The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz

President Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal. The debate is fierce: does the US-Iran MOU go far enough? Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and frozen assets all remain unresolved — leaving critical questions about what any final agreement may actually deliver.Robert Greenway — military veteran, diplomat, and a key architect of the Abraham Accords — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to cut through the noise. They examine the MOU's terms, the long arc of Trump's maximum pressure campaign, and what happens if Tehran doesn't comply.

The U.S. and Israel have conducted joint military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" by Washington and "Lion's Roar" by Jerusalem, the strikes were launched on February 28 after nuclear negotiations with the regime failed to yield progress. President Trump stated that U.S. objectives are to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime." Key targets included the office compound of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Ministries of Intelligence and Defense, and the Parchin military complex, with additional strikes on regime targets in Isfahan, Tabriz, and Bandar Abbas.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu framed the operation's objectives as removing the "existential threat" posed by the Islamic Republic and creating conditions for the Iranian people to achieve regime change—calling on Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Baloch, and Ahwazi alike to "cast off the yoke of tyranny."Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes targeting U.S. bases and allies across the region, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Israel, and Bahrain—where a missile struck a facility affiliated with the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet.Today, Iran is entering a decisive phase—where economic collapse, mass unrest, and direct military pressure are converging faster than at any point since 1979. As long as theocratic extremists rule in Iran, the Middle East will remain a factory for terror, missiles, and nuclear blackmail. These strikes have sharpened urgent questions about what comes next—for the regime, the Iranian people, and regional stability.To assess fast-moving developments and their strategic implications, FDD will host a timely SITREP moderated by FDD CEO and host of The Iran Breakdown Mark Dubowitz, featuring FDD Executive Director and host of the FDD Morning Brief Jonathan Schanzer and FDD Senior Fellow and former IDF international spokesperson Jonathan Conricus.

📺: Watch this episode on YouTube here. Ronald Reagan didn’t defeat the Soviet empire with tanks — he defeated it with pressure, principle, and moral clarity. Can the same strategy work in Iran? A recent FDD Memo, “Freedom for Iran: Learning From U.S. Support for Polish Anti-Communists in the 1980s,” says that it can. Mark is joined by the Memo’s authors, Charlie Laderman and Nazee Moinian, to break down how the playbook can be applied to the Islamic Republic — a regime that fears its own citizens most — including why regime change doesn’t require invasion, how internal pressure is Tehran’s greatest weakness, and why negotiating without leverage only empowers dictators. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes — and Iran may be next.

The regime in Iran has slaughtered tens of thousands of Iranians and plunged the country into an internet blackout — and dared the world to look away. Still, President Trump warned that American support was coming as U.S. military vessels made their way to the region. And yet — the decisive moment hasn’t arrived.In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz is joined again by Rich Goldberg for a timely assessment of the waiting game: what military options are now on the table, why missiles — not nukes — may be the real center of gravity, whether negotiations are strategy or psychological warfare, and how delay reshapes deterrence, escalation, and the fate of the Iranian people. This isn’t a pause — it’s a countdown.

Iran Breakdown-ers, we're pleased to introduce you to Generation Jihad, a podcast from FDD's Long War Journal hosted by Bill Roggio.It's January 12, 2026, day 16 of the Iran protests. Bill hosts Mark on Generation Jihad to discuss whether this is the moment.Iran protest resourcesWe're tracking the Iran protests at fdd.org/iranprotests. If you're new to The Iran Breakdown, welcome. Mark's interview with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi should be your next watch. Follow FDD's Iran experts on X, like Mark, Behnam, Saeed, and Janatan...The following content is cross-postedMark Dubowitz: The regime clings to its ninth lifeAfter military defeat abroad and at home where the economy also has collapsed, the Islamic Republic is weaker than ever, and the Iranian people know it.The regime is facing a nationwide uprising unlike anything seen in decades with Iranians across class, age, and ideology back in the streets, and they’re no longer asking for reform. They’re demanding an end to the Islamic Republic itself. Meanwhile, President Trump warned that U.S. military action is on the table if the regime slaughters protesters. As we record, a brutal crackdown is underway with reports of hundreds of Iranians killed and tens of thousands arrested. Is this the moment?Bill asks FDD CEO and host Mark Dubowitz.