America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show

Industrial real estate demand is rebounding in 2026 after the slowest first half in eight years. Michael Bull, CCIM gets the latest from Marc Selvitelli, President and CEO of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA, the organization known for decades as NAIOP). Only 75 million square feet of industrial space delivered in the first half of 2026, the lowest in eight years. Yet 595 million square feet are now under construction, up 5% year over year, with vacancy essentially flat at 6.9%. Marc explains why the sector is normalizing toward historical norms instead of repeating the post-pandemic rocket ship, and why consumer spending and e-commerce still support the trend. One caveat sits under the numbers: the forecast assumes the conflict with Iran winds down in the second half of the year. The conversation also covers the CREDA sentiment survey (slow, steady, and quietly positive as capital returns), the return to office at 3.4 days a week, why power availability is now the single biggest constraint on new development, and the explosion in data centers, from 2% of members three years ago to 12% today. Marc and Michael dig into industrial outdoor storage (under 2% vacancy nationwide), medical office, office-to-residential conversions, senior housing technology, and what AI really does and does not change for brokerage. In this episode: 00:00 Intro: NAIOP Is Now CREDA00:56 Why NAIOP Rebranded to the CRE Development Association02:29 Industrial Demand Forecast: Slowest First Half in 8 Years04:22 The Iran Conflict Assumption in the Forecast05:10 595M SF Under Construction as Development Turns Up06:19 Industrial Investment and Capital Coming Back07:21 CREDA Sentiment Survey: Slow and Steady, Trending Positive08:09 Multifamily Uncertainty and Office Finding Its Footing09:44 Return to Office: 3.4 Days a Week, AI Firms at Five10:34 Construction, Labor, and Power: The Biggest Constraint12:12 Data Centers: From 2% of Members to 12%14:39 Industrial Outdoor Storage: Under 2% Vacancy Nationwide15:42 End-of-Year Opportunities: IOS, Medical Office, Conversions17:23 A 185,000 SF Tower at 30%: The Office Condo Play18:45 Senior Housing Demand and the Technology Gap21:07 AI, Brokerage, and Why Relationships Still Win25:24 Final Takeaway Connect with Marc Selvitelli, CAE:https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-selvitelli-cae-7b6a991CREDA Website: https://www.credaglobal.org Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #IndustrialRealEstate #NAIOP #CREDA #DataCenters #IndustrialOutdoorStorage #OfficeMarket #CREForecast #RealEstateInvesting #MedicalOffice #MichaelBull

Six years into the expansion, the commercial real estate cycle still looks early. Michael Bull, CCIM covers 2026 rates, supply, and office with BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino, CFA. Ryan Severino, CFA, Chief Economist and Head of Research for the U.S. at BGO, explains why a cycle that is six years old still behaves like an early to mid cycle expansion. Debt sits at moderate levels, the labor market has room to run, and leverage has stayed disciplined. He sees runway left in the economy and in commercial real estate. The conversation covers where inflation and interest rates go from here, why the 10-year Treasury has trouble moving far off 4% on fundamentals alone, and how trade policy and the conflict in Iran are adding roughly 30 to 60 basis points to the long end of the curve. Severino also makes the case that today's rates only feel high because most people working in this industry have spent their entire careers in a market where the 10-year stayed below 5% for a quarter century. On the property side: the construction pipeline is the most benign on record relative to existing inventory, which means owners no longer need an outsized jump in demand to compress vacancy and restart rent growth. Severino explains why he is more constructive on office than most of the industry, drawing a direct comparison to how wrong the popular narrative on retail was for 15 years. Michael Bull adds a live example, a 17-story tower coming to market at $64 per square foot, below the cost of building out the space. The episode closes on what Severino calls a recovery out of order. In a normal cycle, capital markets recover first and space market fundamentals lag. This time fundamentals are recovering while elevated long-term rates hold the capital markets back. His view on the next 12 to 24 months: higher transaction volume, more attractive pricing, and a real estate return profile that compares well against a richly valued stock market. In this episode:00:00 Where Are We in the CRE Cycle? What Inning Are We In?01:08 Six Years In and Still Early Cycle: The Rain Delay Economy03:17 Pandemic, Inflation, Trade War, Real War: A Fits and Starts Cycle04:39 Inflation Resurgent: A Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock06:37 The 10-Year Treasury: Why It Cannot Move Far Off 4%07:58 A Quarter Century Below 5%: Today's Rates Are About Average09:26 Michael's 17% Loan and Making Money at Higher Rates10:28 Oil Prices and Iran: Why the U.S. Economy Shrugs Now12:46 AI and Data Centers: Galactic Capital and Political Backlash15:02 Record Low Construction: Why Supply No Longer Drives the Cycle17:57 Office: The Contrarian Case and the Retail Playbook20:07 A 17-Story Tower at $64 per Foot20:42 Recovery Out of Order: Fundamentals First, Capital Markets Lagging24:47 Relative Value: Real Estate Against a Richly Priced Stock Market25:57 Final Takeaway: You Do Not Pay Today's Rate Forever Connect with Ryan Severino:https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-severino-cfa-4409022/BGO Website: https://www.bgo.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRe

