Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026. In this episode: How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all. A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base. How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two. 00:00 Introduction 00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game 07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe 09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game 13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia? 15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise? 17:10 How to Defend the Baltics 24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles 27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition? 29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma 35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk? 40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026 48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare? 49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine. They discuss: - How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are being used in battle - 3rd Generation FPV drones - Quadcopter bombers - Mass-market EW systems - Fiber optics C2 - EW recon units - Use of aerial drones for anti-drone/aircraft warfare - Impact of Chinese export controls - Thermite ’Dracarys’ drones - Mothership drones - Long-range deep strike drones - Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance drones - How Starlink is giving Russia an advantage! - How commercial satellite imagery of Ukrainian lands may be playing into Russia’s hands - Why the US and Ukrainian use-cases for drone warfare are so dramatically different - Introduction of autonomy in unmanned systems

After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform? Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and and the editor of a just released book "The Air War in Ukraine." They discussed why F-16s will not play a transformative role on the battlefield, why Ukraine still needs Swedish Gripens, the opportunities for the use of Harpoons on F-16s to target Black Sea Fleet, opportunities for integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the growing danger presented by Russian surveillance drones penetrating deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory which is driving the urgency for development of anti-UAV UAV solutions, PATRIOT battery performance so far in Ukraine and discussion on the longer-term future of air power and integration challenges of combat jets with unmanned loyal wingman systems. Music: Zaporizhian March

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War’s preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey’s unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives. They discussed China’s role in causing Khrushchev to initiate the Cuban Missile Crisis, a huge Soviet intelligence failure that caused the Korean War and Brezhnev’s attempts to prevent Nixon’s downfall in Watergate. Sergey and Dmitri also discussed their upcoming books, which are both publishing in the next few weeks, on Cold War I history and the history and strategy of Cold War II with China, respectively. They talked about what lessons the first conflict may offer for the second, whether it is possible to revive the detente strategy of the 1970s, and how America can achieve victory. Dmitri Alperovitch’s book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" publishes on April 30th (https://WorldOntheBrink.com). Sergey Radchenko’s book "To Run the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power" publishes on May 30th (https://www.amazon.com/Run-World-Kremlins-Global-Power/dp/1108477356/).

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital communications like Starlink. They discuss the still crucial importance of infantry mass and artillery ammunition in this revolution, the challenge presented by electronic warfare and its logistical needs, whether unmanned systems are truly offering a radically new capability or are cheap replications of existing systems like torpedoes and cruise missiles, whether hypersonic missiles are worth the cost and the high manpower requirements of unmanned platforms and cyber weapons. Please check out Dmitri’s upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Ivan Kanapathy, a former US military attache to Taiwan, about the looming threat of Chinese invasion and why a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They discuss the implications of the recent Taiwan elections on the island’s military readiness and the future of US-Taiwan relations, the challenges Taiwan faces in reforming its defense force and strategy, why an invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most difficult military operations ever conducted in the history of warfare, the evolving Taiwanese national identity and why the Taiwanese have little interest in unification with mainland China. Plus, why the world’s dependence on Taiwan’s semiconductors is unlikely to go away in the foreseeable future. If you are interested in this topic, please preorder Dmitri’s upcoming book that dives in great detail into these and many related issues: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2 Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJFkCK_Ex2U

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Rob Lee (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) how the proliferation of FPV drones and countermeasures to them are changing the nature of warfare in Ukraine. They discuss: - Advantages and disadvantages of these new platforms - The development of new tactics and force structures employing them - The challenge Ukraine is having with developing and procuring munitions for drones - The cat-and-mouse battle in electronic warfare countermeasures used by both sides - Whether FPVs provide an advantage to defense or offense - The implications of drones on counterbattery and naval warfare - How Ukraine has emerged as a testing ground for these new technologies and the vital need for Western militaries to better absorb lessons learned from this conflict - How drones are becoming the cheap ’generic’, albeit lesser capable, alternatives to expensive ’brand-name’ weapon systems such as missiles, torpedoes, ISR platforms, etc. Andrey also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, UkraineDefenseFund.org, is helping train new Ukrainian FPV operators at the total cost of just $500 in 3 weeks.

Dmitri Alperovitch and guest co-host Patrick Gray interview Alicia García-Herrero, a Spanish-born economist based in the indo-Pacific and who specializes on China. They discussed why China has exhausted its growth potential and is now facing structured deceleration, which will be a major global deflationary trend. Other topics covered: why the real-estate bubble will likely not cause a dire crisis, why stimulus spending will not solve China’s fundamental problems, why China has not yet experienced the full impact of its demographics collapse, why their economic productivity is not improving and the impact of their economy on the future of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Preorder link for Dmitri’s upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2