Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

From Throughline by NPR

May 21, 2026 · 52 min

About this episode

The episode explores the history and evolution of prediction markets and their implications for the future.

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today. Guests: Koleman Strumpf , economics professor at Wake Forest University Paul Rhode , economic historian at the University of Michigan. Robin Hanson , Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market Robert Forsythe , Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline . See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy

People in this episode

Guests: Koleman Strumpf, Paul Rhode, Robin Hanson, Robert Forsythe

Topics covered

Keywords

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Wake Forest University, University of Michigan, George Mason University, Wayne State University, Iowa Political Stock Market

Places: Iran

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