More or Less

Terence Tao is widely celebrated as the world’s greatest living mathematician.He was doing university-level maths at the age of 9, won Gold at the International Mathematical Olympiad at 13 - still the youngest person to have done that - and got his PHD at age 20.At 31 he won the Fields Medal - somewhat equivalent to a Nobel Prize for pure mathematics. He has now embarked on what some might consider the greatest challenge of his life - he’s written a book for a general audience, called Six Maths Essentials.This provided the opportunity for Tim to interview Professor Tao. They talked about maths, and the relevance of his kind of abstract maths on everyday life. And they also talked about AI. OpenAI recently released full or partial solutions to 372 unsolved mathematical problems, which has raised existential questions about Tao’s profession. Professor Tao says the disruption in his field might make it “the canary in the coal mine” for the disruption AI is going to create across our way of life.Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:40) First Minister John Swinney has claimed that Scottish pensioners are set to lose £2000, with the money going to fund English social care. We gently suggest he might like to consider the existence of the Barnett formula, and explain that, when you do, the picture looks very different.(06:08 ) The Liberal Democrats have dug out data on maternity injuries that they claim is ‘a shocking indictment of our NHS maternity services’. We explore flaws in their analysis and ask an expert what a better source of data tells us about maternal healthcare.(13:20) Professor Terence Tao is good at maths. Extremely good at maths. We ask him how he feels about AI being better at maths than him.(15:49) Great news! The UK is reducing its deficit at the fastest rate of any G7 nation. Except we’re not. Ah, shame. But we are planning to! Fantastic! But we’ve got reason to be sceptical of these plans. That’s a pity. Join the FT’s Chris Giles on the economic and emotional rollercoaster that is the UK’s fiscal trajectory.(21:14) The series reaches its intellectual zenith as we ask what would happen if you ‘put the whole of the country into baked beans’. Expect back of the tin workings, cutting edge agri-science research and true public service journalism. Just don’t ask what the nadir was.Guests: Dr Spencer Thompson - Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute Professor Marian Knight - Director of the National Perinatal Epidemiology Unit at the University of Oxford Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Professor Terence Tao - Professor of Mathematics at UCLAPresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not. (07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon.(15:06) What effect did this year’s heatwaves have on excess deaths? We analyse the mortality data and explore how, despite thousands of deaths associated with the heat, 2026 is so far setting a record low mortality rate.(22:35) And finally, in an ‘and finally’ story to end all ‘and finally’ stories, we finally ask how many times the world population can fit into Loch Ness. And Lake Baikal. And, finally, the Caspian Sea. Guests: Heidi Karjalainen – Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Stuart McDonald – Partner and Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at consultancy firm Lane Clark & Peacock Duncan Weldon – Economist and author of ‘Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine’ Dr Keith Still – Director of Crowd Risk Analysis Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill, Kateryna Pavlyuk Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard ARCHIVE: The Tucker Carlson Show, YouTube

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys?(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers.(21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover.Guests: Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford Professor Dot Bennett, Professor of Cell Biology at City St. George's, University of London Dr Ramsay Bowden, Consultant in Clinical Genetics at Cambridge University HospitalsPresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Kateryna Pavlyuk Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.Guests: Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man)Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions.Guests: Dr Chris Vernazza - head of the School of Dental Sciences at Newcastle University Daisy Christodoulou - Director of Education at No More Marketing Dr Alexandru Marcoci - Assistant Professor of Global Risk and Resilience at the University of CambridgePresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.Guests: Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts. From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Sue Maillot

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: [email protected]: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times.If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: [email protected]: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon