Columbia Energy Exchange

Yesterday, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding starting the clock on a 60-day truce. The agreement intends to halt attacks, begin lifting the US naval blockade, and restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But deep uncertainty remains over how energy will actually flow through the waterway—and over the ultimate fate of Iran's nuclear program. Add to this, an increasingly tense relationship between the US and Israel, which has said it does not consider itself bound by the MOU. And here in the US, political pressure could quickly shift Washington's calculations if the reopening of the Strait yields minimal strategic concessions on Iran's ballistic missiles, nuclear enrichment, and regional proxy networks. So what happens next? How will global energy markets and regional security adjust if this temporary truce collapses? Who ultimately holds the leverage in this next phase of the crisis? To address those and other questions about the ceasefire and the intersection of national and energy security, two people who recently sat at the very center of US foreign policy — Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer — joined Jason Bordoff for a special episode of Columbia Energy Exchange. Jake served as National Security Advisor during the Biden Administration, where he was the chief architect of the 2022 National Security Strategy, coordinated the global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and designed the "small yard, high fence" framework for US-China technology competition. Last year he joined the Harvard Kennedy School as the Kissinger professor of the practice of statecraft and world order. Jon served alongside him as Deputy National Security Advisor, bringing decades of experience in high-stakes diplomacy, crisis management, and international law to the highest levels of government. Jon held a number of roles in the Obama administration, including chief of staff to Secretary of State John Kerry. And he's a former distinguished visiting fellow at CGEP. They are also the hosts of "The Long Game," an essential podcast for anyone trying to make sense of foreign policy and national security in our world today. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The clean energy transition had real momentum at the end of 2024. It was buoyed by federal support, billions of dollars of investment in new technologies, and broad acknowledgment of the costs of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. But major roadblocks have emerged over the past 18 months. US support for some forms of clean energy was revoked. And rising energy costs, due in part to an urgent call for data center build-out, have made affordability a priority for many stakeholders. The challenge is truly daunting. Despite significant clean energy investments, some 80 percent of the world's energy is still derived from fossil fuels. Tariffs and supply disruptions have made clean energy infrastructure harder to build. So what does all of this mean for the speed and scale of the energy transition? How are businesses navigating so much instability when billions of dollars and decades-long infrastructure commitments are at stake? And what does this all say about whether the global energy system can ever be clean, accessible, and affordable? Today on the show, Bill Loveless speaks with Jessica Uhl about the challenges of and opportunities for making energy abundant, accessible, and clean. Jessica has held senior leadership roles in upstream oil and gas, renewables, and power technology, including serving as CFO of Shell and later as president of GE Vernova. Jessica is now a senior advisor with the Three Cairns Group, an investment and philanthropic firm focused on the climate crisis. She also serves on a number of boards, including the executive and advisory boards at the Center on Global Energy Policy. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

Despite all the advancements we have achieved globally in recent decades, as many as 750 million people still lack access to electricity. Tackling energy poverty requires far more than linking communities to an electric grid. Closing the massive disparity in opportunity for people around the world will require building energy abundance, not just access. Energy is prosperity, and one way to measure it is by the Modern Energy Minimum. Developed by the Energy for Growth Hub, this benchmark posits that a truly modern life requires at least 1,000 kilowatt-hours per person, per year—10 to 20 times the amount typically used to define electricity access. Here at the Center on Global Energy Policy we're partnering with the Rockefeller Foundation to launch a High-Level Panel on Universal Energy Abundance. The panel is dedicated to providing decision-makers with the insights needed to drive industrialization, job creation, and broad-based prosperity across emerging economies. So how can we develop and invest in energy infrastructure globally in a way that supports prosperity? What role should governments play? Do the right tools to improve access exist? And how do we navigate the tension between energy growth and climate policy? Today on the show, Jason speaks with Katie Auth about energy's role in driving lasting economic change and why the modern energy minimum model could produce a meaningfully better standard of living in developing economies. Katie is the deputy executive director at the Energy for Growth Hub, which works to end poverty through sustainable development and climate resilience. She's also a non-resident fellow on US-Africa relations at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Economic Advisory Council for the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation. Previously, she spent seven years at the U.S. Agency for International Development, including as senior development finance advisor and acting deputy coordinator of Power Africa. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The Iran crisis is in its 80th day. Right now, roughly 1,500 vessels laden with oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and oil products sit trapped in the Persian Gulf by a dual US-Iranian blockade. One thing is certain: prolonging this standoff for another 80 days risks triggering profound global economic consequences. Global oil inventories are depleting fast and are projected to hit critical levels by the end of June. For the Trump administration—caught between accepting Iranian power over the Strait of Hormuz or risking a major military escalation—the path of least resistance may be to keep maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian oil sales to China. The stakes escalated further this month when Washington sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical—China's second-largest independent refiner—prompting Beijing to retaliate with unprecedented blocking rules against US sanctions. How will this high-stakes standoff play out in the coming weeks? And how will the worsening US-China rivalry reshape the Middle East conflict? Today, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Cory Combs, Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research at Trivium China. Cory leads Trivium's cross-cutting research on climate, energy, and industrial policy, advising both governments and multinational corporations. He joins us to break down the volatile triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing, and Tehran, and what it means for global energy security and the Strait of Hormuz. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

