The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

In the face of increasing chaos in our world, Nate turns inward in this week's Frankly to examine a more personal question: what allows an individual to remain grounded, authentic, and capable of contributing meaningfully in turbulent times? He draws on his own experience to identify five things that help him build personal resilience, taking care to not treat them as any sort of universal formula. Rather, Nate offers a systems-oriented perspective that recognizes that our capacity to engage with a complex world depends partly on the conditions that sustain us as human beings. For Nate, those conditions begin with self-care and the knowledge that burning oneself out in service of an urgent – although perhaps just – cause undermines the work itself. He explores the need for both structured routines and slack that allows the mind and body to process experiences, rather than remain trapped in a constant state of simulation. He also discusses how time in nature and friendship help reconnect him to a deeper sense of belonging and self, and the importance of meaningful work that directs our time and energy toward the possibility of creating a better future than the default. Nate's five priorities form a sort of personal compass that allows him to navigate uncertainty without losing sight of what makes life worth living – he invites listeners to examine their own experiences in order to discover the conditions that help them show up more fully for themselves, their communities, and the future they hope to build. What are five things from your own life that help you feel like your whole self? How might you redesign your daily life to create more space for the relationships, environments, and practices that sustain you? And if you had more of what genuinely grounds you, what meaningful work might you become capable of doing? (Recorded October 21st, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

In this week's Frankly Nate unfurls a metaphorical "ladder" that traces the systems-oriented forces shaping the economic Superorganism. He outlines seven rungs that trickle down to affect the behaviors and events we witness in our daily lives, as well as reinforce humanity's dependence on energy and material growth. These rungs – such as worldview, status symbols, and incentives – help to illustrate that destructive outcomes need not emerge from malicious intent. They can arise from ordinary people responding rationally to the pressures of a system that produces globally irrational results. Nate also confronts a deeper constraint – that the biological drives shaping human behavior cannot simply be redesigned. Our appetite for status, novelty, and relative advantage is deeply rooted, and yet history shows that the cultural scoreboards governing those drives can change. This shifts the focus from reacting to daily events toward reshaping the values and social signals that influence collective behavior. While the most visible problems occupy the surface of the system, Nate argues that the greatest leverage lies in the slower-moving structures and cultural assumptions beneath them. Understanding that distinction may offer a more useful map for deciding at which points to intervene. How do values and status symbols affect the behavior of individuals living under the Superorganism? When you think of the responses to the metacrisis present in your own life, which rung of the ladder are they seeking to address? And what are the implications of the idea that the most slow-changing aspects of our society also hold the most leverage? (Recorded October 13th, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

This week Nate examines artificial intelligence through the metaphor of Icarus, asking what risks arise when a civilization injects trillions of cognitive workers into a civilization that's already in resource overshoot. Emphasizing that our society already largely ignores the depleting fossil energy that powers our lives, Nate traces how AI could amplify our economic growth imperative rather than help us escape it. He also touches on optimization – how solving solely for efficiency erodes the robustness and slack that allow our human systems to adapt to energy and material descent. The latter part of Nate's analysis turns toward risks related to power concentration and the downstream effects of increased societal integration of AI. He considers the long-term implications of trends like shrinking entry-level opportunities, mounting cognitive debt, and prose averaging out across research, media, and even everyday life. He also dives into potential nearer-term risks like the emergence of technofeudalism and decreasing costs of surveillance. Nate ends the episode by leaving the last risk unnamed, arguing that the most important consequence of transformative technology may be the one nobody can foresee. How do AI "cognitive workers" interact with the logic of the economic Superorganism? What happens when a civilization optimized for growth without accounting for resilience introduces a technology such as AI? And can humanity choose a middle path when the systems driving AI are rewarded for extremes? (Recorded September 27th, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The El Niño now building in the tropical Pacific is unlike anything in the historical record, and it's arriving on top of decades of warming. Together, they could push global temperatures to roughly 1.8°C (3.2ºF) above pre-industrial levels next