Thinkers & Ideas

In The Irrational Decision: How We Gave Computers the Power to Choose for Us, Benjamin Recht argues that the optimization and mathematical rationality we apply to every corner of modern life—from dieting to hiring to strategy—often fails when encountering the messy realities of life.Recht is a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at UC Berkeley. In his new book, he traces how a narrow conception of rationality, born from 1940s wartime computing, came to dominate decision-making across society—and shows that this approach works brilliantly in closed, controlled systems like microchip design but breaks down in the complex, unpredictable domains where most real decisions are made.In his conversation with Adam Job, senior director at the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the origins of mathematical rationality, why optimization works for microchips but not for diets, why game theory fails to describe how humans actually behave, and how leaders should think about the boundary between human and machine intelligence in the age of AI.Key topics discussed: 01:02 | What is mathematical rationality and where do we encounter it?02:49 | The origins of rational thinking in the 1940s07:18 | Where optimization works: microchips, logistics, controlled systems09:13 | Where it fails: Chernobyl, Waymo, and the limits of control13:17 | When human “qualitative irrationality” is the right answer14:59 | A framework for assigning decisions to machines vs. humans17:45 | How the boundary between human and machine decision-making will evolve19:14 | Why game theory fails to describe how humans actually behave22:07 | Kahneman vs. Klein: two views on human decision-making24:30 | What we risk losing as we outsource more decisions to AI

In Capitalism and Its Critics: A Battle of Ideas in the Modern World, John Cassidy offers a multi-century history of global capitalism, told through the eyes of its dissenters.Cassidy is a staff writer at The New Yorker and a Pulitzer Prize finalist. His new book blends biography, history, and economic analysis to reveal the roots of urgent debates the business world and society face today, as AI, climate change, and inequality are forcing us to reexamine the economic system.In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, Cassidy discusses the main historical themes of capitalism critique, why the system continues to endure, how it is being, and what its future may be in the current context of assaults on the system from both the political left and right.Key topics discussed: 01:44 | The main themes of capitalism critique04:17 | Why capitalism endures09:15 | The paradox of state capitalism14:21 | The misunderstood Luddites19:09 | Trade tensions and global economic asymmetry24:45 | The role of unpaid domestic labor in driving the capitalist system28:50 | The most surprising insights in writing the book31:33 | The future of capitalismAdditional inspirations from John Cassidy:Dot.Con: The Greatest Story Ever Sold (Harper, 2022)How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities (Picador, 2010)

In After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, Dean Spears and Michael Geruso argue that the defining demographic risk of this century is global depopulation.Spears and Geruso are both professors at the University of Texas at Austin, focusing on economic demography and development economics. In their new book, they explore the trend of falling birth rates, how it threatens human progress, and what actions may reverse this trend.In their conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss projections for global depopulation, why advances in AI and robotics will not replace humans, why fewer people may not be good for the planet, and what the implications of all this are for business leaders.Key topics discussed:01:06 | Projected global population levels06:11 | The impact of depopulation11:00 | The potential for AI and robotics to replace humans17:00 | The environmental implications of depopulation21:24 | Potential solutions to falling birth rates26:02 | Implications for business leaders28:26 | Reasons to remain hopefulAdditional inspirations from Dean Spears:Air: Pollution, Climate Change and India's Choice Between Policy and Pretence (Harper Collins Publishers India, 2019)Where India Goes: Abandoned Toilets, Stunted Development and the Costs of Caste, co-authored by Diane Coffey (Harper Collins Publishers India, 2017)

In Anointed: The Extraordinary Effects of Social Status in A Winner-Take-Most World, Toby Stuart dives deeply into the power that social status holds over us.Stuart is the Leo Helzel Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. In his new book, he explores how social status shapes everything—from who we trust and what we value, to which ideas and innovations change the world and who gets credit for their success.In his conversation with Adam Job, Senior Director at the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the cumulative effects of social status, whereby small initial differences can snowball into outsize effects. He also outlines why the social status system persists despite a prevailing distrust in elites—and how AI may yet be poised to change the system.Key topics discussed: 01:44 | The importance of social status05:15 | The role of anointment in modern times13:23 | The cumulative effects of social status19:18 | Why the social status system persists21:23 | How AI may change the role of social status24:45 | The downsides of high social status, and how to deal with them

In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World, Hal Brands illuminates the historical patterns we must understand in order to better navigate the geopolitical rivalries of the present.Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. In his new book, he traces the arc from World War I to today’s rivalries between the United States and China, and between NATO and Russia.In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses why the 20th and 21st centuries are the Eurasian (rather than the American) Era, how today’s rivalries among great powers differ from those of the past, and what global business must pay attention to in navigating current geopolitical tensions.Key topics discussed: 01:28 | The 20th and 21st centuries as the Eurasian era05:32 | The “historic achievement” of the Cold War08:34 | How today’s rivalries among great powers are different13:14 | The future of Eurasia15:59 | How global businesses can operate in a polarized geopolitical world20:13 | Reasons to be optimistic vs. pessimistic about the futureAdditional inspirations from Hal Brands:Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, co-authored by Michael Beckley (W. W. Norton & Company, 2022)The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order, co-authored by Charles Edel (Yale University Press, 2019)The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today (Yale University Press, 2019)What Good Is Grand Strategy?: Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush (Cornell University Press, 2014)

In Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that the nature of international power has fundamentally shifted from military might to economic statecraft.Fishman is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and an adjunct professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia. Previously, he served at the US State Department, leading work on economic sanctions. In his new book, he examines how governments—particularly the US’s—are increasingly using financial tools, regulatory measures, and targeted sanctions to shape international relations, secure strategic advantages, and resolve conflicts.In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the history of sanctions, how the US came to wield them so powerfully, how diplomatic back channels are navigated in applying them—and what is important for making them effective in enforcing the desired governance changes.Key topics discussed: 02:05 | The history of chokepoints and US dominance over them08:45 | The role of businesses in economic diplomacy12:17 | Navigating diplomatic back channels15:32 | The role of technology and export controls19:45 | Oil price caps as an innovation in sanctions design23:10 | The effectiveness of sanctions in enforcing governance changes27:44 | On the origins of this bookAdditional inspirations from Edward Fishman:Foreign Affairs: How Trump Could Dethrone the Dollar (April 8, 2025)