The Rules of Investing

Dr David Allen from Plato Investment Management examines how behavioural biases shape investment decisions. His presentation covers overconfidence, the hot hand fallacy, loss aversion, anchoring, base rates, herding and confirmation bias. Topics include: What a sharp rebound in short positions taught Allen about complacency. Why he questions the persistence of exceptional company growth. How waiting to break even can influence decisions about losing holdings. How a hypothetical IPO price can become a valuation anchor. Why the search for the next NVIDIA should include historical success rates. How Plato uses automated red flags to challenge company assessments. Allen concludes with the practical checks he advocates: express conviction as a probability, seek evidence that could disprove the thesis, reassess the portfolio from cash and systematise the investment process. Chapters 0:00 The seven deadly sins of investing 1:45 Overconfidence: how good an investor are you? 5:52 The hot hand fallacy: chasing exceptional growth 8:08 Loss aversion: the urge to break even 10:47 Anchoring: when a price shapes your valuation 11:40 Base rates: could this be the next Nvidia? 14:09 Herding: the pull of the crowd 15:38 Confirmation bias and company red flags 17:21 Building a process to keep bias in check General Advice Warning Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

The winds of change are upon us. The forces currently shaping Australian and global markets feel more whipsaw and shape-shifting than ever before and investors today must contend with a far broader set of variables. As Livewire’s Chris Conway put it: "When I was coming up, admittedly many moons ago in markets, there was only three things that you needed to pay attention to have a handle on the macro, and that was inflation, interest rates, and growth. Now we have to worry about policy mistakes, housing, AI, deglobalisation and US exceptionalism, to name but a few." So is it the same game with more moving parts, or is it genuinely more complex? That’s the question we put to our panellists at Livewire Live: Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP; Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management; and Roy Keenan, co-head of Australian Fixed Income of Yarra Capital. Please note this panel was filmed 22nd September, one week prior to the RBA's September board meeting announcement. Timecodes: 00:00 - Introduction & Market Complexity Poll 01:05 - Is the RBA Risking Over-Tightening Rates? 03:04 - Inflation Persistence vs. Consumer Resilience 05:09 - What the Bond Market Signals for RBA Policy 06:52 - Predictions for the Upcoming September RBA Meeting 08:51 - Housing Market Outlook & Correction Risks 11:26 - Banking Buffers & Equity Valuations 15:18 - Government Debt, Deficits & Central Bank Independence 21:22 - Asset Allocation in a High-Deficit Environment 23:05 - The Impact of AI, Data Infrastructure & Global Trade 28:11 - Rethinking US Exceptionalism & Australian Opportunities 34:16 - Q&A: Corporate Balance Sheets, Rate Cut Calls & Credit Markets General Advice Warning Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

The ASX 200 looks expensive, economic growth is subdued, and higher interest rates are putting renewed pressure on valuations. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value left in the Australian market. At Livewire Live, First Sentier Investors’ Dushko Bajic, L1 Capital’s James Hawkins and Ausbil Investment Management’s Arden Jennings were asked where they are still finding opportunities on the ASX. All three are looking beyond the market’s largest companies, but their approaches differ considerably. Bajic is finding opportunities in businesses exposed to major investment cycles, including electrification, AI infrastructure, defence and mining. Hawkins is backing a concentrated portfolio of companies where he sees clear paths to earnings growth, alongside defensive dividend payers. Jennings, meanwhile, sees an opportunity emerging in beaten-up Australian software stocks. They also debate the outlook for interest rates, the impact of higher oil prices, what investors should avoid in the current environment and whether the ASX will be higher or lower 12 months from now. And when asked for their best ideas, they nominate three very different stocks: logistics software company WiseTech Global, electrical contractor Genus Plus and The Lottery Corporation. Time Codes 0:00 – Market backdrop: why the ASX has lagged global markets 1:16 – AI, electrification and defence plays in small caps 4:34 – Three buckets: US earnings, commodities and defensives 6:54 – Index concentration and the case for active management 10:19 – How many more rate hikes, and how to position 16:12 – Reporting season takeaways 18:08 – CSL: when all the news is in the price 19:59 – Second-half skews and results-day volatility 22:00 – Where is the value? Small industrials and resources 24:40 – Why Australian software has lagged the US 28:30 – Capital management: buybacks vs dividends 31:40 – Stock pick: WiseTech 35:10 – Stock pick: Lottery Corporation 38:02 – Stock pick: Genus Plus and the index inclusion trade 40:18 – Audience Q&A: copper and software laggards 43:00 – Where will the ASX be in 12 months? General Advice Warning Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

Soul Patts has been investing for more than a century – but CEO Todd Barlow says today's market demands a very different playbook. Speaking with Livewire Markets Co-Founder James Marlay at Livewire Live 2026, Barlow explains why Soul Patts is sitting on roughly 20% cash, why its exposure to listed equities has fallen dramatically, and why higher interest rates have raised the hurdle for taking risk. Barlow also discusses the opportunities Soul Patts missed in US technology, where it believes it has an edge in private credit, and why asset allocation can matter more than picking the next winning stock.

The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs, record IPOs are hitting the market, and investors have enjoyed a stellar three years of double-digit returns. It’s fair to say that the party in global equity markets is in full swing. The yield on the US 10-year bond has surged to 5.11% - the highest level since July 2007. We all know how that party ended. ​In this episode of The Rules of Investing, T. Rowe Price's Iona Dent explains why she believes the earnings story in equities outweighs concerns around rising bond yields and walks through the five dimensions of T. Rowe Price’s ‘bubble watch’ framework. Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSenseThis latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.