In moments of geopolitical crisis, energy is never just a backdrop. It's often at the center of the story. Today, as conflict involving Iran sends shockwaves through global oil markets and raises fears of supply disruptions, the stakes for policymakers in Washington couldn't be higher. Prices are rising, risks are multiplying. And as we've seen in recent weeks, there are no easy solutions when energy and national security collide. So what does effective decision-making look like inside the White House at times like these? Today on the show, to help answer that question, Bill Loveless speaks with Bob McNally and Jason Bordoff. Both of them served as energy advisors during past US administrations. They joined Bill to reflect on what they learned about navigating energy crises from inside the White House. Bob McNally is the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, an independent energy consulting and market advisory firm. From 2001 to 2003 he served on the White House National Economic Council as special assistant to President George W. Bush. And in 2003, he was the senior director for international energy on the National Security Council. His 2017 book, Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom Bust Oil Prices, examines the history of oil price swings. Jason Bordoff is Columbia Energy Exchange co-host and the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, where he is a professor of professional practice. He is also on the faculty of the Columbia Climate School where he is co-founding dean emeritus. He previously served as special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director for energy and climate change on the staff of the National Security Council. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

In this special episode Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy, sits down with Robin Pomeroy, host of the World Economic Forum podcast, Radio Davos, to talk about the global and likely lasting impacts of the current energy shock. This episode is a crosspost originally published by Radio Davos. During the first weeks of the war in Iran, most analysis focused on the immediate energy shock it triggered. To explore the longer-term implications of the conflict, Jason and Meghan O'Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School, recently co-authored a piece for Foreign Affairs titled, "The Iran Shock, And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky". Jason joined Robin Pomeroy to discuss the article and how the largest oil supply disruption the world has ever seen is impacting near-term energy security while fundamentally reshaping the future of the industry. (Unfortunately, Meghan O'Sullivan was unable to join the recording due to illness.) Our thanks to Robin and the World Economic Forum for collaborating with us to share this conversation.

It's been a head-spinning day in the Iran war. Earlier today, following a temporary truce between Lebanon and Israel, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be "completely open" to commercial shipping during this ceasefire. Initial reactions from President Donald Trump were optimistic, but that gave way to some confusion about what "open" actually means in practice. The president later clarified that the existing U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels would remain in place. Despite the confusion, markets responded quickly. Brent crude dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time in weeks, though prices are still meaningfully elevated relative to pre-war levels. Even with the reprieve, much uncertainty looms as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline of next Tuesday, April 21, approaches So, what does this moment tell us about the future of energy security? How durable is the current ceasefire? And what energy system will this crisis leave behind? Today on the show, host Jason Bordoff talks with Amos Hochstein about the recent developments in the Middle East. They discuss the long-term implications of Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, the war's geopolitical and energy market impacts, and where Amos thinks this conflict is headed in the near and longer term. Amos served as deputy assistant and senior advisor for energy and investment to President Biden, and as special presidential coordinator for global infrastructure and energy security. He is a managing partner at TWG Global and a distinguished fellow at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc

Energy abundance means different things in today's global context than it did even a decade ago. It is about expanding electricity access while meeting rising energy demand. It is about navigating geopolitical fragmentation, limited government support, shifting development priorities, and leveraging new technologies to deliver reliable power at scale. But the challenge is not just technological. It is institutional and financial. Many low- and middle-income countries face high capital costs, limited access to financing, and policy frameworks that struggle to keep pace with growing demand. Solving this challenge is a priority for both the Center on Global Energy Policy and the Rockefeller Foundation, which together have launched a new high-level panel to advance universal energy abundance. This initiative positions reliable, affordable energy as a cornerstone of economic growth, industrialization, and opportunity in emerging and developing economies. So what does it take to move from energy scarcity and toward energy abundance? Can international institutions, governments, and investors come together to mobilize the scale of investment required? And how can emerging economies balance the urgency of expanding energy access with the need for affordability, reliability, and sustainability? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Rajiv Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation, about the high-level panel on universal energy abundance and its goals. Rajiv leads The Rockefeller Foundation's mission to promote the well-being of humanity by ending energy poverty for more than a billion people, ensuring universal access to food, and strengthening health systems. During the Obama administration, he led the US Agency for International Development as its administrator. He also served on the National Security Council, where he elevated the role of development as part of a bipartisan foreign policy. Earlier in his career, Rajiv developed programs to address climate change and global food security at the US Department of Agriculture and held leadership roles at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

