Dwarkesh Podcast

New episode with military historian Si Sheppard.The conquests of the Aztec and Inca empires might be the most shocking events in human history.Hernan Cortés and some hundreds of Conquistadors landed on a new continent they knew basically nothing about, and within 2 and a half years, conquered the 6 million strong Aztec empire.Then, a decade later, Francisco Pizarro did the same thing to an Incan Empire of some 10 million inhabitants.In both cases, the Conquistadors consistently beat native armies while being literally 100x (or even in some cases 1000x) outnumbered - and in many cases, did so without taking a single casualty.And they did this with 99% of their military forces being made up of the very natives they were trying to subjugate.We often forget how wild human history is. People talk about AI takeover as if it would be some crazy, unprecedented sci-fi outcome. But this would not be the first time an alien force whose motives the defenders barely understand use more advanced technology and diplomatic cunning to outmaneuver and then take over a much larger and long established existing order.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Jane Street’s intern projects are even more ambitious than I realized. One intern spent his summer researching LLM memorization, figuring out how to quantify and reduce it. This matters because, when Jane Street tests their models on historical data, they need to know that performance reflects predictive power, not just memorized outcomes. Another intern spent his time developing a new activation checkpointing scheme: his custom version ended up outperforming PyTorch’s native one. If you want to read about more 2026 intern projects or apply for Jane Street’s 2027 internships, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Grok Bot can tackle the tasks you’ve been meaning to handle but just haven’t gotten around to. For example, SpaceXAI recently gave Grok Bot access to their procurement contracts, vendor spend, and usage data: it ended up identifying over $100,000 in potential savings for them. I decided to try this on my own spend, and Grok Bot found over $5,000 of savings for me, even though I run a pretty small team. Try it out yourself at x.ai/bot* Antithesis solves one of the biggest problems with traditional software testing: to test for a bug, you first have to be able to imagine it. Antithesis runs your system through thousands of parallel histories and steers your tests for you, injecting faults and generally trying to make everything as adversarial as possible. That way, your software gets tested against scenarios you’d never imagine but that could still arise in the real world. Learn more at antithesis.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Cortés’s conquest of the Aztecs(00:22:39) – Pizarro’s conquest of the Inca(00:26:59) – Explaining Conquistador military superiority(00:34:39) – Could the natives have beat the Conquistadors?(00:48:56) – The Aztecs and Incas did not get to learn from each other(00:56:11) – Why Spain still lost in the long run(01:07:47) – Why didn’t the Aztecs/Incas adapt better to European warfare?(01:14:16) – Conquistador motivation(01:26:22) – Why Mughal India also couldn’t play the Europeans off each other(01:33:42) – Diplomacy was just as important as technology This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

New episode with John Schulman, Beren Millidge and Charlie O’Neill. I got together with some of the most insightful AI researchers I know who are at the openish companies, because I wanted to hear the details of what's actually happening at the frontier and what comes next.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Antithesis helps you trust your code. As agents generate more and more of your software, the bottleneck shifts from your engineers actually writing code to verifying it. Antithesis does that testing for you. Ron Minsky, who co-leads Jane Street’s tech group, told me that Antithesis was able to help his team shake out bugs in software that had already undergone heavy review. If you want to see how it fits into your development process, go to antithesis.com/dwarkesh* Grok Bot has been a great way to hand off tasks. My team uses it as a producer: whenever my editor posts a rough cut of an interview in Slack, Grok Bot opens the transcript on its own computer, matches my notes to the exact moments they refer to, and uses a file of my preferences to suggest edits. Then it sends me its top clip candidates so I can review everything from my phone, which saves my editors from sorting through hours of footage. Try Grok Bot for yourself at x.ai/bot* Jane Street just launched its most ambitious competition yet: design a protocol-emulator ASIC. Basically, if you have a chip you want to test outside of a live system, you should be able to connect it to your design and have it simulate realistic traffic. Jane Street wants general-purpose, reprogrammable designs that can work across multiple protocols and remain useful as new ones emerge. The most novel submissions will actually get taped out, and the winners will receive a physical copy! The competition is open until January 18, 2027, and teams are encouraged. To get started download the template code at janestreet.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Steelmanning the case against RSI(00:18:39) – What’s driving the Chinese labs’ progress(00:28:06) – How will automated AI researchers be trained(00:33:51) – Will long-horizon RL elicit AGI?(00:45:24) – The sim-to-real gap(01:00:33) – How much progress is explained by data?(01:18:03) – Why is RL working so well?(01:24:54) – Move 37 and entropy collapse(01:28:32) – Rapid-fire timelines This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com