Inside Prediction Markets

This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly $2 million in profits on Kalshi. We unpack his shift from top-down betting to building his own NBA model, why execution matters as much as pricing and how he’s automated 90–95% of his trading system. We also go through his NBA takes from this season and his thoughts on the NFL so far.

This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun Watson isn’t that bad, Ben Johnson’s not getting enough credit, the Rams are not a top 5 team and JJ McCarthy & Drake Maye markets.

Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time.Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 delivered. Huge volume across the board, tight spreads, and deep liquidity on marquee matchups like Michigan–Oklahoma and Texas–Ohio State.On the NFL side, we open with the Chiefs–Broncos Monday night line and from there it's a full Week 1 recap: Myles Garrett landing on IR, Lions–Bills predictions for Thursday, the Giants' win over the Cowboys, the Jets sitting tied for first in their division, and a rough opening week for a couple of last year's MVP-caliber quarterbacks.

Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds, joins Chris and Henry in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Matt traces the full origin story: from a Stanford dorm room startup called OddsJam to the realization that the real value wasn't the consumer product but the data infrastructure powering it. He covers how Optic Odds became the cornerstone of the prediction market tech stack, and his most expensive lesson — not pivoting to prediction markets sooner.Also: World Cup volume is hitting all-time highs across every prediction market platform and every market maker is quietly rooting for ties and upsets. Chris and Henry break down what the numbers actually mean, why the Knicks cost market makers a phone book in the NBA Finals, and whether a Morgan Stanley report claiming Kalshi did 10% of US sports volume is believable.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – World Cup Volume Is Breaking Every Record1:12 – The Knicks Cost Market Makers a Phone Book2:50 – Did Kalshi Really Do 10% of US Sports Volume?4:07 – Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds6:00 – Data Infrastructure Becoming the Product16:00 – How PMs Changed Optic Odds20:00 – Could Optic Odds Trade Its Own Data?26:31 – Matt's Road to Success30:32 – Optic Odds' Most Expensive Lesson#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs a piece on regular people beating Wall Street on prediction markets.Then it's just Chris and Henry going deep on the terms that get thrown around constantly in prediction markets but rarely get properly defined. Adverse selection, top down, alpha, live betting, market making — each one broken down clearly with real examples, common misconceptions corrected, and listener questions answered along the way. If you've ever nodded along to a conversation in this space without fully understanding what's being said, this is the episode for you.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Kyle Kuzma: Unlikely PM Hero1:48 – Supreme Court Here We Come4:39 – Regular Guys Are Beating Wall Street7:06 – Defining Adverse Selection10:30 – Defining Top Down16:00 – Defining Alpha22:51 – Defining Live Betting30:00 – Listener Questions34:15 – Defining Market Making#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissioner is putting more regulation on the table.Then Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. He's one of the most respected minds in sports betting Twitter and brings a rare perspective — someone who has sat on both sides of the market. The conversation covers how he thinks about information sharing, what it was like switching from bookmaker to bettor and how sharps like him are actually approaching prediction markets right now.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro2:30 – Trump Calls the World a Casino3:00 – A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC5:05 – Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice)6:00 – From New Zealand Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp Bettor14:00 – Getting Picked Off on Injury News20:00 – How Sharps Are Approaching Prediction Markets28:00 – The Viral Half Million Contract Order38:00 – How Much of His PNL Is on PMs48:27 – The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction market platform, and a look at Chris's Substack deep dive into his journey as a professional gambler.Then Harry Crane joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Harry is a statistics professor at Rutgers, a member of the CFTC Innovation Committee, and one of the sharper minds at the intersection of academic probability theory and real-world prediction markets. The conversation gets into his path from poker to sports betting to prediction market research, what it's like being a bettor with a seat at the regulatory table, and a genuinely fascinating deep dive into Kelly Criterion — when to use it, when it breaks down, the case for half Kelly vs. full Kelly, and what a $3 million drawdown actually teaches you about your own edge.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformChapters:0:00 – Ohio's Bill to Kill Sports Betting1:12 – Perps Coming to Kalshi?3:12 – Chris's Substack on his Journey4:51 – Introducing Harry Crane: CFTC Committee Member6:45 – Harry's Scoop on Election Markets and 53814:00 – Having a Seat at the CFTC Table19:00 – Are Sharp Bettors Losing Faith in Prediction Markets?26:00 – The Full Kelly vs. Half Kelly Debate35:00 – What a $3M Drawdown Teaches You43:00 – Card Counting, Kelly, and the Conditional Fill ProblemThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting