawsuit claiming the metal AMG logo embedded in the seat becomes dangerously hot in the sun. - One driver says he suffered first- and second-degree burns, with a dermatologist describing the injury as "AMG inscribed." - The lawsuit wants Mercedes to cover damages and remove the metal logos from affected vehicles. - Hard to beat this one: pay AMG money and get the logo branded into your back. Europe's Drought - History Starts Popping Out - Extreme drought and low river levels are exposing things that have been underwater or hidden for decades or centuries. - In Serbia, sunken German World War II warships have reappeared in the Danube. - In Britain, dry ground revealed outlines of medieval buildings; mammoth remains and ancient structures have also surfaced elsewhere. - Serious drought story, but visually one of the strangest side effects of the summer. Golden Toilet - $6 Million Flush - The 18-carat gold toilet was ripped out of Blenheim Palace in a five-minute raid and has never been recovered - but there is a conviction. - Prosecutors used phone data, forensic evidence and planning activity to link the gang to the theft. - One defendant had cased the palace beforehand and photographed entry points; another man had already pleaded guilty and admitted helping move the stolen gold. - Prosecutors believe the 98-kilo toilet was quickly cut up or melted down and sold as gold. - So the conviction was based on evidence of the robbery and disposal - not on recovering the actual toilet. Final Follow Up SpaceX - Space Junk Smashes Into the Moon - A dead SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage crashed into the moon at about 5,400 mph after drifting through space since January 2025. - The roughly 4-ton, school-bus-size object kicked up a lunar dust plume that astronomers detected from Chile. - The impact was accidental - solar activity and gravity gradually pushed the abandoned rocket stage onto a collision course. - NASA and SpaceX are now discussing ways to prevent future lunar crashes as more hardware heads toward the moon. - NEED Space garbage Trucks - something we have discussed on show for years (see next) Space Garbage Trucks - This Is Becoming a Business - Astroscale is building spacecraft designed to inspect, capture and remove dead satellites and other orbital debris. - Its ADRAS-J mission demonstrated close approach and inspection of a large piece of existing space junk - a key step before actually grabbing and removing debris. - ClearSpace is developing similar debris-removal spacecraft, including missions designed to rendezvous with and capture abandoned rocket hardware. - The business model is basically orbital towing: governments and satellite operators pay to remove dangerous junk or service aging spacecraft. - With tens of thousands of tracked objects already in orbit, "space sanitation" could become a real infrastructure business.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

– OOFAH – Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. – Hackathon disguised. – KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios. – Oil moved up on War – now no War again… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Some bad days and some good days - AH is walking - and driving - We have to talk about Free Cash Flow changes NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM) - Location to be determined - SIGN UP HERE Meet-Up Invite Markets - OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. - META too - KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios - Oil moved up on War - now no War again DO WE TALK ABOUT MORE AI HACKING - Latest stories of even more AI breach of containment - Is this really just a plan to gain regulation (to limit competition?) GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE - Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video. - The feature adds another way to verify identity. - It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes. - The tradeoff is greater use of facial data. - Privacy, storage and security questions will follow. SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN - Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell. - The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation. - It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices. - SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites. - The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in. --- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX - Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history. - Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book. - Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth. - The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future. TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION - TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona. - Second-quarter profit surged 77%. - AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production. - It also adds labor, construction and execution risk. - The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race. --- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK - The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. (4.7%) - Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market. - Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. - Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets. - Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook. - 30-year is zooming higher and higher CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF - Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods. - The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies. - The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs. - Canada could respond with tariffs of its own. - The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade. WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE - Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S. - He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs. - The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy. - Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost. - Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff. MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET - Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers. - Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions. - The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms. - High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower. - Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER - UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook. --- Co-Pick for JCD and AH - Cost controls helped drive the improvement. DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING - Delta expects higher airfares to continue. - Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal. - Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs. - Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets. - Capacity growth remains the key variable. --- Say it enough and its true? THE GREAT EGG RECALL - Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella. - The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns. --- Now what will be the political angle? - Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices. HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY -Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue - Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments. - Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products. - South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply. -- They are nuts in Korea EARNINGS AMAZON - Q2 results released Thursday evening. - AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year. - The stock gained about 15% Friday. - The key investor takeaway was that AI-related cloud demand accelerated enough to outweigh concern about higher capital spending. - Amazon rose about 5% Monday to a record and crossed a $3 trillion market value after last week’s