US office vacancy sits at 13.8% while rents rise and inventory actually shrinks. CoStar's Phil Mobley breaks down the two-tier office market at mid-2026. Phil Mobley, National Director of Office Analytics at CoStar Group, joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why the office headlines and the office market have stopped matching. National vacancy peaked at 14.1% a year ago and now sits near 13.8%, with four consecutive quarters of positive absorption totaling roughly 20 million square feet. For perspective, that full year of demand would have been one decent quarter in 2018. The supply side is where this cycle breaks from history. New construction starts are running about 5 million square feet per quarter, a generational low, and for the past two quarters CoStar's data shows outright supply contraction: more office space is being demolished or converted than delivered, which has never happened before. Mobley also corrects the most common misconception about the office recovery. It is not simply Class A winning and Class B losing. Trophy assets, the top 5% of inventory, are performing strongly, and solid B and B-minus buildings serving price-sensitive tenants held up better than most people assume. The real occupancy damage landed on A-minus and B-plus product caught in the middle: not distinctive enough to compete with trophy space, too expensive to compete on price. Also covered: why AI has been an unambiguous demand tailwind so far and the venture-capital risk hiding inside it, why return-to-office gains raise foot traffic without raising space needs, how New York and Dallas preview where the rest of the country is heading, why lease sizes have run 15% below pre-pandemic levels for nearly three years, and the capital markets shift as institutions climb back from 10% to 15% of office deal volume to around 20%, buying buildings to keep them as office. Plus the point every landlord should sit with: the total vacancy number is not the relevant number. Competitive vacancy is, and a landlord without capital to fund tenant improvements does not really have leasable space. In this episode:00:00 Is Office the Buy of the Decade?01:19 The US Office Market: Smaller, but Recovering02:22 Vacancy at 13.8% and Four Quarters of Positive Absorption04:30 New Supply: Generationally Low and Now Contracting06:02 Trophy vs. A-Minus: Where Occupancy Actually Collapsed10:34 AI and Office Demand: A Tailwind With an Asterisk14:13 Return to Office: Foot Traffic vs. Space Demand16:40 Why New York Led, and How the Country Became Dallas21:12 How Much Vacant Space Is Actually Leasable?23:02 Tenant Improvement Capital and the Rise of Spec Suites25:29 Lease Sizes Down 15% From Pre-Pandemic27:01 Office Investment Sales: Institutions Are Buying Again30:33 User Buyers, Two World Trade, and Occupier-Driven Construction32:48 Forecast: Vacancy, Rents, and the Next 6 to 12 Months34:36 Capital Is King: Corporations Building Their Own Space Connect with Phil Mobley:https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-mobley/CoStar Group Website: https://www.costar.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at