The David McWilliams Podcast

Ireland’s budget surplus is €9 billion, but the Department of Finance reckons €23 billion of the €34 billion in corporation tax is transient AI-boom money. Strip it out and we’re looking at a €13-14 billion deficit, heading for €20 billion by 2029. Meanwhile we’ve just pumped €7.4 billion of tax cuts and handouts into an economy already at full employment. Recorded live from New York, where financiers are getting twitchy about an AI bubble: US long-term rates are creeping towards 6%, and superscalers now gobble up 17% of the capital the Treasury needs. We ask whether Ireland is Norway or Nigeria when it comes to managing a windfall, why a hard budget focuses the mind, and why a rotating Taoiseach and a split Department of Finance add up to ordering two tiramisus because the voucher is free. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dublin prices have fallen 5.2% last year, the biggest drop since 2014, and the buyer's strike is real. The premium over asking has shrunk from 7% to 2.6%, and the average couple on €108k can borrow just enough for a €484k home when a three-bed semi in Dublin asks €635k. We break down why: young people are maxed out, we're still building 1980s houses for a 2020s population, and the force driving prices this time is people, not credit like in 2008. Plus the Spanish eviction story that had Madrid in uproar, and why "the cure for high prices is high prices." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can a generous welfare state and large-scale immigration coexist? Fresh research says it depends on who arrives and what kind of welfare state they arrive in. In the UK, an average migrant couple needs a primary earner in the 55th percentile to pay their way. In Germany, it's the 28th. In Ireland, our back-of-envelope sums say the 65th, or about €62,000 a year. We break down why Ireland's tax and welfare system, where someone on €27,000 gets €11,000 back from the state and someone on €104,000 pays in €40,000, changes the whole debate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode provides a midterm assessment of the Irish economy, exploring the disconnect between record-breaking macroeconomic data and the lived experience of the public. We analyse the "Ed Sheeranization" of Ireland,the delicate balance between American corporate reliance and European political identity, and the systemic risks posed by the global AI arms race. From "Dutch disease" to the challenges of economic gluttony, we examine why Ireland’s future is now entirely in its own hands. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we analyse the collapse of Ireland's night-time economy, noting that 2,205 pubs, one in four nationwide, have closed since 2005. With regional closure rates hitting 37% in Limerick and 33% in Cork, the discussion highlights how high excise duties and archaic licensing laws are strangling a $4 billion industry that supports 92,000 jobs. The episode explores why a country that markets itself on fun is systematically shutting down its social infrastructure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we’re diving into a story that wasn't on anyone’s bingo card: 50,000 people breaching one of the most fortified borders in the world in a single weekend. We’re talking about "demographic warfare," the new reality where migration is weaponised to pull the strings of global politics. From the lanyard class in Brussels to the average dude on the street, the gap over immigration is turning into a chasm, and the European Union is starting to fray at the seams. We look at the geopolitical axis between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Rabat, and ask the big question: can the European project survive when its borders become the ultimate battlefield? To understand the economy, you have to understand human nature.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Theoretical physicist Matt Fenlon joins the podcast to expose the systemic lack of transparency in Irish public expenditure. As the state budget doubles to €133 billion, Fenlon discusses the black hole in procurement, the surge in opaque consultancy fees, and how a Golden Thread of data could finally bring accountability to government spending. This conversation explores why the Irish state struggles to measure value for money and what happens when a bureaucracy becomes larger than the political class meant to manage it. Check out the spending tracker discussed in the episode at: statespend.ie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.