year, offering a preview of what may become the new normal within a decade. As the rate of warming continues to accelerate and public attention swings between alarm and fatigue, how can we clearly understand where the planet is actually headed and what it will take to adapt? In this episode, Nate is joined by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather to break down the numbers and metrics within climate science, and translate what they will actually feel like for humanity. He explains how global temperature is measured, what the new generation of IPCC scenarios reveals about plausible futures, and why there's still uncertainty in just how much warmer we'll get by the year 2100. Zeke also unpacks how declining aerosol pollution has sped up warming and other climate variables that have actively emerging research behind them. While certain amounts of warming are locked in, he emphasizes that there is still a wide difference between every degree of warming, and the actions we take now will determine climate futures for centuries to come. How does the IPCC attempt to incorporate the most unpredictable factor for climate models – human behavior – and what do their current projections estimate? If we reached zero emissions tomorrow, would the planet cool back down, or are we locked into the warming we already have? And in a world growing weary of crisis headlines, how can we hold the reality of climate change without tipping into denial or despair? (Conversation recorded on September 16th, 2026) About Zeke Hausfather: Zeke is a lead author of the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report, and was a contributing author to the Sixth Assessment Report. He also authored the climate trends chapter of the Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment, and has testified as an expert witness before the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. At Berkeley Earth, Zeke helps produce one of the world's primary global surface temperature records. He is also a Climate Science Contributor at Carbon Brief. At Stripe, Zeke leads climate research for Frontier, a $2 billion advance market commitment accelerating permanent carbon removal. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The United States, a global superpower for the last several decades, is now locked into a battle for control over the region with the bulk of the world's remaining fossil fuel reserves. Despite U.S. military strength, Iran is not backing down, equipped with a new era of military technology. What happens if the U.S. strategy backfires against its leadership's intention, and what are the larger implications for the balance of geopolitical power? In this episode, Nate welcomes military historian and political scientist Robert Pape for an in-the-moment breakdown of the Iran war's trajectory. Drawing on more than two decades of modeling U.S. strikes on Iran, Pape lays out his central concept: the "escalation trap," in which tactical military success – such as killing leaders, hitting key assets, or a blockade – actually results in a strategic backfire as the attacked side is motivated by the need to survive. He layers this dynamic with the "Second Precision Revolution," which describes the rise of cheap, mass-produced drones that enable countries like Iran and Ukraine to withstand attacks from far stronger militaries. The two also discuss the tenuous position of the other Gulf States bordering Iran, the effects of this war on the financial power of the U.S., and the risk of an Iranian nuclear test in the next few months. Pape brings this all together to point toward the United States' position at the edge of losing its status as a lone superpower, pushing the world back toward regional power centers. What does the United States risk by continuing its strategy of brute punishment? How is the rest of the world adapting to the rapidly changing geopolitical gameboard? And if the United States global standing is relegated – and modern warfare is redefined by decentralized drone technology – what will it mean for stability and globalization more broadly? (Conversation recorded on September 15th, 2026) About Robert Pape: Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago specializing in international security affairs. His publications include Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism and Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. His newest book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism, is now available. Before teaching at the University of Chicago in 1999, Pape taught international relations at Dartmouth College for five years and air power strategy for the USAF's School of Advanced Airpower Studies for three years. He received his PhD from the University of Chicago in 1988. He is the director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

For years, the climate movement ran on the promise that, if we all rally hard enough, we could have it all: continue with our current system and save the planet. Yet the events of the past few decades have shown that this isn't quite the case, and in fact, climate is just one crisis among many produced by our growth-at-all-costs system. This raises the question: What happens when a culture built on the certainty of progress has to confront its own uncertainty? In this episode, Nate is joined by philosopher and author Sarah Wilson for an exploration of the emotions that come from learning about, processing, and then embodying the full extent of the metacrisis. Sarah shares her own emotional arc through this journey, and makes the case that "hope" (at least the version most of us think of) is no longer helpful, since it defers responsibility to some future savior rather than requiring anything of us now. In its place, she argues for truth to ground us, revealing the only path forward is to be "thoroughly human" – grieving, laughing, dancing, showing up for our neighbors. She and Nate also explore why prepping alone doesn't work, and that we should instead be working toward a radical simplification: an intentional shift toward a slower, more communal way of living. Why does the fear of uncertainty run so much deeper than we admit, and what happens to us once we stop resisting it? What emotions and opportunities do we make room for when we let go of false hopes that someone else will solve our crises? And if collapse is actually a slow unraveling of the system we've built our lives around, what would it look like to meet it with the same sense of duty and connection that has always seen humans through hard times? (Conversation recorded on September 10th, 2026) About Sarah Wilson: Sarah Wilson is a multiple-time New York Times and Amazon bestselling author, social philosopher, international keynote speaker, minimalist, and philanthropist. She edited Cosmopolitan magazine Australia at 29, founded the global I Quit Sugar movement, hosted the most-watched non-sports broadcast TV series in the nation's history – Masterchef Australia – and wrote the bestseller First, We Make the Beast Beautiful, which Mark Manson described as "the best book on living with anxiety that I've ever read." Her book, This One Wild and Precious Life, won the US Gold Nautilus Prize, and she has been ranked in the top 200 most influential authors in the world (two years in a row). Her latest book, I Eat the Stars, is now available globally. Sarah lives nomadically, leading dynamic, global conversations about modern philosophy, creativity, existential risk and climate change via her keynote speaking, Wild podcast, and her Substack and social communities (of 550,000 subscribers). Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The world's leading AI companies tell us that superintelligence has a strong chance of leading to human extinction, while also promising that they will be able to control it, offering unlimited power to the one who does it first. So far they've run completely unchecked, but would that change if we knew that "safe" general superintelligence is actually a mathematical impossibility? In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Roman Yampolskiy, one of the earliest researchers in AI safety, to lay out why "controllable superintelligence" is a misguided goal, destined to lead to an entity smarter than all of humanity – and possibly our own extinction. He walks through the recent multi-agent jailbreak of frontier models as early evidence of AI systems evading oversight and coordinating outside human awareness, and why current "safety" measures (like "boxing") only buy time rather than solve the underlying problem. Instead, Roman advocates for an AI development plan that focuses on narrow, task-specific AI tools, capable of solving specific complex problems, but not completely replacing humans. Why do predictability and control matter so much when evaluating whether a technology is safe to deploy? Is the AI safety conversation a fundamentally new challenge for civilization, or an extreme version of the age-old problem of controlling powerful actors? Finally, what would it actually take to reach a global agreement to ban the development of superintelligence, and are we already out of time? (Conversation recorded on September 1st, 2026) About Roman Yampolskiy: Roman Yampolskiy, a tenured AI expert at the University of Louisville, boasts 100+ publications in AI safety, cybersecurity, and digital forensics. As the founding director of the Cyber Security Lab, his expertise spans AI Safety, Behavioral Biometrics, Cybersecurity, and more, with broad impact in academic and media circles. Holding a PhD from the University at Buffalo, he has contributed to global research institutions, and has also been honored with distinctions like Distinguished Teaching Professor. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

In this episode, Nate welcomes author and philosopher, Charles Eisenstein, for a long-requested conversation on the mythologies underneath civilization. For over two decades, Charles has argued that the crises defining modern life all trace back to the story of separation, the largely unspoken belief that each of us is an isolated self, competing against other selves and against a nature made of indifferent, exploitable resources. Charles traces how this story co-evolved with technology, language, and scale, and how quantitative thinking both extends and distorts our understanding of complex problems. He and Nate also discuss why Charles has come to believe that ecological and energy constraints will not force humanity onto a wiser path, rather that the choice has to be made consciously, person by person. (Conversation recorded on August 12th, 2026) About Charles Eisenstein: Charles Eisenstein is an American author, public speaker, and teacher whose work focuses on civilization, consciousness, money, and human cultural evolution. He graduated from Yale University in 1989 with a degree in Mathematics and Philosophy, and spent the following decade as a Chinese–English translator before turning to writing and speaking full-time. He is the author of several books, including The Ascent of Humanity (2007), Sacred Economics (2011), The More Beautiful World Our Hearts Know Is Possible (2013), and Climate: A New Story (2018). His most recent book, The Coronation, examined the pandemic as a mirror of civilization's relationship to control, fear, and uncertainty. His essays have circulated widely online, and he speaks and gives interviews frequently on themes spanning economics, ecology, and spirituality. