Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with cohost emeritus and Lawfare Research Director Alan Rozenshtein, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Fission Accomplished.” After nearly four months of war, the United States and Iran have reached a deal to end the conflict—with Trump declaring it “complete” and authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a formal signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. But the agreement leaves enormous questions unresolved, from the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium to sanctions relief to whether the ceasefire extends to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon. Is this the durable peace Trump claims, or a fragile pause papering over the hardest issues?“Model Misbehavior.” Days after Anthropic publicly released its powerful new Claude Fable 5 model, the Commerce Department imposed export controls barring any foreign national—inside or outside the U.S.—from accessing it, forcing the company to disable the model worldwide. The administration says Anthropic recklessly refused to fix a dangerous jailbreak; Anthropic says it was a narrow, non-serious vulnerability and the order is a misunderstanding. What does this episode tell us about the government’s expanding use of export controls on AI—and its increasingly adversarial relationship with one of the country’s leading labs?“Bad Vibrations.” In one of her final acts as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard rescinded two Biden-era intelligence assessments that had cast doubt on whether a foreign adversary was behind “Havana Syndrome,” the mysterious ailments afflicting U.S. spies and diplomats. Gabbard’s office says the prior assessments cherry-picked intelligence to support a predetermined conclusion; critics worry about a politically motivated rewrite of analytic findings on the way out the door. What should we make of this last-minute reversal, and what does it mean for the future of the Havana syndrome debate—and Gabbard’s legacy as DNI?In object lessons, Tyler remains steadfast in his mission to ensure that no one ever runs out of podcasts, this week plugging A Whole Other Country, a discovery from Tribeca Festival Audio. Alan embraces peak dad-tech with his bbq upgrade—a new, after-market temperature controller. Scott savors a delightfully spicy Supreme Court dust-up in FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. And Julia celebrates her mug, an appropriate mainstay during her post-White-House-PDB “deep state therapy hour.”To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Roberts, Michael Feinberg, and Troy Edwards to talk through the week’s big warrant-related national security news, including:“Tulsi Went Down to Georgia, She Was Looking for a Vote to Steal.” This past week, the FBI executed a warrant to search Fulton County’s election center for ballots and equipment related to the 2020 election, with the help of an unlikely senior administration official: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who was reportedly there in-person at the order of President Trump. Observers are concerned that the search is the beginning of a broader effort to relitigate the 2020 election—especially as Trump calls for Republicans in Congress to “nationalize elections” in advance of the November mid-terms. What do we know about the legal basis for this search? And what does it tell us about what the Trump administration has planned for November?“I Hear the Jury’s Still Out on the Fourth Amendment.” Over the past week, whistleblowers have revealed that ICE has issued a series of internal memos to agents advising that they do not need judicial warrants to detain or search the homes of people suspected of being undocumented immigrants. Instead, ICE has attempted to side-step the regular judicial process by suggesting that agents only need an administrative warrant, a controversial move that will almost certainly be challenged in court. What do we think of ICE’s decision to shift to such a legally dubious policy, and where do we expect it to go from here?“Ex Post Justification.” Last month, the FBI conducted a search on the home of Washington Post reporter Hannah Natanson as part of an investigation into alleged leaks by a Defense Department contractor. During the search, agents seized Natanson’s personal and professional devices, which drew concern from media outlets and civil liberty groups over potential First Amendment and privacy violations. A magistrate judge has now ordered that the FBI cannot access Natanson’s materials at least for now, while some of these issues are litigated. How should federal law enforcement balance the need to conduct leak investigations with press freedoms? And is this case on the right side of the line?In object lessons, sometimes all you can do is cry: Molly is remembering better days for the Washington Post and mourning the fall of a once-great paper. Sometimes all you can do is get lost in the music: Mike is celebrating the still-great Miles Davis with the long-awaited release of The Complete Miles Davis Live at the Plugged Nickel 1965 on vinyl. Sometimes all you can do is laugh: Scott is delighting in his former State Department colleague’s new Substack, Ridiculocracy. And sometimes, all you can do is wear something fabulous: Troy is modeling the new wardrobe must-have for the “Government in Exile.”To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with co-host emeritus Shane Harris and Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower and Loren Voss to talk through yet another big week in national security, including:“Minnesota N(ICE).” Amidst ongoing tensions over the Trump administration’s hyper aggressive immigration enforcement tactics in Minnesota, the Justice Department has issued subpoenas to at least five state Democratic officials—including Governor Tim Walz—investigating alleged efforts to obstruct or not cooperate with federal efforts. Some say it’s an intimidation tactic; to others, it seems to be laying the foundation for an invocation of the Insurrection Act. What should we make of these most recent developments in Minnesota?“Fed Up.” Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced in a video that the Federal Reserve had received subpoenas from the Department of Justice as part of a criminal inquiry into his congressional testimony regarding cost overruns in the ongoing renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. Powell called out the probe as an effort to undermine the Fed’s independence, and both markets and members of Congress have had a negative response. And the Supreme Court may follow, as it’s set to hear oral arguments in the related case of Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook, whom Trump had previously sought to fire “for cause” on the basis of similarly unproven criminal allegations. Why did the Trump administration take this step when it did? And how might it affect the outcome of the Cook case?“The Sound and the Fury.” Recent media reports have revealed that the Department of Defense has spent at least a year testing a device that may have been the source of a mysterious illness that has affected U.S. diplomats and personnel stationed around the world since 2016. This revelation has inevitably called into question past intelligence community assessments that such symptoms were unlikely to be the result of actions by a hostile adversary and resurrected controversies around how affected U.S. personnel have been treated. What should we now make of the so-called Havana Syndrome? And how might these new revelations affect U.S. foreign relations?In object lessons, Anna is channeling her inner British spy with a recommendation of season 2 of The Night Manager. Loren is channeling some inner peace with a recommendation of the Snoo. Scott is changing the channel to the bizarre French animated comedy Grizzy & the Lemmings. And Shane is considering a style change a la Ted Danson in A Man on the Inside.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Molly Roberts for a special deep-dive into the intervention in Venezuela, including:“A Hop, Skip, and Jump Across the Rubicon.” This past weekend, the Trump administration took the step that Trump has been threatening for months: he deployed special operations to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the United States for criminal prosecution. The targeted operation was only hours long and resulted in no American fatalities, though more than 70 people in Venezuela were reportedly killed. The Trump administration has described it as a “law enforcement” operation. But what was it really? And where did he get the authority to do it?“A Truly Extraordinary Rendition.” By Monday, Maduro and his wife were in New York being arraigned on an array of drug- and weapons-related conspiracy charges. But prosecuting a head of state—albeit one not recognized by the United States—presents certain unique challenges. How should we expect the criminal case to proceed? “Running in Place.” President Trump has asserted that he and his advisers are now going to “run” Venezuela. But he’s left Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, in place, in lieu of the opposition movement the United States and many other countries have recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate government. Trump and his advisers seem intent on dictating terms to Venezuela through the “leverage” provided them by the ongoing quarantine over Venezuela’s oil, and potentially the threat of additional military action. But can this light-touch strategy succeed? In object lessons, (notably Chicagoan) Natalie delights in her long-standing admiration of The New Yorker with Netflix’s documentary “The New Yorker at 100.” Molly approaches Trump’s takeover of D.C. golf courses with a pitch for Knotty by Nature’s wooden putters. Scott honors the 5th anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol with a recommendation of Ellie Silverman’s moving profile of Nathan Tate in the Washington Post. And Ben honors the same anniversary with both a revisiting of Lawfare's narrative podcast series The Aftermath, and, relatedly, a surprise interview by Holly Berkley Fletcher with one of the attack’s most infamous perpetrators. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein and Ari Tabatabai to talk through a few of the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Once You Pop, You Can’t Stop.” The Trump administration has given a green light to Nvidia to export its powerful H200 chips to China, opening a potentially significant new market while jumpstarting China’s strategically significant AI industry—or, perhaps, making it reliant on U.S. technology. What explains this decision? And how does it align with the Trump administration’s broader reframing of strategic competition with China as a primarily economic problem, as reflected in its recent National Security Strategy?“Lavatories of Democracy.” Late last week, President Trump signed an executive order setting up a number of mechanisms intended to assert federal preemption over and otherwise deter state efforts to regulate the development and use of AI—an executive branch-only effort that followed a failed push to insert a related legislative provision into year-end omnibus legislation. How effective is this measure likely to be? And how wise is it to try and bar the states from regulating AI development and use in the first place?“Some Things You Can’t Make Light Of.” Over the weekend, a pair of gunmen inspired by the Islamic State executed a brutal massacre at a Hanukkah event on Australia’s Bondi Beach, killing 15 people and injuring 40. The violence has shocked Australia, a country with strict gun control laws where incidents of anti-semitism have been on the rise, as in much of the world. What is there to learn from the attack and its aftermath? And what could its ramifications be, both in Australia and further abroad?In object lessons, Alan tells us what the buzz is—seeing Jesus Christ Superstar live. Scott, heavy with Christmas spirit, shares his grandmother’s recipe for sour cream coffee cake (remember, during the holidays, dense=delicious). And Ari keeps us grounded with a recommendation of “Don’t Let’s Go To the Dogs Tonight,” a South African film about a White Zimbabwean family following the Rhodesian Bush War.Rational Security will be having its traditional end-of-year episode later this month, which will focus on listener-submitted topics and object lessons! If you have topics you want us to discuss and object lessons you want to share—whether serious or frivolous—be sure to send them to rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org by Dec. 21!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.