Irregular Warfare Podcast

Episode 164 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast grapples with the hidden costs of precision warfare, looking at how drone strikes affect civilian populations well beyond their immediate lethal footprint. Anchored in a study using twelve billion geocoded cell phone records from Yemen, the conversation explores how drone strikes trigger sharp spikes in civilian mobility and communication—disruptions on a scale comparable to major natural disasters—even when no civilians are physically harmed. Our guests unpack what these findings mean for the strategic logic of precision airpower and discuss the tension between tactical accuracy and perceived legitimacy on the ground. The article is here: Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records Dr. Aidan Milliff is an assistant professor of political science at The Ohio State University. His research examines how people interpret and respond to political violence. Aidan earned his PhD from MIT, where he was a member of the Security Studies Program. Lieutenant Colonel Paul Lushenko, PhD, is a globally recognized expert on artificial intelligence, autonomy, drones, and counter-drone warfare and currently serves as Chief Strategist for the U.S. military’s counter-drone efforts. He is retiring from the U.S. Army after more than two decades of leadership, including extensive service in Special Operations Forces, and is the author of four books and dozens of peer-reviewed articles. His work as both a scholar and practitioner has helped shape the international debate on emerging technologies, autonomy, drones, and the future of warfare. Alisa Laufer hosts this episode with Alexandra Chinchilla. Please reach out to the Irregular Warfare Podcast team with any questions about the episode or the broader mission of the show. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Today’s episode examines how Russian agents and local militants exploited ambiguity, weak state capacity, and fragmented local authority to transform unrest in the Donbas into an armed insurgency in 2014. At its core, it is a story about how a small group of armed actors can seize a city—and how local institutions, political legitimacy, and civil society can stop them. Dr. Celeste Wallander and Dr. Serhiy Kudelia are the guests. Summary Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, but the war began eight years earlier with the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of conflict in the Donbas. Wallander and Kudelia trace how Russian operatives converted genuine but diffuse political discontent into an armed insurgency, why militants seized some cities but failed in others, and how confusion over how to respond gave militants time to consolidate control. Their discussion traces Ukraine’s transformation from a state hampered in 2014 by fractured ties between Kyiv and local administrators and unprepared security forces to one capable of mounting a determined resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022—a transformation enabled by stronger military capacity, municipal leadership, democratic legitimacy, and civil society. They also revisit the debate over US military assistance, the Minsk process, and what outside partners can realistically accomplish when crises escalate faster than relationships, training, and logistics can be built. Dr. Celeste A. Wallander is the executive director of Penn Washington, the University of Pennsylvania’s program in Washington, D.C. From 2022 to 2025, she served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. She previously served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia and Central Asia on the National Security Council from 2013 to 2017 and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia from 2009 to 2012. She has also served as president and CEO of the U.S.-Russia Foundation and held positions at American University, Georgetown University, Harvard University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Serhiy Kudelia is a professor of political science at Baylor University. His research focuses on the onset and dynamics of insurgencies and civil wars, political regimes and regime change, and political institutions, with a geographic emphasis on Ukraine, Russia, and the former Soviet Union. He is the author of Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia’s War on Ukraine (Oxford University Press, 2025), a micro-level study based on more than one hundred interviews with participants and observers of the conflict. The book conducts a meticulous comparison of mobilization dynamics in over a dozen towns of Donbas as well as in two major cities outside of it: Kharkiv and Odesa. It examines how Russian intervention, local elites, militants, municipal officials, and civic resistance produced sharply different outcomes. The book received the American Association for Ukrainian Studies’ 2026 Book Prize. Alexandra Chinchilla is the host for this episode. Please reach out to her with any questions about the episode or IWI. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those o

Episode 143 examines what enables certain guerrilla and insurgent forces to develop genuine military effectiveness on the battlefield. Our guests discuss why ideological cohesion, social ties, and material resources alone are insufficient for insurgents to successfully implement guerrilla strategies. Drawing on historical examples and a detailed analysis of the Taliban’s evolution in Afghanistan, they argue that success depends on the professionalization of the force—particularly the recruitment, training, and empowerment of skilled small-unit combat leaders who enable effective planning, realistic training, adaptation, and task-oriented cohesion. The conversation explores broader implications for understanding insurgencies, counterinsurgency challenges, and security force assistance programs. General (Ret.) Stan McChrystal is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of Joint Special Operations Command and International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, founder of the McChrystal Group, and author of multiple books on leadership and irregular warfare. Dr. Alec Worsnop is an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Modern War Institute. His research focuses on insurgent military effectiveness, and this episode is based on his recent book titled Rebels in the Field: Cadres and the Development of Insurgent Military Power published by Oxford University Press. Kyle Atwell and Alisa Laufer are the hosts for episode 143. Please reach out to them with any questions about the episode or IWI. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners in the field of irregular warfare. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 141 examines what the role of resistance operations are in the context of the broader war in Ukraine. Our guests begin by discussing whether resistance in occupied Ukraine has been effective. They argue that “Random Acts of Resistance” are not effective. Instead, resistance activities are most impactful when well synchronized with conventional military operations. The effective use of resistance activities faces multiple challenges though, the largest being the need to synchronize not only SOF and conventional forces on the battlefield, but also to control resistance entities that are often built from the grassroots civilian population. Our guests conclude that resistance operations are important, but they play a supporting role in a broader war. LTG Andy Rohling has held multiple senior military roles in Europe, to include during the current war in Ukraine. Most relevantly he served as the Deputy Chair of the NATO Military Committee and Deputy Commanding General of United States Army Europe. Jon Armstrong is a British Army Officer and author of the article “Violent Resistance in Occupied Ukraine: An Assessment of Network Capabilities, Access, and Utility“ which this conversation is based on. He has multiple operational deployments and is a 2025 Non-Resident Fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative. Kyle Atwell and Dr. Olga Chiriac are the hosts for episode 141. Please reach out to them with any questions about the episode, the Irregular Warfare Podcast, or the IWI in Europe Program which Olga leads. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa