Disorder

This week Jason is joined by old friend and former Disorder co-host Arthur Snell, former British diplomat, host of Behind the Lines, and author of Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It. Jason and Arthur start with the seemingly never-ending Iran war. Has Trump’s threatened “economic D-Day” achieved anything? Has it really even been implemented? Jason argues that Iran could become America’s Suez moment: not another Vietnam, but an debacle exposing the limits of American power and its inability to Order the world without its allies. They then turn to the U.S. midterms, whether the Democrats can retake Congress, and their continuing failure to articulate a coherent national message. And behind both American and British politics lurks another constraint: the bond market. With rising borrowing costs limiting what governments can actually do, could markets and independent institutions provide some of the feedback loops that politics increasingly lacks? Next up is Andy Burnham’s back-to-school moment. Can he rebuild Britain’s relationship with Europe, stand up to Trump and make better use of Britain’s considerable geopolitical leverage? Jason proposes an “elbows up rule”: medium powers confronting Trump need to articulate clear red lines and stick to them rather than succumbing to appeasement. Finally, Arthur draws on his book Elemental to explain how the devastating Nepal floods reveal a much bigger climate and geopolitical problem. Billions depend on water originating in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, potentially intensifying tensions between China, India and Pakistan. Like Libya’s Derna disaster, it illustrates an Enduring Disorder: foreseeable risks that fragmented institutions repeatedly fail to prepare for. To Order the Disorder, Arthur calls for rebuilding British soft power through refunding the BBC World Service, British Council and universities, while Jason proposes a clear Burnham Doctrine on Britain’s place in the world. And despite the climate crisis, Arthur offers some grounds for optimism: much of the technology needed for the energy transition already exists — the challenge is turning it into policies governments can actually deliver and then maintaining the will to implement them. For Mega Orderers Club members, Jason and Arthur continue with a bonus discussion on the Liberal Democrats and their place in Britain’s rapidly changing political landscape. Join the club at disordershow.com/club to get that immediately. SHOWNOTE LINKS: Join the Mega Orderers Club and get the Arthur Snell intro to who are the Lib Dems, what are they doing, and what do they believe in:https://www.disordershow.com/club Arthur Snell’s Elementalhttps://www.panmacmillan.com/authors/arthur-snell/elemental/9781529097016 Arthur Snell’s Behind the Lineshttps://shows.acast.com/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell Arthur’s Not All Doom Substackhttps://arthursnell.substack.com/ Join the Mega Orderers Clubhttps://www.disordershow.com/club Disorder on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Ordering the Disorder on Substackhttps://natoandtheged.substack.com/

This week, Jason is joined by esteemed British historian and author, Simon Sebag Montefiore, to discuss his latest book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Jason and Sebag’s discussion ranges over centuries of history and ping pongs back and forth on myriad topics. It tries to make the peripheral central by putting the non-Arab, non-Sunni groups at the centre of understanding the Modern Middle East. They unpack how the Middle East became the Disorderly region we know today and where to frame current conflicts historically to understand certain deeper dynamics, especially as pertains to minorities and their ambitions for statehood and peoplehood. They focus a lot on WWI and the dynamics that emerged from it and shaped the history of the Kurds, Armenians, Turks, and fleeing Ionian Greeks. These were the dynamics of population transfer and ethnonationalism that destroyed the old Middle East of the Millet System. They try to avoid the overdone Israel/Palestine dynamics which occasionally shed more heat than light. With this framing in place, they look at what tragedies took us to the current pointless and self-defeating Iran war, and where we might go from here. To get part 2 with bonus content, and hear it before anyone else, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: To get Simon’s book https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cauldron-Making-Modern-Middle-East/dp/1399634895/  For more Disorder about the history of the Middle East, try: What is Zionism and is it still relevant today? Israel’s Independence Day with Phil Rosenberg  https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ug89R0zHLumkldJX5Cmo2 And Sir Vincent Fean The Case for Palestinian Statehood: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/listen/disorder/ep74-part2-the-case-for-palestinian-statehood  And the Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/listen/disorder/ep36-part-i-former-armenian-president-sarkissian-on-armenian-genocide-remembrance-day This episode is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network, for more visit https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

