More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim. (08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in… (16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores? (21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk. Guests: Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us. Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one. Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers. And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an EnvelopePresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.Contributors: Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’ Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy AssociatesCredits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right.In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too.Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey.How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukCONTRIBUTORS:Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPBCREDITS Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death.Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes.But the World Health organisation is also concerned about vaping. Last year they said 100 million people around the world are now using e-cigarettes, including millions of children, and warned that they were fuelling a new wave of nicotine addiction.But how do the health risks of these two means of getting nicotine into your bloodstream compare?According to a recent headline in the Daily Mail, they’re basically the same. Here’s the headline:“Vaping is linked to lung and mouth cancer in major study, as experts warn: 'It is NOT safer than smoking’”But is vaping really just as bad for you as smoking?CONTRIBUTOR:Professor Lion Shahab, Co-Director of the UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research GroupCREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it’s been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an astonishing $15 billion dollars today, and it’s a figure that’s stuck. But should we believe it? Duncan Weldon talks to ancient historian Professor Mary Beard from the University of Cambridge to learn more about the big business of chariot racing, and how we should think about money and wealth in the economies of the past. Presenter: Duncan Weldon Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to drill down into the numbers.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light.YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island. So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first place? And are there any alternatives?Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard