The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh

Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare" and Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. The discussion explores how investors can evaluate resilience to economic vulnerabilities, the future of economic statecraft amid heightened geopolitical competition, and chokepoints that investors should be watching in the future.

Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war's implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.

Daleep Singh welcomes Jake Sullivan, the Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at the Harvard Kennedy School and former U.S. National Security Advisor, for a conversation about the forces reshaping global power and what they mean for markets and investment strategy. In this episode, Daleep and Jake discuss: Whether the world is moving toward regional spheres of influence; How technology is becoming the new battleground for great power competition; The interplay between national security, American statecraft, and the global economy; And how U.S. policy choices could impact economic strength and capital flows.

Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, joins us for a special edition of The Outthinking Investor. Dalio sat down with PGIM's George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Solutions, for a conversation about anticipating the onset of big market cycles and constructing balanced portfolios for new regimes. They discuss the impact of idiosyncratic risks and geopolitical shifts; the evolution of public and private credit markets; AI's transformative influence on the global economy; the five major forces that create big cycles; and the interplay between sovereign debt, the U.S. dollar, gold, and central banks. To understand big cycles, investors must look beyond the headlines and through a historical lens, Dalio explains. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in more than a generation. The global race for technological superiority—particularly around AI and critical semiconductors—is pushing both private capital and government support into ramping up domestic production. Meanwhile, shifting trade policies and geopolitical risk have ignited a realignment in global supply chains impacting a wide array of industries, from furniture to automobiles. But moving factories and building out domestic manufacturing capacity will likely face some speedbumps amid mismatches in labor, materials and costs. New innovations like factory automation bring their own set of implementation challenges. Understanding how the manufacturing outlook is evolving will be crucial as investors sort out potential winning and losing regions and industries. As factories prepare for the future, institutional investors are well positioned to provide the long-term capital that manufacturers seek to modernize operations, create more resilient supply chains, and grow. This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a deep dive into trade imbalances and tariffs; how manufacturers are dealing with macro uncertainty; manufacturing's role in supporting labor markets and the broader economy; potential obstacles that could slow reshoring; and portfolio strategies for capturing opportunities amid a manufacturing renaissance. Our guests are: Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers Julius Krein, editor of policy journal American Affairs and head of policy at the New American Industrial Alliance Josh Shipley, executive managing director and head of Europe at PGIM, overseeing corporate finance offices in the region Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Sir Isaac Newton was a legendary physicist and mathematician. But even the man known for developing the theory of gravity failed to time the market. It is said that after cashing in his shares of Britain's South Sea Company, Newton bought back into the stock right before it crashed. Avoiding the most common mistakes that harm portfolio returns is essential to success in today's markets, where volatility is testing even the most seasoned investors. While there's no single recipe for success, accomplished long-term investors tend to remain disciplined, shut out the noise from a constant whirlwind of headlines, and avoid emotionally charged decisions. This episode of The Outthinking Investor brings lessons from Wall Street and the evolution of financial markets to help investors look beyond uncertainty and identify long-term opportunities. The discussion covers economic resilience and its portfolio implications; growth in ETFs; how alternatives can be well-suited for long-term capital; tax-loss harvesting through direct indexing; steering portfolios through unexpected crises; and more. Our guests are: Barry Ritholtz, Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors that Destroy Wealth—And How to Avoid Them" Scott Bok, former chairman and CEO of investment banking firm Greenhill & Company and author of "Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing" Jim Devaney, PGIM's Head of US Distribution for the retail market Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today's economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a "complicated logistical dance," as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines' former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological innovation, consolidation, regulatory changes, and an increasingly competitive transportation sector—providing universal lessons for businesses and investors. Amid a turbulent outlook, this episode explores how airlines are addressing a host of business challenges, from the threat of aircraft tariffs to volatile fuel costs and customer demand. Topics include business strategies that drive revenues and boost profits, the future of business and leisure travel, navigating antiquated air traffic control systems, the outlook for low-cost carriers, and reflections on United Airlines' turnaround. Our guests are: Oscar Munoz, former United Airlines Chairman and CEO Jack Fitzsimmons, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's US Leveraged Finance Credit Research team Sean Goodier, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's European Investment Grade Credit Research team Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Exploring the continued evolution of the ETF landscape, fueled by rapid growth in active ETFs and an expanding universe of investment choices. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, were born out of a need for greater market liquidity following the 1987 stock market crash known as Black Monday. US regulators determined that institutions needed the ability to trade stocks more efficiently and cost-effectively during trading days. In 1993, the first ETF in the US emerged: SPY. With one trade, investors could buy or sell a basket of stocks that tracked companies in the S&P 500. ETFs have since revolutionized investing. A combination of liquidity, diversification, tax efficiency and ease of access has helped ETFs attract trillions of dollars in capital. A 2019 regulatory update in the US, which made it easier to launch new ETFs, paved the way for further expansion, fueled by active strategies that are driving the next phase of growth. Offering access to actively managed strategies across stocks, bonds and alternatives, active ETFs surpassed $1 trillion in global assets under management for the first time in 2024. Our guests are Matt Collins, CFA, Head of ETFs at PGIM Investments; Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox"; and Dave Nadig, independent financial futurist and former CEO of ETF.com. Learn more about PGIM ETFs at PGIM.com/investments/exchange-traded-funds-etfs. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The world's superpowers are engaging in a different type of arms race beyond the battlefield. With technology advancing at a speedy pace, a global competition for all the ingredients necessary to support artificial intelligence—from data centers and semiconductors to the AI models themselves—is heating up. Not only do these ingredients form the building blocks of today's economy, but building a secure and reliable flow of data is also considered a key national security objective. The UK designated data centers as critical national infrastructure in 2024, underlining how governments are now prioritizing energy supply, cybersecurity, and efforts to guard the digital world from adversaries. This race for technological supremacy, coupled with growing private-sector demand related to AI and cloud computing, is propelling new investment opportunities. This episode of The Outthinking Investor covers the opportunities, challenges, and security considerations at play amid rapid innovation in AI and a global battle for technological supremacy. Topics include the intersection of AI, chips and national security; governments' pursuit of secure and reliable supply chains; and real estate opportunities created by rapid growth in hyperscale data centers. Our guests are Chris Miller, a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University and author of the book "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology"; William Reinsch, senior adviser with the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Morgan Laughlin, Global Head of Data Center Investments at PGIM Real Estate. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China's Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape's evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security has grown, increasingly becoming the focus of today's geopolitical fractures amid global competition over trade, technology and defense. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores the ways in which nations are balancing economic and security priorities, and how investors can leverage geopolitical analysis to make informed portfolio decisions in a changing world. Our guests are Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense and author of "A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times"; Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, former Dean of the Stanford School of Business and co-author of "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World"; and Magdalena Polan, PGIM Fixed Income's Head of Emerging Markets Macroeconomic Research. Topics include the three main forces affecting the global economy, how national defense is influencing economic policy, the geopolitical factors impacting trade flows and emerging markets, and whether the peace dividend is evaporating. To learn more about the macroeconomic and investment implications of geopolitical risks, explore PGIM's 2024 Global Risk Report, Resilient Investing Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty, at PGIM.com. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com.

The "year of democracy" holds the potential to bring profound change to global politics, economic policy, and the investment environment. By the end of 2024, more than five dozen countries, accounting for nearly half of the world's population, will elect new leaders. Elections in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany and European Union, have already yielded both expected and surprising results. The US presidential election in November, as well as key congressional races, also could create significant policy changes—both expected and unexpected—during the next administration, no matter who wins the White House. For investors, the challenge lies in identifying the impact of elections on financial markets. How are 2024's elections going to change the investment outlook? This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a closer look at elections around the world, the issues most important to voters, the challenges that political leaders face, and election season's potential short- and long-term implications for investors. Our guests are Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, professor of political science and international studies at Iona University and author of "American Democracy in Crisis"; Morris Fiorina, Wendt Family Professor at Stanford University and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; and Taggart Davis, Vice President of Government Affairs at PGIM.

In the middle of the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt spearheaded the creation of Social Security, forever changing the US retirement system and how Americans think about long-term savings. Only a few pensions existed at the time, and Social Security was the first government-backed program to provide for the basic welfare of all seniors. The retirement landscape in the US—and around the world—has no doubt undergone massive change since the days of FDR. DC plans have significantly improved the retirement outlook, and an estimated 54.3% of American families now participate in some form of retirement plan such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a 2022 survey by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, seniors still rely on Social Security payments, yet the Congressional Budget Office has forecast that Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors' Insurance Trust Fund will be depleted in 2033. Building retirement security for generations to come will require not only a solution to the Social Security funding crisis, but continued support for the broader retirement savings system. How can policymakers address Social Security's challenges without weakening private retirement savings? In this episode, The Outthinking Investor speaks to three experts about retirement readiness, how governments and employers alike help workers save for retirement, and policy prescriptions for the challenges that lie ahead. Our guests are Dennis Simmons, Executive Director of the Committee on Investment of Employee Benefits Assets (CIEBA); Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Deputy Commissioner of the Social Security Administration; and Mike Miller, Head of PGIM DC Solutions. To cultivate rich conversations around complex investment topics, The Outthinking Investor features speakers with diverse points of view. Participating on the podcast does not imply endorsement of other speaker's opinions, nor does PGIM necessarily endorse the opinions of its external guests. To hear more from PGIM, tune into our new podcast, Speaking of Alternatives, hosted by Eric Adler, President and CEO of PGIM Private Alternatives. Speaking of Alternatives is available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Millions of college students across the US graduate each spring and enter the workforce. When today's retirees entered the workforce in the early 1980s, pension plans and Social Security benefits were two of the main sources of retirement income. Just a couple decades later, defined benefit (DB) plans were overtaken by defined contribution (DC) plans such as 401(k)s, and an aging population was slowly depleting the Social Security Trust Fund. This was a massive shift in a relatively short period of time, and it forever changed one of the most important and challenging aspects of personal finance. Workers are facing another pivotal moment in retirement saving, especially as higher interest rates change the investment landscape. What's increasingly clear is that employer-based plans will play a crucial role in helping people financially prepare for retirement. This episode of The Outthinking Investor brings together fresh perspectives on the future of DC and DB plans in a higher-rate environment, expanding investment options in retirement plans, retirement challenges arising from an aging workforce and growing debt, and more. Our guests are Barb Marder, CEO of the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI); Brooke Masters, US financial editor of the Financial Times; and Josh Cohen, Head of Client Solutions for PGIM DC Solutions. For more retirement insights, listen to The Accidental Plan Sponsor, a podcast series from PGIM DC Solutions.