Why an energy shock isn’t breaking the U.S. economy

About this episode

The episode discusses the impact of rising energy prices on U.S. inflation and the economy, featuring insights from RBC Economics.

U.S. headline inflation just posted its hottest print in nearly three years, driven by surging energy prices and sticky core inflation pressures. At the same time, labour market data is looking solid, and growth hasn’t meaningfully slowed. We have yet to see signs of Stagflation Lite materializing, and don’t expect the oil price shock will tip the economy into a recession. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan explain: Whether hot US inflation is purely an energy story—or if pressures are building beneath the surface. Why the Fed stays put even as the labour market holds up. What it would take from a jobs’ perspective to trigger a recession in the U.S.—and why it’s unlikely.

People in this episode

Guests: Carrie Freestone, Claire Fan

Topics covered

• inflation
• energy prices
• U.S. economy
• labour market
• recession
• Fed policy

Keywords

• inflation
• energy shock
• U.S. economy
• labour market
• recession
• Fed

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: RBC Economics

Places: U.S.

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