To celebrate Jason's 2nd place finish at the World Backgammon Championships, we're rerunning a classic episode of Disorder; centred around the game itself and the lessons it provides for the Mega Ordering community. If you didn’t hear this when it came out in July, 2025, I think you’ll enjoy checking it out now. We’ve heard about Putin bluffing. Abraham Lincoln was an accomplished poker player and Churchill dabbled at chess. But to our mind it is Backgammon that best reflects both politics and life decisions. It’s a game of skill, luck, reversals and socializing. So could world leaders use Backgammon to help them develop their empathy, strategic thinking, resilience, and make better decisions? In this conversation, Jason Pack is joined by Marc Olsen – fellow Backgammon Grandmaster, former professional footballer, and the CEO and Founder of Backgammon Galaxy. Together they explore the multifaceted world of Backgammon. They unpack how it is a metaphor for life, decision-making, and the balance between order and disorder.  They discuss Marc's journey from professional football to becoming the CEO of Backgammon Galaxy, the conformism of Scandinavian society, and how a rebellious nature led Marc to discover Austrian school economics. Plus: the emotional aspects of learning through games, the relevance of game theory in the Enduring Disorder, and the unique features of Backgammon that make it a rich learning experience. And as they Order they Disorder – how Backgammon can foster empathy and social skills, and the potential of Backgammon as a tool for cross-cultural connection, especially in the Middle Eastern region. Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow  Show Notes Links: The World Backgammon Championship Final featuring Jason Pack against Petko Kostadinov : The World Backgammon Championship Final 2026 For more on Backgammon Galaxy visit - https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/  To watch the 2024 World Backgammon Championship Final commentated by Marc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d7-ky1bROk  For a very fun video produced by Marc and featuring Jason about the World Backgammon Championship: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TebkgCNS7OI  For Marc on the Gentleman Scofflaw podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-gentleman-scofflaw-podcast/id1216891117?i=1000650103880 

For summer recess, we return to our favourite episodes of all time where we explain the very essence of our conception of the Enduring Disorder as a period where international institutions tend not to work and where coordinating the allies to stay on the same page about things like defence, climate change, and taxation is a tremendous challenge. The rare exception is NATO, it mostly works even if Trump rails against it. This episode explains why. If you didn’t hear this when it came out in October, 2023, I think you’ll enjoy checking it out now. Nation states no longer work effectively in tandem. Gone are the days of hegemonic US power directly ordering the allies. Furthermore, groups like the UN are ineffective, with disruptors often calling the shots. However, NATO stands apart as an example of how countries can work together successfully and how a global institution can remain largely uncontroversial, while doing serious coordinating work to solve real world problems. In this episode our hosts and guests relate their perspectives about what NATO stands for, its strengths and limitations, and the threats it faces. Former NATO Deputy Sec General, Jamie Shea tells about how the organisation worked in the Balkans and Afghanistan, while Kori Schake mulls over the role of the US as NATO’s hegemonic leader. Timothy Garton Ash comments on distinctions between NATO and the EU especially as pertains to values like liberty. Finally, Charles Kupchan examines why Russia chooses to actively disorder. Charles and Jason disagree agreeable on China’s role as an orderer vs. disorderer. For ad free listening, early release episodes and more bonus content, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: For more on Kori Schake, visit https://www.aei.org/profile/kori-schake/ For more on Jamie Shea, visit https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/jamie-shea Get Timothy Garton Ash’s book, Homelands at - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/442543/homelands-by-ash-timothy-garton/9781847926616 For more on Charles Kupchan, visit https://www.cfr.org/expert/charles-kupchan