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Modern companies, markets, and institutions routinely behave in ways that would be diagnosed as pathological in a person: emotional detachment, strategic deception, grandiosity, and the treatment of people, animals, and ecosystems as means to an end. Yet, most of the individuals who make up these organizations don't naturally hold these traits and behaviors themselves. So, why does exploitation keep winning at scale, even when most people are decent, cooperative, and want the same basic things? In this episode, Nate is joined by Greg Elliott, a systems theorist and author of the Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis (PSH), to unpack why our institutions themselves have become so psychopathic, and how that affects the behavior of the average human. Drawing on evolutionary game theory, anthropology, and the neuroscience of psychopathy, Greg argues that cooperation is evolutionarily stable in small tribal systems, but that modern systems where anonymity and abstraction make exploitative, instrumental strategies more profitable. He walks through how this dynamic produces what he calls "entrapment games," in which pro-social people become behaviorally locked into relationships, jobs, and systems where leaving costs more than staying. All of this builds toward the core of Greg's theory: winning, instrumental strategies get crystallized into the operating logic of institutions themselves and reproduced by anyone who plays the game, whether or not they are personally psychopathic. While Greg doesn't see any easy answers, he does offer a set of possible leverage points: shortening feedback loops, increasing transparency and accountability, and rebuilding smaller, reciprocal communities. If domination isn't an aberration but a predictable output of the game board we've built, what does that mean for how we try to fix it? Is it possible for an entire civilization to behave psychopathically even when the vast majority of the individual people inside it are empathetic and pro-social? And if the ultimate goal is to steer toward a more pro-social system, is there a way to 'win the game' and re-write the rules without also resorting to psychopathic strategies and behaviors? (Conversation recorded on August 13th, 2026) About Greg Elliott: Greg is a Siemens solutions Consultant specializing in data science and AI, as well as the Co-Founder of Orbyfy. His research and writing of his book, Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis: From Natural Selection to Symbolic Selection, Scale, Abstraction, and Institutional Collapse, led him to found The Institute for Symbolic Selection, an interdisciplinary research program investigating how human-created symbolic systems shape behavior, institutions, and the long-term evolution of civilization. New to game theory? Here's a short primer: Game theory is the study of how people make decisions when the outcome depends on what everyone else decides too, often with the potential for mutual gain or mutual harm. Its most famous illustration is the Prisoner's Dilemma: two people, each individually better off betraying the other, who both end up worse off when they do. For a deeper understanding, check out these links: - Game Theory video explainer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ecJ_fDpWTg - Game Theory article explainer: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GameTheory.html - Prisoner's Dilemma video explainer: https://ed.ted.com/lessons/how-to-outsmart-the-prisoner-s-dilemma-lucas-husted Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Current geopolitical events continue to expose just how complex and fragile our global economic system is. As such, The Great Simplification team is re-releasing this episode with Ed Conway, which covers the deceptively critical materials that continue to underpin everything from the phone in your hand to the house that you live in. In contrast to 'The Great Simplification', some might call the events of the last few hundred years a 'Great Complexification' in terms of relationships, governance, supply chains, and many other human activities. This conversation with economics journalist Ed Conway focuses on the six essential resources that underpin our modern economies – sand, salt, iron, copper, oil, and lithium - and dives into the (often unseen) environmental and human costs of extracting them, as well as the surprisingly fragile global supply chains they fuel. In order to understand what possibilities – and dangers – may await us in the future, we need to understand the realities and constraints of the present, as well as the failure points of the past. What does it take to mine, refine, and transform the materials that are foundational to the world around us – which many of us now take for granted? How can we ensure the stability of global supply chains, and could we predict potential disruptions and chokepoints before they arise? If we understood the intricate web of complexity, energy, and resources that go into everything we