S2025 Ep317: The Rate Update —Mortgage Rates About To Spike? Here's What's Coming

About this episode

Dan Frio discusses the factors influencing rising mortgage rates and the implications for homebuyers and refinancers.

Mortgage rates are under pressure again — and this time the trigger is bigger than just the Fed. In today’s video, I break down why the mortgage market just got dangerous, how rising oil prices, Iran / Strait of Hormuz tensions, inflation fears, the 10-Year Treasury, and mortgage-backed securities are all working together to push rates higher. If you’re buying a home, refinancing, or trying to decide whether to lock or float, this is the kind of market you need to understand before making a move. Today we cover: • Why mortgage rates are moving higher • What the MBS / mortgage bond chart is telling us • How oil prices impact inflation and mortgage rates • Why Iran and the Strait of Hormuz matter to U.S. homebuyers • What the 10-Year Treasury is signaling • Why strong corporate earnings may not automatically help rates • Whether today’s market favors locking or floating • What homeowners and buyers should watch next The big takeaway: mortgage rates do not move just because of the Fed. They move because of the bond market — and right now the bond market is watching oil, inflation, war risk, economic data, and Treasury yields. If you are closing soon, this is not a lazy float market…

People in this episode

Host: Dan Frio

Topics covered

• mortgage rates
• inflation
• oil prices
• bond market
• home buying
• refinancing

Keywords

• mortgage rates
• inflation fears
• 10-Year Treasury
• mortgage-backed securities
• oil prices
• home buying
• refinancing

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: U.S.

Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz

More episodes of Mortgage Rates Today | Housing Market & Fed News – The Rate Update with Dan Frio

• Mortgage Rates About to Explode? Trump Strikes Iran · June 11, 2026 · 11 min
• If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy a home or finally refinance that mortgage, I have some news today—and unfortunately, it’s a reality check. We just got the latest inflation numbers, and consumer prices have surged to 4.2%. That is more t · June 10, 2026 · 18 min
• Why Are Mortgage Rates So High? Watch These Numbers This Week · June 8, 2026 · 21 min
• Mortgage Rates SURGE After Blowout Jobs Report — Bad News for Homebuyers · June 5, 2026 · 19 min
• My Homeownership Dream Just Blew Up… Or Did It? · June 4, 2026 · 36 min
• Homebuyers Losing Hope for Lower Mortgage Rates After Today’s Jobs Report? · June 3, 2026 · 30 min