On the eve of President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy landscape faces a moment of unprecedented risk. With dated Brent crude already surging past $140 a barrel, the threat of tit-for-tat infrastructure strikes looms over the region. In this episode, Daniel Sternoff speaks with Ali Ansari about what's happening in Iran, how decisions are getting made, and how the regional energy landscape is being permanently reshaped. The conversation delves into the fractured state of Iranian decision-making following the death of Khamenei and the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as both a military and a corporate hegemon. Ali explains how the IRGC's "mosaic defense" strategy has devolved operational command to local levels, creating a political system that struggles to coordinate even basic utilities like gas and water for its citizens. Ali Ansari is a professor of Iranian history and the founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. He is also a senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute and the author of multiple books on the politics of modern Iran. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

During President Trump's second term, the administration has taken unprecedented action in the US private sector. The federal government's investments in critical mineral mining and chip manufacturing are two examples. The Trump administration has also embraced tariffs, framing them as tools for economic security and a domestic industrial revival. This shift toward state intervention into private markets, done in the name of national security and economic security, has some bipartisan support. It also has major implications for energy security and the clean energy transition. So how can this new form of American state capitalism be conceptualized? Is the Trump administration's use of these tools different from prior US government programs to support critical industries, like the Biden-era investments under the CHIPS Act? And what are the best strategies for aligning industrial policy with goals around energy security, supply chain resilience, and innovation? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Daleep Singh about how the US deploys economic statecraft and the need for a framework to guide its use. Daleep Singh is vice chair and chief global economist at asset management firm PGIM and a thought leader on global policy and macroeconomic trends. He first joined PGIM in 2022, before serving the Biden administration as deputy national security advisor for international economics and deputy director of the National Economic Council. Earlier in his career, he held roles at the New York Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The month-long Iran conflict has rapidly expanded, drawing in actors across the Middle East and raising concerns about broader regional escalation. As a result, we're seeing impacts on energy markets around the world, including across the Indo-Pacific. Roughly 80% of the oil and gas flowing through the Gulf is destined for Asia, and disruptions are already being felt in major importing economies like Japan and South Korea, which remain heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supplies. But the consequences go beyond energy. The crisis is also adding a new layer of complexity to the U.S.-China relationship—reshaping how Beijing thinks about risk, security, and its role in an increasingly unstable global system. So how is China interpreting these developments? What do they mean for the Indo-Pacific—both in the near term and over a longer horizon? And how might China's approach to energy security, supply chains, and statecraft position it in a more volatile world? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Kurt Campbell about what the current instability in the Gulf could mean for the Indo-Pacific. They also discuss an essay Kurt co-authored with Rush Doshi in Foreign Affairs, arguing for reorienting US diplomacy with China. Kurt is the chairman of The Asia Group, which he co-founded in 2013. During the Biden Administration, he was deputy secretary of the United States Department of State. Before assuming his role at the State Department, Kurt served as the inaugural Indo-Pacific coordinator at the National Security Council and deputy assistant to the President at the White House. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

As the conflict in ​the Middle East enters its 20th day, events on the ground have shifted into a critical new phase marked by direct strikes on core​ energy infrastructure. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for three weeks, effectively bottling up nearly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply, recent escalations have turned the crisis from energy flow disruptions to potentially long-term physical damage. Following Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field in Iran, retaliatory attacks hit Qatar's Ras Laffan—the world's largest LNG plant—and key energy assets across the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Crude oil and natural gas prices have surged, signaling a shrinking toolkit for policymakers struggling to contain price volatility. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff ​t​alks with Anne-Sophie Corbeau to analyze the impact of these infrastructure attacks on global LNG supplies and energy security. They discuss the extent of the damage to Qatari and Iranian production facilities and the intensifying pressure on global markets. They also discuss the possibilities, and reverberations, to a scenario where this leads Europe to a return to Russian gas. Anne-Sophie is a global research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and a leading authority on the intersection of geopolitics and natural gas. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

As the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its third week, the complexities of the global energy landscape are deepening by the hour. Shut-ins of Middle Eastern upstream oil production are now approaching 10 million barrels per day, 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas remains shuttered, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to normal maritime traffic. And while a historic 400-million-barrel release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped blunt oil prices from rising further over a hundred dollars per barrel, flow rate limitations mean such stockpiles may only meet one fifth of the ongoing daily disruptions. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Richard Nephew to give an update on the latest events in Iran. They provide an analysis of the ongoing military strikes, including the recent US targeting of Kharg Island and Iran's retaliation against the UAE's Fujairah port. Richard is a senior research scholar at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and the author of The Art of Sanctions. Over the past two decades, he has held a range of senior roles in the US government, including deputy special envoy for Iran, principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the Department of State, and director for Iran at the National Security Council. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.