The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThe S&P 500 is close to all-time highs, but it’s looking wobbly. After magnificent runs, gold and silver are both washed out and trending lower.Bitcoin is all but dead and buried. Rates are rising the world over so you can forget about government bonds - that particular bull market is over. Oil and gas have turned down now Trump and Iran have their deal. Remind me what uranium is again? What to do? Sell? Buy? Take profits? Run? Hide? Risk on? Rotate? Hedge?Everyone everywhere is telling you to do something. There is an entire financial industry dedicated to persuading you that inactivity is irresponsible.Three years ago I proposed the opposite and launched the Dolce Far Niente portfolio - “the sweetness of doing nothing” portfolio.It was based around a simple notion. Do nothing. The sweet FA portfolio. Most of us have busy lives to live with jobs, businesses and families. Some of us even have hobbies. We do not have the time, inclination or temperament to be constantly monitoring markets and worrying. I don’t know about you but I find the more decisions I make, the more bad decisions I make. The aim of the portfolio was to build a sensible allocation to the major themes of the coming decade, and then largely leave it alone.No fiddling. No panicking because of some thing you read on X that morning. Nothing.Different readers used different vehicles. When uranium went nuts, we reduced to 2.5%. I simplified the equity allocation, so the exact implementation evolved over time. What follows therefore is not an audited fund report, but an approximate check-in.The broad conclusion, however, is clear.If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.Doing very little works surprisingly well.Depending on exactly how you measure it, the portfolio is up around 65-70%.Not bad for something specifically designed to reduce activity and thus stress.If by the way, you are investor starting out, this is the portfolio I recommend, and I recommend it way ahead of racy, smallcap stock tips, such as you sometimes read on here.So let’s take a look at the portfolio, and let’s see if any activity is required.The first lesson is that asset allocation remains far more important than stock selection. This is one of the basic truths that, it seems, one keeps having to re-learn.Doesn’t matter which gold miner you own if gold miners are trending lower. Being on the right track matters more than backing the right horse.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comWar creates uncertainty. Lots of it. And how we all hate uncertainty. Markets don’t like it either.What’s going to happen? How long does it go on for? Where do things go from here?Iran will be an in-and-out job like Maduro. Actually the regime is more entrenched than that. It’s only going to last four weeks. America’s preparing for a 100-day war. Britain is getting dragged into World War Three. It’s Cuba next. Aaaagh. Help.At times like this it pays to zoom out and take stock of the bigger picture.So today I’m going to do that.With a BIG Forecast.I’ve studied the charts, applied some simple technical analysis, all with a striaghtforward question in mind: where is all this going?We are going to look at:* Gold* Silver* Bitcoin* Crude oil* Copper* The S&P 500* The pound* The US dollarAnd I am going to give you my forecast.Before we begin, though, take a moment.Where do you think these markets will be by the end of the year?* Will gold be higher or lower? What about silver?* Will Bitcoin break $150,000 or fall back below $60,000?* Will oil go to $100 a barrel?* What about the stock market?* And the pound?Make a note of your answers.Now let’s see how they compare with mine.Gold$4,400 low / $5,600 high by 31 Dec 2026Gold bull markets don’t last forever, but they do tend to last a decade, if the last 60 years are anything to go by, and we are midway through this one. Chinese accumulation is not over, de-dollarisation is not over, central bank re-allocation is not over. Institutions, governments and private investors are still underweight. About the only group that isn’t underweight is readers of the Flying Frisby.We are currently experiencing a mid-cycle consolidation, much as we experienced in 2006: gold went vertical from $540 to $720 then fell back and traded sideways, with an upwards bias for the next 18 months. Five years later it was $1,920.My forecast: gold range trades. $5,150 is the current price. Gold will flirt with its old highs at $5,600. It will test $4,500 as well. Buy the dips. It’s going higher. Just not quite yet.If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. More here.For the mining companies to work, gold only needs to stay around these levels. The GDXJ-gold ratio - small mining companies v gold - is in an uptrend, though it’s butted up against resistance and the 2020 highs. It can go a lot higher, though maybe it needs a breather.SilverIt’s the one everyone wants to know about.Silver is basically a leveraged bet on gold plus industrial cyclicality. It can underperform brutally and it can overshoot like crazy too.