consume, would it change our expectations for how much we need in order to live a good and fulfilling life? (Conversation originally released June 12th, 2024 | Recorded on May 7th, 2024) About Ed Conway: Ed Conway is the economics and data editor at Sky News, covering major UK and international economics, business and political stories. He has broken a series of exclusive reports on the banking and financial crisis. He is also economics columnist for The Times, and has been one of the longest-running economics editors in UK journalism, having started covering the sector in 2003. Prior to joining Sky, he was economics editor of The Daily Telegraph and The Sunday Telegraph, where he was also a weekly op-ed columnist, and economics correspondent at the Daily Mail. Ed is the author of the book on Bretton Woods, The Summit: The Biggest Battle Of The Second World War – Fought Behind Closed Doors and an economics guidebook, 50 Economics Ideas You Really Need to Know. His 2024 book Material World, was nominated as one of the Financial Times Book of the Year. Ed is a governor of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, and has lectured on the international monetary system at the London School of Economics, the US Treasury and many other forums. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Most of us were taught to treat emotions like distress, numbness, and burnout as private failings to manage and move past, rather than normal responses to living within a world full of crises. The unintended result is a distrust in our own bodies and mind, further leading to more confusion about what is 'normal.' One framework offers a potential path to living in harmony with all of the mind's distinct parts, breaking the defensive and counterproductive loops we tend to get stuck in. What sort of systemic ripples might become possible if we stop trying to smother uncomfortable parts of ourselves, and begin embracing them as critical pieces of our own mental ecologies? In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Richard C. Schwartz, the therapist who developed Internal Family Systems (IFS), and Steffi Bednarek, a climate psychologist applying that same model to organizations, governments, and culture at large. Dick walks through the origins of IFS, which describes the mind as naturally made up of "parts" – protectors and exiles – with their own histories, fears, and roles, which are all held by an underlying "Self." Steffi extends the model outward to show how institutions and even entire countries can be read as systems of exiles and protectors, and shares how she uses IFS with governments, financial institutions, and wealth holders to defuse shame and effectively guide toward pro-social behavioral change. Together, they explore why healing our relationship to our own most despised parts may be inseparable from healing our relationship to the rest of the living world. How can looking inward to our own thought processes and patterns help us better understand and relate to others, especially those whose behavior we find hardest to accept? As we continue through challenging times, how can we balance critical physical and policy work with the internal work of healing our relationship to the mental parts we shy away from? And would our decisions and actions change if more and more humans began to lead from curiosity and compassion, instead of fear, and could that be enough to shift the larger system? (Conversation recorded on August 5th, 2026) About Richard C. Schwartz: Richard C. Schwartz, PhD, is the creator of Internal Family Systems, a highly effective, therapeutic model with a growing evidence base, that de-pathologizes the multi-part personality. Richard is also the Founder of the IFS Institute that primarily offers training for professionals. He is currently a Teaching Associate in Psychiatry, at Cambridge Health Alliance, a Harvard Medical School teaching affiliate. Richard has authored or co-authored more than ten books on Internal Family Systems and related topics, including No Bad Parts and Internal Family Systems Therapy. He lives near Chicago with his wife Jeanne, Vice President of the IFS Institute, close to his three daughters and six grandchildren. About Steffi Bednarek: Steffi Bednarek is a gestalt psychotherapist, trauma therapist, and climate psychologist. Her work explores the interface between climate change and mental health. With twenty-five years of experience in depth psychology, complexity thinking, climate psychology, and grief tending, Bednarek has worked for national governments and global institutions to prepare leaders and organizations for the psychological dimension of climate change in decision-making processes. Her work has been featured in the Huffington Post, BBC, David Milliband's "Reasons to be cheerful" podcast and numerous international publications. She is the co-founder of "Explorations into Climate Psychology" journal and an associate member of the American Psychological Association's climate change group. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

