The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz

To understand the war unfolding with Iran today — and where it could lead — you have to understand the history that brought the Middle East to this moment.In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with acclaimed historian Simon Sebag Montefiore, author of The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East, to put today’s conflict with Iran in its deeper historical context.When did this war really begin — with October 7, the direct 2025 US-Israel-Iran confrontation, or the Islamic Revolution of 1979? Montefiore traces the forces that shaped the modern Middle East and examines how Khomeini’s revolution transformed Iran, political Islam, and the regional order.The conversation explores what the current war is actually about, how victory should be measured, and whether external pressure can break the Islamic Republic. Mark and Simon also look beyond the current regime: If the Islamic Republic eventually disappears, which parts of Iran’s regional ambitions disappear with it — and which are rooted more deeply in Iranian history, geography, and nationalism?Are we witnessing another violent turn in the Middle East — or the end of the revolutionary cycle that began with Khomeini in 1979? And if that era really is ending, what comes next?

The Islamic Republic may discover that surviving the war was the easy part. Its military has been mauled, its deterrence shattered, its proxies weakened, and now an already dysfunctional economy faces relentless pressure — with no victory to rally around and no economic rescue on the horizon.On the latest episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD’s Miad Maleki, a former senior Treasury sanctions official, to explain why the regime’s greatest threat may no longer come from American bombers or Israeli jets, but from an economic crisis it cannot bomb, repress, or print its way out of.