For summer recess, we return to our favourite episodes of all time where we explain the very essence of our conception of the Enduring Disorder as a period in which Disordering Neo-populists have come to power and have made the world more disorderly so they can stay in power. If you didn’t hear this when it came out on Sept 19, 2023--when we launched--I think you’ll enjoy checking it out now. Over the past few decades leaders like Trump, Orban, and Bolsonaro have ridden a wave of popular outrage to rise to power. But what came first: the Neo-Populists or the era of Global Enduring Disorder? In this episode we chart the rise of the Neo-Populists, their impact on global order, and what we can do to stop them. Sean Wilentz explains the difference between real populism (like Bernie Sanders) and ‘faux’ or neo-populists (like Trump), while Anne Applebaum takes us through the missed opportunities and co-ordination failures of the post-Cold War years. For ad free listening, early release episodes and more bonus content, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: For more from Anne Applebaum, visit https://linktr.ee/anneapplebaum For more on Sean Wilentz, visit https://history.princeton.edu/people/sean-wilentz For more on Jonathan Winer, visit https://www.mei.edu/profile/jonathan-m-winer For more on Jamie Shea, visit https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/jamie-shea

This week, Jason is joined by a real life Mega-Orderer--Jamison Firestone, acclaimed lawyer, author, and activist. He witnessed firsthand Russia's descent from the promise of the Yeltsin years into the corruption and authoritarianism of Vladimir Putin's regime.Firestone was also the employer and close colleague of Sergei Magnitsky, whose death after exposing a massive tax fraud inspired the Magnitsky sanctions now used by democracies around the world to target corrupt officials and human rights abusers.Jamison joins Disorder to discuss his powerful new memoir, Rule of Lies, and to unpick piece by piece from his insider tales how Russia's descent into kleptocracy happened.Jason and Jamison also reflect on their mutual friend Sir Bill Browder, the legacy of the martyred Alexei Navalny, and why Navalny's extraordinary moral courage bears comparison with figures such as Socrates and even Jesus. As they Order the Disorder, they turn from diagnosis to solutions. Should the West finally confiscate the roughly $300 billion of frozen Russian state assets? Why has Belgium remained one of the principal obstacles? What can be done to make it give up the Goose that lays the Golden Egg? And could coordinated international action overcome the legal and political barriers? If democracies are serious about confronting authoritarianism, this conversation argues that defending the rule of law requires more than sanctions—it requires the courage to act. Producer: Sam Cluley Subscribe to our Substack https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube -https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links:Jamison Firestone:https://jamisonfirestone.com/ Buy Rule of Lies:https://www.harpercollins.com/products/rule-of-lies-jamison-r-firestone Justice for Sergei Magnitsky:https://russian-untouchables.com/eng/Punish Putin campaign:https://punishputin.com/ Listen to our first Disorder episode with Sir Bill Browder:https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece The Magnitsky Act (U.S. Congress):https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/house-bill/4405

In this episode of Disorder latest, Jason updates on the for-ever war in Iran and the Straight of Hormuz and how the disorder we are experiencing over there is conceptually connected to the bigger concepts of the Disorder pod: the Global Enduring Disorder and the rise of the Neopopulists. He does this via a conversation on the Disinformation Detox with Nolan Higdon, which we air with our own intro.    Producer: Sam Cluely    Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow    Show Notes Links:    The U.S. and Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies https://www.npr.org/2026/07/15/nx-s1-5894582/us-iran-updates     Disorder is through to the next judging round for the News, Politics & Current Affairs category of the British Podcast Awards. You can see the full longlist here: https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/longlist-2026       Vote for Disorder in the British Podcast Awards listeners choice here https://www.britishpodcastawards.com/voting     Watch The Founding Fathers were Mega Orderers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vFfnhFNsJ0       Subscribe to the Disinfo Detox: https://www.youtube.com/@DisinfoDetox    Subscribe to Gaslight Gazette: ⁠https://www.nolanhigdon.substack.com⁠     Learn more at: ⁠https://www.NolanHigdon.com