This is how the RECESSION starts in 2026 | Phil Neuhart

This is how the RECESSION starts in 2026 | Phil Neuhart

From Full Signal by Phil Rosen

April 2, 2026 · 29 min

About this episode

Phil Neuhart discusses the potential recession triggers and the current economic landscape with Phil Rosen.

Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension between rising geopolitical uncertainty and a surprisingly resilient stock market, the real recession trigger to watch in the labor market, why mega caps may be less insulated than investors think, the Fed's impossible position, and what an AI unwind would actually look like. This episode is sponsored by Public: https://public.com/openingbell Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribe Follow Phil on X: https://x.com/philrosenn Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philrosen/ Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 0:20 - Uncertainty vs. resilience 1:30 - Tail risks investors are ignoring 2:50 - The bear case 3:25 - Labor market as a recession trigger 5:40 - Stocks insulated from oil? 6:30 - Earnings season and the multiple contraction 10:20 - Complex Fed outlook 12:55 - What would trigger the first rate cut? 13:50 - Kevin Warsh's problem 15:30 - AI trade rotation 18:10 - Bullish small caps 20:20 - AI as scapegoat for layoffs 24:50 - Recession odds 27:35 - Does history still apply to this market…

People in this episode

Host: Phil Rosen

Guest: Phil Neuhart

Topics covered

  • geopolitical uncertainty
  • stock market resilience
  • labor market recession trigger
  • Fed's position
  • AI impact on economy

Keywords

  • recession
  • stock market
  • labor market
  • geopolitical uncertainty
  • AI
  • Fed
  • mega caps
  • rate cut

Sponsors

Public

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: First Citizens Wealth

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