results showed the strongest AWS growth in more than four years and management raised its capital-spending outlook. The move reinforced the market’s view that AI infrastructure demand remains robust and helped lift other hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle. Apple - Fiscal Q3 revenue was $109.4 billion and EPS was $2.02. - iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion. S - September-quarter revenue growth guidance of 9%–11% disappointed. - Apple warned that unusually high memory-chip costs could pressure margins - Stock FELL about 7% Friday. Microsoft - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $90.0 billion and adjusted EPS was $4.74. - Azure growth was 43% - Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, - Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance was approximately $90.4 billion. - Shares rallied strongly - - up 15% and best since October 2008 REDDIT - Reddit shares plunged roughly 20% following its second-quarter earnings report due to a warning about choppy search traffic, slowing domestic user growth, and a lack of new AI licensing announcements - Despite beating Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations - Revenue: Reached $805 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year and beating the estimated $730 million. - Earnings: Reported net income of $253 million, or $1.25 per share, easily topping the forecasted 95 cents per share. - Guidance: Projected third-quarter revenue between $860 million and $870 million, which also surpassed consensus expectations. Meta Earnings: Strong Sales, Expensive Problems - Q2 revenue jumped 28% to $60.8 billion, slightly beating estimates, as advertising and user engagement remained strong. - Earnings were only $6.18 per share versus roughly $7.19 expected, hurt by $2.4 billion in legal costs and $1.18 billion in severance charges. - Free cash flow collapsed 91% to just $784 million as Meta poured money into chips, servers, power, data centers and AI hiring. - Meta raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to $130-$145 billion; it began the year expecting only $115-$135 billion. - Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion, while management gave investors limited detail on when its AI and metaverse spending will generate meaningful returns. - The stock fell roughly 9%-10% because strong ad growth was overwhelmed by the earnings miss, shrinking margins, weak cash flow and another increase in AI spending.DHUnplugged Story Build - August 2, 2026 Korea's Market Meltdown - The KOSPI fell about 40% in one month, wiping out roughly $2 trillion in market value. - Leveraged retail investors were hit hardest as margin calls accelerated the selloff. - Anger turned toward President Lee after officials had encouraged broader stock ownership. - Regulators are now restricting leveraged products, but only after the damage was done. The AI Agents Got Out - OpenAI found more cases of autonomous AI agents escaping intended containment. - One agent reportedly operated for days and compromised Hugging Face infrastructure. - Anthropic also disclosed model breaches during cybersecurity testing. - The incidents raise serious questions about monitoring and shutdown controls. Amazon's $600 Million Refund - Amazon received about $600 million in tariff refunds after courts invalidated the duties. - The company had reduced exposure by buying and importing inventory early. - Only customers tied to a traceable tariff charge will receive automatic refunds. - Most of the money will remain with Amazon and support lower prices. Microsoft's $450 Billion Day - Microsoft gained nearly $450 billion in market value in one session. - Shares jumped more than 15%, pushing its valuation near $3.35 trillion. - Azure growth guidance of 45% easily topped expectations. - Microsoft still plans about $175 billion in 2026 capital spending. Meta's Metaverse Money Pit - Reality Labs lost more than $4.6 billion in the quarter. - The division remains tiny compared with Meta's advertising business. - Meta is funding heavy spending on both AI and metaverse products. - Management continues to warn that Reality Labs losses will remain large. Dow Drops 1,100 Points - The Dow fell about 1,100 points, its worst day since April 2025. - The 30-year Treasury yield climbed near 5.24%, a 19-year high. - Investors feared the Fed was falling behind persistent inflation. - Higher yields hit technology stocks and other expensive assets. Tariffs Return Under New Authority - New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners. - The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case. - Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico. - New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far. - 25 States are suing on this .... Warsh Lets the Bond Market Do the Talking - The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials dissented and wanted an increase. - Warsh gave little guidance, saying markets should follow the data rather than Fed speeches. - He suggested rising market rates could tighten conditions without an immediate Fed hike. - The 30-year Treasury yield jumped above 5.20%, its highest level since 2007. - Warsh said he welcomed markets moving independently; investors read the move as doubt about the Fed's inflation commitment. Inflation Cools - But Not Enough - Headline PCE inflation eased to 3.7% in June from 4.1% in May. - Core PCE slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%, still well above the Fed's 2% target. - Consumer spending rose 0.3%, while personal income increased 0.2%. - The softer report reduced immediate pressure, but did not eliminate the possibility of a September hike. Oil's Wild Week - On Monday, July 27, oil plunged nearly 9% after Trump paused U.S. strikes against Iran. - On Tuesday, July 28, Brent fell another 4.8% to $84.09 as traders hoped the pause could lead to peace talks. - On Wednesday, July 29, oil reversed and jumped about 7% as airstrikes escalated and supply fears returned. - Trump's repeated pauses, threats, and renewed attacks produced violent daily reversals in crude. - Brent still finished July up nearly 24% as the Strait of Hormuz remained a major supply risk - Large oil companies benefited from stronger crude, fuel and trading margins during the quarter. The Long-Bond Warning - The 10-year Treasury yield ended July near 4.74%, up about 32 basis points for the month. - The 30-year yield climbed roughly 37 basis points to about 5.27%, a 19-year high. - The move raises financing costs for mortgages, corporations and the federal government even without a Fed hike. AI Earnings Expectations Get Extreme - Analysts expect second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise about 48% from a year earlier. - AI-related companies account for much of the expected growth. - Microsoft and Amazon delivered record market-value gains after strong cloud results. - Apple, Meta Reality Labs and weaker chip stocks showed the market is becoming less forgiving of disappointing AI returns. Free Cash Flow Changes - Year Over Year ------FCF shows how much real cash remains after operating costs and capital spending. Analysts use it to judge earnings quality and a company’s ability to fund buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or growth. - Apple: up about $7.5 billion, or 31%. - Microsoft: down about $6.0 billion, or 23%. - Meta: down about $7.8 billion, or 91%. - Amazon: deteriorated about $25.8 billion, from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion. - Alphabet: down $11.2 billion, swinging from positive $5.3 billion to negative $5.9 billion. - Tesla: down $1.24 billion, swinging from positive $146 million to negative $1.09 billion. - Intel: adjusted free cash flow worsened by $7.37 billion, from negative $1.05 billion to negative $8.42 billion. - Nvidia: up $22.4 billion, or 86%, from $26.1 billion to $48.6 billion.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter