About this episode
The episode discusses the evolution and implications of prediction markets in politics.
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.com The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here . When we first started talking about prediction markets in the early days of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, back in 2016, they were something of a novelty and a joke. My then-colleague Clare Malone once quipped, “Who’s even putting money on these markets … Scottish teenagers?” From then on, we referred to online bettors as Scottish teens. Back then, the prediction markets that got the most attention were Betfair, based in the U.K., and PredictIt, based in New Zealand. Both took off in terms of volume and media attention during Brexit and Trump’s first election. But after 2016, PredictIt got bogged down in regulatory drama, and Betfair was largely inaccessible to Americans. In their place, Kalshi and Polymarket became the main characters in the American prediction market story. Today, prediction markets are no longer much of a novelty or a joke. Recently, an active-duty U.S. Army soldier was charged with using classified information for…
People in this episode
Host: Galen Druke
Topics covered
- prediction markets
- betting
- politics
- regulation
- insider knowledge
Keywords
- prediction markets
- Betfair
- PredictIt
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- insider trading
- political betting
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: FiveThirtyEight Politics, Betfair, PredictIt, Kalshi, Polymarket
Places: U.K., New Zealand, Iran
More episodes of GD POLITICS
- How Do Democrats Solve A Problem Like Graham Platner? · June 10, 2026 · 13 min
- Why Right-Wing Populism Hasn’t Taken Off In Ireland · June 8, 2026 · 1h 11m
- Is Iowa The New Maine For Democrats? · June 3, 2026 · 16 min
- Sexts, Autopsies, and Primary Chaos · June 1, 2026 · 1h 3m
- The Dollar’s Strange, Fragile Power · May 28, 2026 · 17 min
- How Partisan Is The Supreme Court, Really? · May 25, 2026 · 1h 2m
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the GD POLITICS podcast page.