For decades, modern civilization has treated efficiency as an unquestioned good: the leaner, faster, and more optimized anything is – from supply chains to your morning routine – the better. But emerging systems science argues that this obsession with performance is actually making humanity more brittle. What if the over-optimization baked into our economies, our agriculture, our institutions, and even our own bodies is at the root of our shared predicament, and how can nature's intelligence show us a different way? In this episode, Nate is joined by biologist and biophysicist Olivier Hamant to explore why living systems prioritize robustness over performance, and what that means for a civilization built almost entirely in the opposite direction. Olivier distinguishes performance (efficacy plus efficiency) from robustness (the capacity to remain stable and viable despite fluctuation), and he points out that nature rarely selects for the most efficient organism; it selects for the most adaptable one. Together, Nate and Olivier also trace how cheap, abundant energy allowed human societies to substitute the "safety net" of resource abundance for the safety net that living systems actually rely on: diversity, redundancy, and cooperation. As the twenty-first century moves from an era of stable averages into an era of volatility and standard deviation, Olivier argues that the path forward likely isn't degrowth or continued growth, but a third way: economies and institutions designed to be robust and adaptable to risk, rather than avoid it. What wisdom have we forgotten for the sake of maximizing material output and efficiency? How has our search for optimization affected our quality of life, and what do we risk by continuing down this same path? Most importantly, could balancing our focus on performance and robustness be the key to reframing our relationship with the entire Earth, bringing more stability, rest, and meaning to our lives? (Conversation recorded on July 28th, 2026) About Olivier Hamant: Olivier Hamant is a French biologist and biophysicist whose work combines plant science and civilizational thought. He serves as Director of Research at the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment, teaches at the École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, and directs the Institut Michel Serres – an interdisciplinary institute focused on ecological transition. Hamant's work is centralized around the idea that modern civilization has confused "performance" with "fitness" by prizing efficiency/optimization/specialization/maximum output. This is in direct contrast to most living systems, which rarely optimize for these characteristics – instead, living systems survive because they are robust, or able to maintain their identity despite unpredictable disturbances. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

For three decades, most of Wall Street has treated energy and commodities as a rounding error, or as a small slice of the portfolio rather than the physical foundation everything else runs on. But in mid-2026, with the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, tankers burning in the Red and Black Seas, and nearly half of Russia's refining capacity knocked offline, that complacency is being tested in real time. The noise around increasing crude oil prices is loud, but this week's guest argues that the signal beneath it – the decline of refined products like diesel and jet fuel – is already sounding the alarm bells of a world in crisis. In this episode, Nate is joined by Jeff Currie for a wide-boundary look at what happens when the buffers that have suppressed energy price signals for fifty years finally run dry. Using his decades of experience as a former commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs and as a current senior advisor at The Carlyle Group, Jeff walks through why the "crack spread" between crude and refined products just hit its highest level in three decades. He also describes why draining strategic reserves is, in actuality, simply a bet that scarcity can be avoided rather than solved – in Currie's eyes, the West's refusal to admit scarcity since the 70s has left it structurally unprepared, particularly compared to China's security-driven build-out of nuclear, solar, and battery capacity. He also lays out the "Grand Bargain" underlying the postwar dollar system, wherein the U.S. protects global sea lanes in exchange for global trade running through New York. Jeff explains why a failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could unravel this arrangement, bringing forward consequences that would land hardest on middle-class Americans' access to credit and consumption. Is the world entering a new commodity supercycle driven by scarcity and deglobalization, or is the market going to keep shrugging off these shocks? What might it mean for ordinary people if the credit and dollar system that has funded American consumption for eighty years starts to break down? And if, as Jeff argues, we are only in "the foothills of the Himalayas," how much higher does this climb go before societies are forced to reckon with the physical limits behind the price signals? (Conversation recorded on July 23rd, 2026) About Jeff Currie: Jeff Currie is the Chief Strategy Officer at Altis Partners. Previously, Jeff served as Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and currently serves as a Senior Advisor to the firm. Jeff's analysis focuses on the energy and commodity markets and the supply chain central to an energy transition. Jeff is the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped to build their commodities business. During his nearly three decades at the firm, he became one of the leading commodity market strategists on Wall Street, known for advising clients through the commodity "super cycle" of the 2000s, the shale supply shock of the 2010s, and most recently the twin shocks of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners